New Disney Ships: News, Rumors, Speculation.....and Names!

[Spork24]

On the assumption that the oil prices doc limb, DCL already has in place a fuel surcharge. Itll be tacked on as a fuel surcharge, but only if oil goes past a certain value. When it comes down again, itll come off. The last time they did it was in 2012.

This is a continuation from a different thread where the conversation got a little off topic, but still applies here.



The difference between speculation and an educated forecast is the level of research, but I agree this isn't the topic of the thread. You make some interesting points, so I will add my thoughts here:

1. While the ships are paid off, their amortization and the resulting impact on reported profits go on for a couple of decades.

2. I don't quite follow how comparing Alaska and the Caribbeans are apples to oranges when Disney has to make a decision on where to deploy its ships. (A) The marginal taxes for the prices I quoted previously are ~$400 per room per sailing. For 9 sailings, that's $3,200 extra per room. So, instead of saying that Disney is charging ~60% more in Alaska, let's say 55%. The point remains. (B) The industry average is higher for a reason: you need to accommodate 12 months of cruising passengers into just 4 months of the season. (C) Operating costs can go in either direction. Cruising industry has more pricing power against the Alaskan ports given their contributions to the local town economies. Then, Disney handles and charges quite a bit of the premium Alaskan port excursions, while it funds your "excursions" in Castaway Cay.

3. Disney cruise line isn't a separate division. It's a product offered by 'Disney Signature Experiences', which comes under the strategic decision-making of Disney Parks and Experiences. Bob Chapek, who heads up the parks/experiences, pulls the trigger on strategic growth. And here is what their leadership is saying today:
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/en...als-are-considering-opening-another-park.html

4. No need to brand 2 billion of population as smokers and gamblers. They are, in fact, more involved in multi-generational family travel than most of us in North America. Even for North American/European cruisers, all luxury cruise lines spend a considerable amount of time in Asia Pacific every year.

5. I agree that Disney won't just jump into something like a 10-year port contract with Shanghai or Tokyo, but it could in the way it "tested the waters" in Europe. The reason it hasn't yet been to Asia Pacific is straightforward: no available ship.

6. Long 10-/11-day itineraries are going to be one-offs for Disney. (Those Disney prices are astronomical - compared to Princess or RCI.) Only a small segment of the cruising population wants to splurge that much in the Caribbeans. And if Disney really saw much upside in exotic itineraries, they could try it already - as they currently have four ships operating in the Caribbeans outside of spring/summer.

When I said apples to oranges, theres a couple of reasons why. First, without knowing what the opening day pricing is for both ships, we really don't know what the actual comparison is. Reason is, that as cabins go on sale, and are booked, the price will increase. I don't know what the actual system they use is, but, I do know that a given cabin category goes up in price the closer a cruise gets to sailing, and the faster it books. Its a tiered system and has been mentioned herre before. 2nd, Disney is becoming more and more industry compliant for lack of a better term. If the industry average for Alaska is say 2500 pp, Disney will use 2500 pp as its base. If the industry average is say 1500pp for a 7 day carib, Disney will use 1500pp. The difference between the industry and DCL is DCL hardly ever discounts cruises regularly anymore. The industry as a whole does. 3rd, without knowing the full numbers, we have 2 different sized ships were talking about. 1 with a capacity of roughly 2500 and the other with 4000. So its entirely possible that even though a given amount of sailings are sold out on the Wonder, the same amount of cruisers are on the Fantasy. It just takes her longer to reach capacity due to her size. Even gs has told me that she sails roughly 90 capacity on average thu the year. It would be closer to use Princess as an example, with a similar sized ship, and its base price prior to any discounts as comparisons.

Im not branding an entire population. What I am saying is that its 2 different cultures. They may travel as an multi generation family unit, but the ships over there, are modified for that specific market. Norwegian Bliss is NCLs newest that is being specifically built for the Asian market. I think its 2 different expectation between what you and I would expect on a cruise, and what the Chinese culture expects.

I read the article from the stock reports etc. I took it as what the land parks are looking at. Its rare for the cruise line to get mentioned in a stock update. Unless its a honorable mention that they are building new ships. Like Ive said before. Asia may be on DCLs radar, but it will be several years at least before DCL goes over.

