Crowd Calendar - which is most reliable?

[Klayfish]

I will be looking for a consensus among three crowd calendars -- or the closest thing to a consensus. I figure that`s a lot better than picking your park out of a hat!

No, you'll do far better picking out of a hat.

 

[Lothlórien]

I would not use any of them. They are nothing more than human prediction. And for this year starting in September and the next few years, nobody has any idea what to expect with the opening of SW:GE. Touring Plans and Kenny the Pirate both have a "I know everything and all the inside info" mentality, but often wrong on a lot. If you question KTP about his plans, he deletes your comments from his group instead of answering the question on how he arrived at the prediction he did. That should tell you everything you need to know. TP has never been great at their predictions. For years they complained about crowds, even when it was very manageable. MouseforLess & WDWPrepSchool use the old EasyWDW and TourGuideMike planning logic, which no longer applies. You can no longer plan crowds around EMH. I do not know what planning logic Undercover uses, but it has always been off. I can recall a year or two ago where they had 2 of the parks noted with "low crowds" on Christmas week. I was wondering if they had ever come here during Christmas week. As @Klayfish said, picking from a hat may be the best planner.

Edited to correct grammatical errors.

 

[gharter]

None of them are very accurate. They don't have any inside information on crowds. At best, it is an estimated guess.
And once SWGE opens, any predictions they had for crowds no longer work.

 

[_19disnA]

^^ I agree. Even Disney doesn't know how many locals with annual passes will decide to show up some weekend or which parks those staying at a non-Disney hotel will decide to visit. I would NOT pay for any of those estimates since they really provide you no insight and certainly aren't based on non-public information. Mostly they use historical data and maybe planned events to do their projections.

 

[Davey Jones II]

I used two crowd calendars to pick our park days last time (last Oct/Nov.), and there was only one time when I felt that the park was crazy crowded -- AK on a Monday, for some reason, and we hopped to Epcot after using our FPs.

 

[mcurran]

I’m surprised 3 pages in that no one pointed out that crowd calendars USED to predict crowds in a vacuum. Now they DRIVE people’s behaviors.

Also, weather drives a lot of behavior, especially for Florida residents. If it’s been a very rainy couple weeks you can expect when the weather breaks that it will be a crowded few days.

You need to book dining reservations 180 days out, fast passes at 60... I can’t wait for weather forecasts. Just roll the dice and go with a plan. Not planning is terrible - high or low crowd. Hope to get lucky with low crowds.