February direct sales but also debate about trusts

[Sandisw]

If they decide to put Poly2 into the trust, it won’t be the whole tower. They could put half into the trust and half into PVB and those points would be segregated from each other.

The Trust could book Poly2 for their rooms and points at 11 mos but not for the rooms that belong to PVB - and vice versa.

This is essentially how Wyndham does it. Access and Club points exist at each resort (not necessarily 50/50 spit) but those points are segregated from each other.

So. The possibility would then exist for Poly2 Tower rooms are avail at 10 mos for the Trust but not PVB or vice veras (because each are operating from a different pool of points).

If Poly2 is part of the trust, this is how it will be done. You’ll have a choice to buy into PVB or the Trust.

While they could, I don’t see them trying to sell two different products at the same time at the same resort.

I think we are going to see poly tower sold as a leasehold condo or a RTU plan but not both.

That why I don’t see them even adding undeclared units at RIV, VDH, and AUL any longer so that it’s a clean way to sell.

Hopefully we have more answers in the near future!

 

[maui22]

While they could, I don’t see them trying to sell two different products at the same time at the same resort.

I think we are going to see poly tower sold as a leasehold condo or a RTU plan but not both.

That why I don’t see them even adding undeclared units at RIV, VDH, and AUL any longer so that it’s a clean way to sell.

Hopefully we have more answers in the near future!

I agree they won't add RIV, VDH, and/or AUL. If they were going to do this, they would have already done it.

Many would find a trust with booking advantage to Epcot/DHS (RIV), DL/CA (VDH), and Hawaii (AUL), plus 1-2 MK resorts (CFW and possibly Poly tower) better than a trust with only MK (CFW today and possibly Poly tower). When I look at CFW ($12.16/pt) and Poly tower (PVB is $8.23), I can't fathom paying $3.93/pt more. Flip side, it makes a lot of sense to pay Poly tower dues (assuming near PVB dues) and stay at CFW when you can save that money.

This is essentially how Wyndham does it. Access and Club points exist at each resort (not necessarily 50/50 spit) but those points are segregated from each other.

When Wyndham introduced this, did they introduce it for 1-2 resorts a couple/few miles apart where the dues were significantly beneficial to one resort? Or did they introduce it to all the resorts they sold?

 

[sndral]

If they decide to put Poly2 into the trust, it won’t be the whole tower. They could put half into the trust and half into PVB and those points would be segregated from each other.

The Trust could book Poly2 for their rooms and points at 11 mos but not for the rooms that belong to PVB - and vice versa.

This is essentially how Wyndham does it. Access and Club points exist at each resort (not necessarily 50/50 spit) but those points are segregated from each other.

So. The possibility would then exist for Poly2 Tower rooms are avail at 10 mos for the Trust but not PVB or vice veras (because each are operating from a different pool of points).

If Poly2 is part of the trust, this is how it will be done. You’ll have a choice to buy into PVB or the Trust.

When the DVC Trust documents first surfaced I tried to research how other Timeshare companies operated Trusts & deeded units, but it seemed complicated to me. I assume in Wyndham Access points = Trust & Club = deeded unit? If Poly2 is a 50/50 ownership, & if DVC followed Wyndham’s model would it work like this: at 11 months deeded units can book up to 50% & PVB trust can book up to 50%. At, say 10 months other Trust points (cabin points) can book whatever is left of the Trust’s 50%, at 7 months other deeded unit DVC resorts can book whatever’s left of the deeded’s 50%?

 

[Sandisw]

When the DVC Trust documents first surfaced I tried to research how other Timeshare companies operated Trusts & deeded units, but it seemed complicated to me. I assume in Wyndham Access points = Trust & Club = deeded unit? If Poly2 is a 50/50 ownership, & if DVC followed Wyndham’s model would it work like this: at 11 months deeded units can book up to 50% & PVB trust can book up to 50%. At, say 10 months other Trust points (cabin points) can book whatever is left of the Trust’s 50%, at 7 months other deeded unit DVC resorts can book whatever’s left of the deeded’s 50%?

If DVD decided to declare the tower that way, keeping half of it for itself and adding to the trust, then the rules would be whatever they decide to add to the trust use plan for those units.

It could add them to the same plan as the cabins and then anyone buying that plan would get home access to whichever units from the tower and cabins are in that same plan.

They could also put them in under their own plan, and do something like above with early access

The could also just add to the trust under its own plan and keep things in term of booking the same way.

If they put units into PVB under the same vacation plan that current exist and sell leasehold then it’s the same rules for PVB.

I simply don’t see that. It makes no sense to split and complicate the sales of the tower.

