Marathon Weekend 2021

[rteetz]

So, if we back out Dopey, approximately 5K-6K? I bet that is the ballpark. Do we think they can spread that many out?

I think it boils down to how badly Disney wants to host this event. They clearly are not going to make a ton of money from it with such a low number of registrations. I don’t think they need to see another big race go first because runDisney races are different and have their own unique advantages and disadvantages. And they are going to do what Disney wants to do not what other races do. The bottom line is they have had plenty of time to come up with a plan to make it work. And if they really want to make it work, they can. But I am not sure it is worth the effort for Disney.

The races themselves aren’t about making money. The races are essentially a loss leader. Disney makes their money with the hotel stays, park tickets, merch and food purchases.

 

[Dug720]

Per a podcast I listen to where one of the hosts is in touch with a rep from runDisney, there were 15,000 bibs across all 4 races and 2 challenges sold for Marathon Weekend. 30% of usual capacity.

She didn't have the breakdown of how many bibs per event/challenge. But there you go.

 

[happ]

Yes, especially the fact that Disney sold a GREATLY REDUCED number of bibs for Marathon Weekend. That in and of itself could mean that their corrals could go off as scheduled or with minimal modifications. The only parks that are really closed while the Half and Full are going on is Epcot at the start (if the full course starts through there like it used to) and MK. The times I've done the full, AK, Studios, and Epcot at the end were all open when I got there - and as Disney races I'm the late mid-pack/early back of pack. I could see them reducing pass availability for those 3 parks as another option. I believe that just by the fact that they reduced the number of bibs, runDisney has been planning ways to make it happen for a while now.

That said, I don't run/walk just for a medal. I do it for my physical and mental health. So cancellations don't make me say "Why bother?" I'm ultimately doing it for me, and so I will keep doing it for me.

And still go to Disney in January even if...

Absolutely. I don't run just for medals either, but I don't think I would follow a full marathon training plan without the race.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Per a podcast I listen to where one of the hosts is in touch with a rep from runDisney, there were 15,000 bibs across all 4 races and 2 challenges sold for Marathon Weekend. 30% of usual capacity.

She didn't have the breakdown of how many bibs per event/challenge. But there you go.

That sounds much more realistic than what I came up with. Something like:



The first table is the actual HM, M, Goofy and Dopey bibs + an estimate on the number of 5k/10k bibs based on finisher numbers. It's just an estimate on those though.

Then the second table is a % breakdown of the total number of each type of bibs as a ratio of the total.

The third table is using the % breakdown from 2020 on 15,000 total bibs for 2021 to come up with an estimate.

Lastly, the fourth table is combining the challenges into the numbers to calculate how many runners bibs per race.

If I were runDisney and maximized time by starting all races at 5am and started the balloon ladies as late as possible so that they would not infringe on the opening of a park, then I'd get the following:

5k - 9am EPCOT opening, 5am start, 50 min for Balloon ladies. Spread start over 3 hours. 4500 runners over 180 min is 25 runners per min.
10k - 9am EPCOT opening, 5am start, 100 min for Balloon ladies. Spread start over 140 min. 4500 runners over 140 min is 32 runners per min.
HM - 9am MK opening, 5am start, 96 min for Ballon ladies. Spread start over 140 min. 8500 runners over 140 min is 60 runners per min.
M - 9am MK opening, 5am start, 180 min for Ballon ladies. Spread start over 60 min. 6000 runners over 60 min is 100 runners per min.

*M Old Course - 9am MK opening, 5am start, 96 min for Ballon ladies. Spread start over 140 min. 6000 runners over 140 min is 42 runners per min.

Compared to the 400 runners per minute that is normal, these numbers seem much more feasible. A few tweaks here and there, and I feel like you've got a density number that's close to what local races here have been pulling off. I'm still hoping beyond all hope for you all.

 

[Dug720]

Absolutely. I don't run just for medals either, but I don't think I would follow a full marathon training plan without the race.

Well, to be fair, I would just be on my regular normal schedule unless I had a race.

