Full return for Florida's cruise industry may not happen until 2022

[nmackovski]

Link to video:
https://www.wesh.com/article/cruise-industry-return-date/35474325

 

[sethschroeder]

Sorry if I don't feel sorry for Carnival as an example who ran a profit of $7b in 2019.

Yes I understand they are hurting but its not like they were not raking it in and beyond that purposely avoiding labor laws in countries like the US.

It completely sucks the employees are left out to dry.

 

[otten]

May not happen? A full return (ie to pre pandemic levels) isn’t even likely in 2022.

 

[Intr3pid]

Too optimistic. Here is my optimistic timeline:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-vaccine-discussion-thread.3817944/post-62627095

- North America/Europe to finish their first vaccinations by fall 2021
- The broader world to go through its first vaccination on a rolling basis by 2022
- North America/Europe to complete their tweaked vaccines by 2022
- The broader world to do so by 2023
- General travel restrictions largely relaxed by 2023
- Cruise travel restrictions largely relaxed after the 2023-24 flu season

Cruising in North America will likely begin in 2021 but return to capacity only after 2023.

A more pessimistic scenario would add a year or two - and cost us a cruise line (most likely NCL).

 

[cgolf]

Sorry if I don't feel sorry for Carnival as an example who ran a profit of $7b in 2019.

Yes I understand they are hurting but its not like they were not raking it in and beyond that purposely avoiding labor laws in countries like the US.

It completely sucks the employees are left out to dry.

The only thing I will caution you about that statement. You have to remember where these people are coming from and not apply US cost of living and wage scales to them. We were talking with one of our servers during lunch and in his home country he already owned a convenience store his wife and mom ran and was hoping to retire from the cruise life in his 40s after buying a 2nd convivence store and run those. I have worked hard in the US and don't have that luxury. For some, they are making way more money than at home on a cruise contract, is it a perfect job, nope, but I will tell you there is no such job

 

[dioxide45]

Cruising will take years to get to the same levels it was pre pandemic, mainly because they scrapped a bunch of ships. In order to get back to the same levels, they would need to add more capacity.

 

[dioxide45]

Sorry if I don't feel sorry for Carnival as an example who ran a profit of $7b in 2019.

Yes I understand they are hurting but its not like they were not raking it in and beyond that purposely avoiding labor laws in countries like the US.

It completely sucks the employees are left out to dry.

$9 billion, where is that coming from? According to their 2019 annual report, they made about $3 billion in net income in 2019. Also consider that they haven't taken any money in US bailouts, unlike many US based companies have and even the population as a whole.

As to labor laws, they hire mostly foreign workers and operate vessels flagged in foreign countries. Perhaps to avoid US labor laws. However if they were to operate US flagged ships, the cruises would cost 3X as much. The consumer needs to make the choice, cheap cruises or paying these people more money. It really is the consumers choice, they can opt not to go on the cruise if they feel strongly enough about it.

 

[tvguy]

The only thing I will caution you about that statement. You have to remember where these people are coming from and not apply US cost of living and wage scales to them. We were talking with one of our servers during lunch and in his home country he already owned a convenience store his wife and mom ran and was hoping to retire from the cruise life in his 40s after buying a 2nd convivence store and run those. I have worked hard in the US and don't have that luxury. For some, they are making way more money than at home on a cruise contract, is it a perfect job, nope, but I will tell you there is no such job

Had a similar conversation with our server on HAL. He was from Indonesia, been on ships for 9 years, started at age 20 was going to "retire" in a year at age 30. He said the salary he was paid was more than he could earn at home, and tips mean that he could retire at 30 and never work again. That is why there is such a long wait in Indonesia to get a job on a cruise ship, people PAY recruting companies to get hired.

 

[dioxide45]

Had a similar conversation with our server on HAL. He was from Indonesia, been on ships for 9 years, started at age 20 was going to "retire" in a year at age 30. He said the salary he was paid was more than he could earn at home, and tips mean that he could retire at 30 and never work again. That is why there is such a long wait in Indonesia to get a job on a cruise ship, people PAY recruting companies to get hired.

Exactly. People need to realize that the people working on these ships in most of the jobs are from countries with much lower standards of living than the US. These jobs, just like a job in the US is voluntary. No one makes them sign a contract. If they didn't like the work or think the work was worth the pay, word would get around and they would stop signing contracts or demand more pay in the contract.

 

[tvguy]

Reality check. Here in California we are two months into vaccines and just 10% of the population has gotten their shot. And supply of the vaccine is being used faster than it is being replaced, but hopefully in 20 months....... A YEAR AND HALF FROM NOW.......everyone will be vaccinated.
The staff on cruise ships come from nations with smaller scale, or NO vaccination program. I think vaccines will be required to cruise. The issue is, I think there will be vaccinated passengers ready to return to cruising long before the cruise lines have the vaccinated staff to operate the ships. So cruising in 2021 at all may not be possible.

 

[vacationer1954]

The major cruise lines shed a whole mess of ships during 2020. They know it'll be years and years before they get back up to 2019 levels.