I really think it will be sold all the same way…either under a trust type model and RTU like CFW or the way others have been sold.

 

[wilkydelts]

Wow this thread is dead. Just rename it already.

 

[CastAStone]

Wow this thread is dead. Just rename it already.

Done

 

[ziravan]

Wyndham created trust (Access) points long after most units were created. Access is the third iteration of booking system:

First there were fixed weeks and then DVC (didn’t create but rather pioneered a points system) and most timeshares followed suit.

So. Just like DVC’s fixed week systems that are also represented as points, I own various “CLUB” weeks expressed as point values. In all cases with my Wyndham, previous owners before I had bought resale had converted to points and so I have no fixed weeks, only Club Wyndham points.

But Wyndham and the other timeshares have a problem that DVC doesn’t: their resales are almost worthless. So. Owner dies and heirs just stop paying the dues.

DVC’s gonna get their yearly MFs cause the residual value is always much more. Not so the worthless resales. So Wyndham had a brainstorm - accept the resales back for free (forget the cheese let me outta the trap) and repackage them and sell them as access points. Now every point given back is converted from Club and resold in the Access Trust.

You can book at 13 months in any Access resort where points are avail for Access. And 10 months anywhere.

The exact mix of Club and Access at each resort depends on how many points Wyndham has gotten back and resold. But those are different pools of points.

If Access owns 12% of the resort, then they can book out their 12% at 13 months (and Club can book their 88% at 13 months) and its open season for everyone at 10 months.

If DVC made Poly2 50/50 trust/PVB then half the points would be expressed in PVB searches and half in Poly Trust searches and each would be separated at 11 months and fair game for all at 7 - but you’d still have to look at both resorts separately at 7 months (PVB and Poly Trust would be separate booking resorts where PVB would include both Poly1 and half of Poly2 points and Poly Trust would be just the 50% of Poly2 it owns).

And of course just like Boulder Ridge and Copper Creek, Poly Trust would have a prettier, more distinctive name.

 

[jbreen2010]

Disney likely doesn’t care about cabins sales. They’re a good “we don’t have anything else so why not sell these”. Also the DVC timeshare strategy of “hey, pay for us to renovate and keep a resort afloat” probably makes sense here. They are a cheap flip but on the other side I don’t think Disney has much trouble renting these for cash either. I just genuinely feel like they said let’s just throw these up for sale and see how they do.

 

[bianca]

We initially planned to make a purchase at CFW when they were announced. Our guide called us on the first day of sales and we informed her that we had changed our mind. Instead, we purchased 195 resale points at VWL and just passed ROFR yesterday. The fact that they made no improvements in the amenities at FW just felt incredibly lazy. I honestly hope the sales at CFW are abysmal in order to show DVC that we won’t just buy anything they throw our way.

I also agree wholeheartedly with an earlier post about making DVC too complicated with the trust issue. I can see many people walking away from direct sales in the future.

 

[CarolynFH]

Sometimes I wonder how much choice DVC management had in the decision to convert FWC to DVC and whether it was a directive from Parks & Resorts, to shift the costs of replacing and maintaining the cabins from P&R to DVC, as they did with BPK.

 

[maui22]

Sometimes I wonder how much choice DVC management had in the decision to convert FWC to DVC and whether it was a directive from Parks & Resorts, to shift the costs of replacing and maintaining the cabins from P&R to DVC, as they did with BPK.

I like your idea.

Iger knows they oversupplied DVC inventory and the pain both hotels and DVC went through 15 years ago.

2009:

• DVC opened AKV Kidani, SSR THV, BLT, and VGC. Over 10 million of inventory. VGC with incentives sold as low as $85 direct. (Compare that VGC price to today).
• Hotel had offers of 43% off and 40% off. DW and I used the 43% discount.
• Even those hotel discounts were not enough. Disney had to close at least 1 resort and I believe they closed parts of several resorts. Disney was even giving free upgrades of value to DVC, moderates to GF, etc.
• Around this time, the third party who financed all direct DVC loans refused to do this anymore. Disney had to start financing all the mortgages.

The faster they can move cash to DVC it reduces the risk. I believe FW area is also in a flood zone. Flood zones bring a lot of insurance risk.

 

[Brian Noble]

2009

The other problem was this was during the Great Recession. If the mortgage bond market hadn’t gone belly up and taken a large swath of commercial banking with it, none of the Disney stuff is a problem.

But the move from cash construction to timeshare development at WDW dates back to 9/11

 

[Paul Stupin]

While they could, I don’t see them trying to sell two different products at the same time at the same resort.

I think we are going to see poly tower sold as a leasehold condo or a RTU plan but not both.

