Crowd Calendar - which is most reliable?

Sounds like you know what you're doing and you have great attitudes about everything, which will definitely help you enjoy yourselves :) Some people get into a negative mood over things and never get out of that, which will inevitably lead to a disappointing trip. Have fun!!!

Thanks & totally agree!
Appreciate all the replies! :flower3:
 
There was a time when crowd calendars worked, but now none of them seem to. I was still holding out hope on the crowd calendars until I saw Touring Plans give July 4th a 6/10.
Last year Touring plans gave days on Thanksgiving week 3's, 4's, and 5's. Not sure what historical data they were mining from, but who on earth thinks THAT is going to happen? (Surprise -- they were all 10s)
 
I looked at quite a few of them before our trip and they all changed as the dates got closer lol. It seemed about as predictable and changed as much as my weather app.
 
TP crowd calendars are garbage. As late as May 4th they said Hollywood Studios would be a 1 on Sept 3rd. The fact that they would publish that means no one should ever pay any attention to them.

When you say crowds you have to specify what you're looking for. If you want low crowds then go in off times like mid-late April [after Easter], May before Memorial Day, September, and January and February outside of some big events like the marathon or holidays like President's Day. If you want low wait times then you're probably better off going during a "busier" time because the parks will be operating at full capacity. As an example you can run 2 sides of BTMR but during low crowd periods Disney will often run just 1 in the morning. That means they're reducing capacity by 50% even though the crowds haven't been reduced by 50%. It's also why 8am opens are better than 9am because less people will get up and go to the parks that early.

If you want a simple calendar look at Disney's ticket prices. Cheaper days will have less people but that also could mean waiting more. If you want a calendar that's a little more involved take a look at Your First Visit's Crowd Calendar and ranked weeks. Apparently the Dis doesn't like Dave so you have to Google it yourself. You should note that Dave's site is obviously catering more towards first time visitors but a lot of the advice holds true even if you're a returner and he will point that out in his posts.

In TP defense they had a blog post out that day that stated they were updating their algorithm and the crowd calendar predictions would be inaccurate for a short while. Then it bounced back up to whatever it is currently.
 


For when my family is going next I think they are spot on. 10 on every day from Dec 26 to Jan 1. Lol. I knew that without an algorithm!
I do use TP for planning, I like to see how much of their plan differs from ours.
 
TP has its faults, but I subscribe to it because I do like it's other planning features. It's still a good product.

Agreed--I just renewed my subscription. While I'm not relying on their predicted levels as much anymore, I would be lost trying to make Touring Plans without their wait time info or make decisions in the parks without Lines!
 


In TP defense they had a blog post out that day that stated they were updating their algorithm and the crowd calendar predictions would be inaccurate for a short while. Then it bounced back up to whatever it is currently.

They ALWAYS have a post like this though. And this is coming from someone who joined TP in 2004 when the site first started and has a current subscription. I just pick a park, have a good plan and FP+ selections and go with the flow. And refresh on MDE when I can.
 
I use four different trackers and look for consistency in prediction either high or low. Basically buckets into good, avoid, or flip a coin
 
I generally agree that in these times, crowds calendars are very hit and miss. The main thing I find is that the issue lies in "What is your idea of crowded?" My family are well adjusted to crowded days, we use FP's plus we go every year so if we have to skip something we are not too disappointed. That to me is the very basis of the whole issue. To some "like us" 4 is empty. But others may find it packed. Fact is to my family we have been waay long ago in the offseason and it was empty "Oct 97" We find the crowd actually adds to the Magic in some aspects. But hey remember A bad day at Disney is better that a good day at work!
 
Touring Plans back in the old days was spot on most of the time with crowd level predictions. I still subscribe, but they have been way off on crowd calendars more often than not on the trips that I've done in the last few years. The touring plans and app have help me deal with the crowds, but it's not like clockwork like it used to be. Two years ago the 6 level predictions for most of the parks ended up 8s and 9s for November (lots of people rescheduled trips because of hurricane Irma to my week that year). My MK day that was supposed to be an 8 on a Saturday in January this year was a 10 (crazy busy andno one predicted that the special NFL event would bring so many people to the MK that Saturday, etc.). My days at AK and MK this January were actually spot on in crowd level predictions (5 and 6 levels during the week). It's definitely hit or miss.
 
When you say crowds you have to specify what you're looking for. If you want low crowds then go in off times like mid-late April [after Easter], May before Memorial Day, September, and January and February outside of some big events like the marathon or holidays like President's Day. If you want low wait times then you're probably better off going during a "busier" time because the parks will be operating at full capacity. As an example you can run 2 sides of BTMR but during low crowd periods Disney will often run just 1 in the morning. That means they're reducing capacity by 50% even though the crowds haven't been reduced by 50%. It's also why 8am opens are better than 9am because less people will get up and go to the parks that early.

This is an excellent point. "Crowds" and "Wait times" used to be synonymous, but not anymore. It's why you will hear people say January is now crowded. It's not more crowded, but the wait times are often longer due to yielded capacity. Wait times are more important to me, and since I'm a teacher we only travel during school breaks. We have no problem because everything is running at capacity, there are sometimes 2 shows a night and park hours are the longest, but the parks are technically more crowded.
 
I will be looking for a consensus among three crowd calendars -- or the closest thing to a consensus. I figure that`s a lot better than picking your park out of a hat!
 
None of them are accurate anymore. About as predictable as picking all the numbers for the Power Ball. For the longest time, I used Easy WDW, Kenny the Pirate and Touring Plans. Now the only one I use and subscribe to is TP, and like others have said, it's not because of the crowd calendar (it's now useless). I use it for the ability to keep an eye out for me on an ADR I may not have been able to get, and their reported wait times at attractions instead of Disney's posted wait times. The only strategy I use is that I stay from parks that have extended hours, whether in the morning or the evening. Other than that, I pick what is most convenient for me and do it.
 

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