My 10K got cancelled, so I just shifted my plans from the remainder of the 10K plan to more of a maintenance plan to keep me on track until my Half plan starts in October.

 

[1lilspark]

FWIW at least for 5&10K that only goes into epcot do we assume the current staggered openings will still be going on and epcot will open at 11? That could help stagger runners a big plus the status of characters/other photo ops on course

 

[PrincessV]

FWIW I ran some WDW 5Ks when they were capped at 5,000 - lots more space than with double the crowd, naturally, but enough for 10' between every runner? Maybe, if corrals were stretched out and a very staggered start. Easily doable in the EP parking lot and wide roadways, but harder in the tight spaces, of course.

 

[DopeyBadger]

FWIW at least for 5&10K that only goes into epcot do we assume the current staggered openings will still be going on and epcot will open at 11? That could help stagger runners a big plus the status of characters/other photo ops on course

No clue if EPCOT will open at 11am (like now) or 9am (like normal). The more time they allot for the starting window, then the more possible conducting the races will be. Granted if the 5k course is open for say 6 hours (5am to 11am), will the "A" corral runners take the full 6 hours? How much extra course density would occur in a runDisney race vs a local race given a runDisney race traditionally has other things to do?

I'd say looking at my numbers, the HM/M are probably the bigger issues if they still want everyone out of MK before opening. So those are the ones where something drastic might need to happen to the logistics of a normal weekend even with the reduced # of bibs.

 

[Krandor]

No clue if EPCOT will open at 11am (like now) or 9am (like normal). The more time they allot for the starting window, then the more possible conducting the races will be. Granted if the 5k course is open for say 6 hours (5am to 11am), will the "A" corral runners take the full 6 hours? How much extra course density would occur in a runDisney race vs a local race given a runDisney race traditionally has other things to do?

I'd say looking at my numbers, the HM/M are probably the bigger issues if they still want everyone out of MK before opening. So those are the ones where something drastic might need to happen to the logistics of a normal weekend even with the reduced # of bibs.

Yeah those half and full numbers still look a little high.

The other potential issue with all this is spectators. The few races I'm seen happen have no or few spectators due to not wanting large groups of people. For the full in paticular I don't think there is a way to do that if the course is anything like normal. I'm thinking of the HS and world showcase sections of the full that are open until noon or 1. Half might be ok if epcot still opens at 11 as far as in park spectators though you'd still have to watch areas like the boardwalk for the 10k. Clearly the normal fans on main street are pretty much guaranteed no go and llkely no stands at the finish line.

Then you have hydration - do you tell runners to bring their own or redesign the water station setup? how do you avoid the mass of people at table 1? maybe assigned water table by bib number?

So many things that have to be considered.

 

[Krandor]

So I have another question. We know ATC has been having financial issues through this and NYRR laid people off too. Has anybody heard about what state Trackshack is in? Have they done layoffs? Have they been able to put on any events at all since March? That could factor into things.

 

[rteetz]

So I have another question. We know ATC has been having financial issues through this and NYRR laid people off too. Has anybody heard about what state Trackshack is in? Have they done layoffs? Have they been able to put on any events at all since March? That could factor into things.

This was April. They don’t have a large staff really. I’m not sure how much of the rD staff is back from furlough either.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200419-2ii7x5yw3vayle5t3c3csgnwce-story.html

 

[Sleepless Knight]

Then you have hydration - do you tell runners to bring their own or redesign the water station setup? how do you avoid the mass of people at table 1? maybe assigned water table by bib number?

I wonder about also requiring masks if you choose to use on course hydration. Meaning you put the mask on when you get hydration and then you take it off after you are 6 feet clear of the hydration station. No this is not what we're used to, but if enduring some modifications will allow any race to hold the race live, while maximizing safety for both runners and volunteers, I'm more than willing to deal with it.

 

[camaker]

I wonder about also requiring masks if you choose to use on course hydration. Meaning you put the mask on when you get hydration and then you take it off after you are 6 feet clear of the hydration station. No this is not what we're used to, but if enduring some modifications will allow any race to hold the race live, while maximizing safety for both runners and volunteers, I'm more than willing to deal with it.

