After over an hour on the phone with MS, I got my 5th ticket. It was an error on their part in the sense that I modified my reservation yesterday to switch out points to adjust my upcoming December trip and it was that modification that triggered me being outside the window.
Changing your guests do not show up anywhere when you do that, other than a confirmation email, which I didn’t save since it was accurate on the website.
So, lesson learned! Save all DVC confirmation emails unti after the trips ANd do not do any sort of modification to a resort reservation within 48 hours of an event registration, even if it just to swap out points with other ones!
ETA: And, while on the phone, just after we got it set, the CM said they got an email with event being at capacity.