I start with my budget, and the focus of our trip. I know that the Deluxe resorts are pretty darn sweet, but there is a lot to be said for some of the moderates. I have never stayed at a value, so I cannot comment on one of them.
I think that for a trip the length that you are planning I would start with a moderate that has a theme I like. Personally, POFQ is my favorite. I enjoy the size of the resort, and fine the atmosphere charming. The pool is small and while I like it, older kids may be bored. I liked CSR, and woudl encourage you to check out that resort thread to see where construction is and if it woudl impact you. This resort offers a lot for families, and is very nice. If you chose a moderate at the front end of the trip, maybe that is the time you could be park heavy. WE start our hitting the parks for longer stretches in the beginning of our stay, and spend more time at the resort as our trip evolves.
Swap out the resort for a deluxe later in the trip. Your savings will be there. I will add that resort preferences are always personal, and even within our family we are not all on the same page. My DH is pretty worried we are dragging our nieces to a hovel next December for our extended family trip. The Beach Club is a hovel?????? He hates it, and is convinced it is not in Disney! LOL!!! Now these two would be happy anywhere they stayed, and we are all looking forward to experiencing Disney through Jenna's eyes (She just married into our family and has never been)
We told them to choose any resort, and after a lot of research, discussion with my daughter and more pictures seen than I can even imagine they chose Beach Club. DH says it is not on the monorail line, therefore they are not going to like it! LOL!!! "Suck it up Buttercup, you gave them the choice!" LOL!
What ever you choose, I think you will be fine. Moderates have a lot to offers and IMO can compete in many aspects to a Deluxe.