That why I don’t see them even adding undeclared units at RIV, VDH, and AUL any longer so that it’s a clean way to sell.

Hopefully we have more answers in the near future!

Yeah, I don’t see them adding any undeclared units either. Aside from incentives, I don’t think DVC needs to add any additional booking priority at other resorts to sell Poly2. It’s the only new construction in years at what many consider the best location at WDW.

 

[maui22]

The other problem was this was during the Great Recession. If the mortgage bond market hadn’t gone belly up and taken a large swath of commercial banking with it, none of the Disney stuff is a problem.

But the move from cash construction to timeshare development at WDW dates back to 9/11

9/11 economic impact wasn’t helped by questionable decisions during the end of the dotcom bubble. (Disney bought go dot com….fear of missing out).

Edit: I forgot Disney partnered with Infoseek to form go dot com in summer of 1999. Dot com crash happened 2000.

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah, I don’t see them adding any undeclared units either. Aside from incentives, I don’t think DVC needs to add any additional booking priority at other resorts to sell Poly2. It’s the only new construction in years at what many consider the best location at WDW.

I also don't think there will be a problem with selling Poly tower. But, I also am confident that the trust is the new way forward, and so I can see them changing directions from what was said at the meeting, and making Poly tower a resort to be sold the same way as the cabins.

It certainly is possible that they won't and the next resort that comes along will be the second resort sold RTU, but we will see it at some point where CFW is not the only one.

And, given that the sales for CFW were not strong at all, I definitely think we could see them try to make it more valuable by somehow attaching it to Poly tower as a bonus. Like I said previous, buy one or the other, and get early access to each before all other owners get it...

 

[Paul Stupin]

I also don't think there will be a problem with selling Poly tower. But, I also am confident that the trust is the new way forward, and so I can see them changing directions from what was said at the meeting, and making Poly tower a resort to be sold the same way as the cabins.

It certainly is possible that they won't and the next resort that comes along will be the second resort sold RTU, but we will see it at some point where CFW is not the only one.

And, given that the sales for CFW were not strong at all, I definitely think we could see them try to make it more valuable by somehow attaching it to Poly tower as a bonus. Like I said previous, buy one or the other, and get early access to each before all other owners get it...

Not sure the ability to book early at the lowest end DVC property, which I hesitate to even call a resort, would mean anything to potential Poly2 buyers. In that case, the trust just becomes different legalese for the same kind of contract and system we currently have.

 

[Cfabar1]

Not sure the ability to book early at the lowest end DVC property, which I hesitate to even call a resort, would mean anything to potential Poly2 buyers. In that case, the trust just becomes different legalese for the same kind of contract and system we currently have.

I completely agree....

It is a downright bizarre proposition to me to have the first two properties be the worst and one of the best.

Now, I do think the trust is definitely the way forward... Disney seems to mimic all the other timeshare companies about 10 years later... However, my gut tells me that Poly stays part of the existing organization.

 

[The Jackal]

Sometimes I wonder how much choice DVC management had in the decision to convert FWC to DVC and whether it was a directive from Parks & Resorts, to shift the costs of replacing and maintaining the cabins from P&R to DVC, as they did with BPK.

Or CCV or the original PVB. Disney has some issues filling all deluxe resorts. Hence why CCV, PVB and BPK all went DVC. I wouldn’t be surprised if another building or two at VGF go DVC within 3-5 years. I have a feeling Disney is going to build a very fancy deluxe hotel extremely close to the MK in less than 10 years. I have no inside info. They are just doing too much road improvements and other things to Floridian way.

 

[Brian Noble]

9/11 economic impact wasn’t helped by questionable decisions during the end of the dotcom bubble.

Disney was far from the only ones buying tulip bulbs.

But we are talking specifically about WDW's resort portfolio. Or at least I was. And from where I sat, 9/11 put the fear of God--or more accurately a travel demand crash--into the WDW resort executives. I've written about this many times before. For example, four years ago here. Or four years before that here.

 

[Brian Noble]

I also am confident that the trust is the new way forward, and so I can see them changing directions from what was said at the meeting, and making Poly tower a resort to be sold the same way as the cabins.

I agree, but not in the way you think.

From the point of view of a day-to-day DVC owner, the cabins are being sold like any other DVC resort. You buy points homed at resort X, you get 11 months booking there, and 7 months everywhere else. The fact that the legal structure is different has nothing to do with anything.

I expect Poly to be the same thing, and it will not have 11 month cross-booking privileges with the cabins. It doesn't matter whether it is sold beneficial interests in a trust or as a fractional deeded leasehold, my bet is that the usage model is not changing.

I'll also give slightly longer odds on Something Like Reflections eventually being built and being part of the same association as the cabins.