That's just it. Someone will bite the bullet and be first. I definitely don't think it will be Disney. They will be watching what others do. I think local races will try to go off first because they have less of a risk with smaller fields and abilities to spread people out more if need be. Like you said if we wait for a vaccine to start races of any sort we could be years away yet.
I agree that local races will be first since they have a lot less risk.
The big question is are there going to be any operational changes to races and race organization as a result and I'm not sure what form they would take but I wouldn't be surpirsed.
Somebody though has to be first in terms or larger scale races and no i don't think it would be rundisney or rock and roll or any of those series. I think it is going to start with your larger running organizations that are used to putting on large scale races and have the experience and resources to really think though and plan things well.
So I would say the next race to watch would be PTRR on July 4th. As of now it is still on but still very possible it could be cancelled, or run with some kind of modified organization. That is the largest 10k in the world and run by Atlanta track Club a very well respected running group (they just hosted the olympic marathon trials right before things got crazy).
If my chance that one gets cancelled or postponed, then BAA at Boston Marathon will be the next one to watch.
As to who goes first for large scale races my opinion is it will be your groups like NYRR, ATC, BAA... those are the groups with the clout, experience, and resources to chart a path forward for races and others are going to follow their lead.