I’m not sure masks in-race would really be workable. I think we’d be more likely to see a new hydration paradigm where sealed bottles are put out on the tables for runners to grab as they go by. That would allow for a minimum number of volunteers to stand behind the tables and put trays of bottles out without direct runner-volunteer contact.

 

[Sleepless Knight]

I’m not sure masks in-race would really be workable. I think we’d be more likely to see a new hydration paradigm where sealed bottles are put out on the tables for runners to grab as they go by. That would allow for a minimum number of volunteers to stand behind the tables and put trays of bottles out without direct runner-volunteer contact.

I agree it would be tricky. I was only thinking about the mask being required if using the hydration stations. But your idea sounds much more feasible. It may require people to run with their own water bottle, but I have never agreed with those who say you do not need to run without a water bottle and can rely on runDisney's water stops to begin with. While their water stops are certainly sufficient, I ran one Disney race where the first stop was completely out when I went by and another where I needed to wet my throat and no water stop was on the horizon. Having my own hydration proved invaluable.

 

[camaker]

I agree it would be tricky. I was only thinking about the mask being required if using the hydration stations. But your idea sounds much more feasible. It may require people to run with their own water bottle, but I have never agreed with those who say you do not need to run without a water bottle and can rely on runDisney's water stops to begin with. While their water stops are certainly sufficient, I ran one Disney race where the first stop was completely out when I went by and another where I needed to wet my throat and no water stop was on the horizon. Having my own hydration proved invaluable.

The only thing I can be sure about is that I can run up to marathon distance while carrying my own fluids and not needing to stop or refill. That’s my plan for the foreseeable future.

 

[lovingeire]

SAFD:

Part of your World
Wishes
Trolley Show
Almost There
I've Got a Dream

I could probably go on, but...

 

[lovingeire]

I'm really struggling with motivation right now with race cancelations and life throwing curveballs. I'm still hoping the race happens, but I'm also hoping if it doesn't we get a decent amount of notice like we did with W&D. Trying to remain optimistic though.

 

[baxter24]

I'm really struggling with motivation right now with race cancelations and life throwing curveballs. I'm still hoping the race happens, but I'm also hoping if it doesn't we get a decent amount of notice like we did with W&D. Trying to remain optimistic though.

I feel the same way! I would hope we would know by October at the latest. People would be getting into some of the longer training runs at that point.

 

[Dug720]

Looking at Track Shack's requirements regarding masks and hydration for COVID-19:
*Masks are required in the starting and finishing areas. NOT while running.
*Participants are required to carry their own hydration device. Self-serve water available at refill stations.

Having been at races (not runDisney other than them running out of biofreeze on the Marathon Course) where stuff DOES go wrong - volunteers don't show up, people get the wrong timing and close their station early, etc. - it would never occur to me to NOT have my own hydration and nutrition with me. I don't get the mentality of not taking responsibility for yourself by not carrying your own.

I also don't get the "only do training/long runs for a race". Why not do it for yourself ANYWAY? The bling is a bonus.

 

[PrincessV]

I think there is zero percent chance Disney puts on a half or full and doesn't provide ANY water. That would just be asking for problems. I don't see any reason why they couldn't do what other races planned, though: set up tables with pre-filled cups or bottles of water and runners take them from the table. No human contact. Volunteers work behind the table filling cups and setting them on the table. Easy to maintain 6' of distance. I do not think water tables would be a reason to not hold a race.

I do think the need for medical volunteers would be a reason not to hold a big race, though. Only a few weeks ago, many FL hospitals were in desperate need of more medical staff, and SFL may still be suffering a shortage. No way will Disney pull medical professionals to work a race if they're desperately needed to fight a pandemic. To me, that is the biggest factor in whether or not Marathon Weekend happens. If we can keep the COVID spread way down here in FL, then maybe Disney can work out the social distancing logistics to make it happen. But if we're seeing a surge down here, forget it.