 

[brentm77]

Reality check. Here in California we are two months into vaccines and just 10% of the population has gotten their shot. And supply of the vaccine is being used faster than it is being replaced, but hopefully in 20 months....... A YEAR AND HALF FROM NOW.......everyone will be vaccinated.
The staff on cruise ships come from nations with smaller scale, or NO vaccination program. I think vaccines will be required to cruise. The issue is, I think there will be vaccinated passengers ready to return to cruising long before the cruise lines have the vaccinated staff to operate the ships. So cruising in 2021 at all may not be possible.

That is too bad for Californians. Other states are doing much better on a per-capita basis.

Vaccines will be important, but they aren't necessarily required to see a major change in cases and deaths. The NYT's reported this morning that we may be starting to see some level of herd immunity (hence the crazy fast case drops across the globe, despite not having had enough time for vaccines to work). There certainly seems to be some seasonality in play too.

Absent a variant problem, we are going to see a very different spring and summer. Others disagree with me here, and make a good argument about variants, but I remain cautiously optimistic about variants not being a huge issue.

We will probably see some cases next winter, but it won't be like this winter - particularly if vaccination rates continue as they are or speed up. They should speed up with J&J coming on line. Utah expects to have enough vaccine for everyone by May. But again, I think we are seeing that we have probably seen the worst of the pandemic, even absent wide-spread vaccine distribution. Even if we can just vaccinate the highest-risk people, the virus quickly becomes much less of a threat to humanity.

All that said - I agree we won't see a return to full cruising for a long time. But I don't think anyone was really expecting that, were they? I think we all thought it would be limited capacity with restrictions for some time.

 

[tvguy]

That is too bad for Californians. Other states are doing much better on a per-capita basis.

Vaccines will be important, but they aren't necessarily required to see a major change in cases and deaths. The NYT's reported this morning that we may be starting to see some level of herd immunity (hence the crazy fast case drops across the globe, despite not having had enough time for vaccines to work). There certainly seems to be some seasonality in play too.

Absent a variant problem, we are going to see a very different spring and summer. Others disagree with me here, and make a good argument about variants, but I remain cautiously optimistic about variants not being a huge issue.

We will probably see some cases next winter, but it won't be like this winter - particularly if vaccination rates continue as they are or speed up. They should speed up with J&J coming on line. Utah expects to have enough vaccine for everyone by May. But again, I think we are seeing that we have probably seen the worst of the pandemic, even absent wide-spread vaccine distribution. Even if we can just vaccinate the highest-risk people, the virus quickly becomes much less of a threat to humanity.

All that said - I agree we won't see a return to full cruising for a long time. But I don't think anyone was really expecting that, were they? I think we all thought it would be limited capacity with restrictions for some time.

Well, like I have said before, I have been accused of being a pesimist here but unfortunately many of my most pesimistic predictions so far have ended up being wildly optomistic. And to unscore, U.S. residents wanted to cruise can't happen until cruise lines have international staff vaccinated and ready to cruise, and many parts of the world that these folks come from are far behind the U.S. in vaccinations.

 

[brentm77]

Well, like I have said before, I have been accused of being a pesimist here but unfortunately many of my most pesimistic predictions so far have ended up being wildly optomistic. And to unscore, U.S. residents wanted to cruise can't happen until cruise lines have international staff vaccinated and ready to cruise, and many parts of the world that these folks come from are far behind the U.S. in vaccinations.

And I have been too optimistic and been wrong often. So you have me there. Eventually I will be right.

I am starting to think lines will find a way to vaccinate crew directly. But yes, it is a major issue to overcome. They will need to find some solution in the near future, or they won't be around much longer.

 

[gwynne]

Well, like I have said before, I have been accused of being a pesimist here but unfortunately many of my most pesimistic predictions so far have ended up being wildly optomistic. And to unscore, U.S. residents wanted to cruise can't happen until cruise lines have international staff vaccinated and ready to cruise, and many parts of the world that these folks come from are far behind the U.S. in vaccinations.

I'm reasonably sure that in the coming months cruise lines will be purchasing vaccine for their employees.

 

[KashasMom]

A year ago I never in my wildest dreams would have believed we'd be where we are today! I guess my (rebooked) Feb 2022 cruise might not happen but it's boggling to think we might still not be cruising a year from now!

 

[otten]

A year ago I never in my wildest dreams would have believed we'd be where we are today! I guess my (rebooked) Feb 2022 cruise might not happen but it's boggling to think we might still not be cruising a year from now!

Yea. I remember being on the Wonder when the initial halt to cruising was announced. It was unimaginable then that over a year later not only would cruises still not be happening but that there was still no sign of when they would.

We booked an August 2021 European on board with our 40 percent discount and I did not imagine at the time that there was any way it wouldn’t happen or that we wouldn’t be on it. Yet here we are.

 

[tvguy]

I'm reasonably sure that in the coming months cruise lines will be purchasing vaccine for their employees.

My concern is STATES at this point can't get enough vaccine, how are cruise lines going to get priority or event find vaccine for International staff?

 

[gwynne]

My concern is STATES at this point can't get enough vaccine, how are cruise lines going to get priority or event find vaccine for International staff?

Vaccine production is rapidly ramping up. In a matter of (likely) a few months it will not be a problem.

 

[tvguy]

Vaccine production is rapidly ramping up. In a matter of (likely) a few months it will not be a problem.

Hope you are correct. I am in a lower level Tier 1 risk group and mutiple sources tell me not to expect my first vaccine until September.