DCL is doing more and more over 7 day trips. Alaska, Europe, and there have been a few in the Caribbean. I agree that DCL should be doing test runs to new ports in the Carib. Why there not Im not sure. I don't know if its lack of vision or something else. And it goes back to what I mentioned before. If the industry doesn't have a problem making it to say Bonaire on a regular basis from Miami, why cant DCL? There is none. The whole thing of needing PR is a cop out. If it were me, and the Magic is in Miami, Id send her south for 7 days, and mix in an 8 or 10 every so often. Someplace other then the normal east wests that she and the Fantasy were doing. The Wonder is or was in Galveston. Send her to the Canal and back. Theres other islands near there like Granada. PC is getting busier every year. They want the number 1 cruise spot bad.( I was shocked when I saw the 25 year plan drawing. Lets just say if they do everything that's on their drawing, you wont recognize the port. Itll almost be a necessity to stay at the port the night before. ) There in 2nd behind Miami. I would not be surprised if they don't throw Disney a bone, to help them get there since the contract is up about the same time the new ships are due. ​

The bliss was built for Alaska....

 

[truck1]

The bliss was built for Alaska....

My mistake and fixed. It was the Norwegian Joy being purpose built for Asia.

 

[Intr3pid]

Itll be tacked on as a fuel surcharge, but only if oil goes past a certain value. When it comes down again, itll come off. The last time they did it was in 2012.

That's true for the itineraries already on sale. Most cruise lines manage longer term oil price changes through forward contracts - which make those fuel costs sticky and eventually show up in your fares. Frank Del Rio, NCL's CEO, commented last year that his fuel costs comprised 6% of his revenues. I would estimate the number being closer to ~5% for DCL.

When I said apples to oranges, theres a couple of reasons why. First, without knowing what the opening day pricing is for both ships, we really don't know what the actual comparison is. Reason is, that as cabins go on sale, and are booked, the price will increase. I don't know what the actual system they use is, but, I do know that a given cabin category goes up in price the closer a cruise gets to sailing, and the faster it books. Its a tiered system and has been mentioned herre before. 2nd, Disney is becoming more and more industry compliant for lack of a better term. If the industry average for Alaska is say 2500 pp, Disney will use 2500 pp as its base. If the industry average is say 1500pp for a 7 day carib, Disney will use 1500pp. The difference between the industry and DCL is DCL hardly ever discounts cruises regularly anymore. The industry as a whole does. 3rd, without knowing the full numbers, we have 2 different sized ships were talking about. 1 with a capacity of roughly 2500 and the other with 4000. So its entirely possible that even though a given amount of sailings are sold out on the Wonder, the same amount of cruisers are on the Fantasy. It just takes her longer to reach capacity due to her size. Even gs has told me that she sails roughly 90 capacity on average thu the year. It would be closer to use Princess as an example, with a similar sized ship, and its base price prior to any discounts as comparisons.

Im not branding an entire population. What I am saying is that its 2 different cultures. They may travel as an multi generation family unit, but the ships over there, are modified for that specific market. Norwegian Joy is NCLs newest that is being specifically built for the Asian market. I think its 2 different expectation between what you and I would expect on a cruise, and what the Chinese culture expects.

I read the article from the stock reports etc. I took it as what the land parks are looking at. Its rare for the cruise line to get mentioned in a stock update. Unless its a honorable mention that they are building new ships. Like Ive said before. Asia may be on DCLs radar, but it will be several years at least before DCL goes over.

DCL is doing more and more over 7 day trips. Alaska, Europe, and there have been a few in the Caribbean. I agree that DCL should be doing test runs to new ports in the Carib. Why there not Im not sure. I don't know if its lack of vision or something else. And it goes back to what I mentioned before. If the industry doesn't have a problem making it to say Bonaire on a regular basis from Miami, why cant DCL? There is none. The whole thing of needing PR is a cop out. If it were me, and the Magic is in Miami, Id send her south for 7 days, and mix in an 8 or 10 every so often. Someplace other then the normal east wests that she and the Fantasy were doing. The Wonder is or was in Galveston. Send her to the Canal and back. Theres other islands near there like Granada. PC is getting busier every year. They want the number 1 cruise spot bad.( I was shocked when I saw the 25 year plan drawing. Lets just say if they do everything that's on their drawing, you wont recognize the port. Itll almost be a necessity to stay at the port the night before. ) There in 2nd behind Miami. I would not be surprised if they don't throw Disney a bone, to help them get there since the contract is up about the same time the new ships are due. ​

For the rest:

1. The prices I quoted were July and August 2019 prices. There has been pretty much no change from the opening day prices for those itineraries and dates. Logically, it wouldn't anyways this early in the game, but you can see for yourself:
https://touringplans.com/disney-cruise-line/tools/fare-tracker?utf8=✓&cruise=1882&roomcat=05A&og=5

2. I did address the difference in capacity between Fantasy and Wonder. For a guest booking the fare, however, how many other rooms doesn't make the fare appear cheaper or more expensive. For DCL, there is a huge difference in build cost as well, which they need to recover. In any event, you can compare Wonder's peak Alaskan 7-night 2A2C Verandah fare at ~$16,000 with Wonder's own peak Bahamian December fare of ~$12,000. Not really a meaningful comparison as we are discussing where to place the ships in the summer - but you can see the Alaska premium even in the extremes.

3. There is a reason why the cruise industry discounts prices closer to the sailing dates. You see, the opportunity cost for an empty seat on a flight is maybe the lost fare for 5 hours. For an empty hotel room, it is maybe a night's rate. BUT - for a cruise sailing, it is the fare for an average of 7 nights. That's huge! RCL has 25 ships (compared to Disney's 4), so the opportunity cost multiplied by 25 mostly larger ships becomes enormous. You cannot let a ship sail even 10% empty. All of Carnival, RCL, and NCL sail at between 105%-110% of the base occupancy (called ALBD), so their discounts work a treat.

4. That being said, DCL does discount its cruises indirectly (though not as much) in a way most folks don't realize. First, you have those guaranteed rates. You also have 25% discount for special interest groups, and some of these discounts (such as for Canadian residents) are promptly activated for slow-selling cruises. DCL also converts a ship to SWDAS or MDAS, which doesn't lower the headline price but lowers DCL's profit margin for that sailing. They have also started to throw in a free day at WDW for some sailings out of NYC - again, indirect discounts. It will be interesting to see how they deal with this pricing approach once the new ships arrive.

5. There are very, very few mainstream ships purpose built for Asia. All of Cunard's ships spend a considerable amount of time every year among Europe, Asia, and North America. Princess has Coral Princess in Asia which returns to Alaska and Pacific Coast. Sapphire Princess splits time between Europe and Asia. Same with RCL's ships and most of NCL's ships. And like I said, all luxury cruise lines take their same ships to Asia for almost the entire other half of the year.

6. Yes, there are new ports to try in the Caribbeans. There are new ports to try everywhere. DCL does carry overcapacity for almost 6 months in the Caribbeans, so if anything, they should try those itineraries in the shoulder and winter seasons. As I said, a part of the marketing strategy is to get the new cruising families on board in the Caribbeans, and then slowly milk them over in Alaska and Europe. Could partly explain the "low-risk" approach in the Caribbeans.

 

[RedSox68]

I'm enjoying this topic.

What could the new cruise ships mean for Disney Cruise pricing?

Disney Parks and Resorts seems to be pushing the envelope across the board regarding what they can get away with charging. Currently the supply/demand balance is not in the consumers favor. I'd like to think these new ships might allow prices to stabilize somewhat and maybe a few more deals for flexible travelers.

Yeah, we were all hoping for that when the Fantasy and Dream arrived -- and it only got worse with pricing! If they can sell it, and people will pay it, there is no reason for them to lower or level off the pricing in general

 

[Markonefive]

While there are new ships coming off the docks and into production from many cruise lines in coming years, at some point older vessels are past the point where they can be refurbished and would be sold off or scrapped, for lack of having the "wow factor" or amenities that are becoming more common on the newer mega cruise lines. Even smaller ships will need to meet higher expectations. Plus taking cruises continues to grow in popularity and there is enough multi generational demand to keep passengers coming for years to come. Disney wisely continues not to overproduce and have too many ships, allowing them a high profit margin on a lower number of ships or occupancy. They will adjust itineraries as needed which is easier to do with a small fleet, not over saturating a small number of destinations, also helping to build their repeat business. Plus the Asian market and demand is growing incredibly so I don't think any of the cruise lines have much to worry about for present and future demand. I anticipate all cruise lines, like the airline industry, have analysts and computer programs looking at all sorts of factors to figure out the balance between price, demand, vacancy, projected growth, costs etc to ensure that, if they do their jobs well, ensures viability of their company.

 

[RedSox68]

While there are new ships coming off the docks and into production from many cruise lines in coming years, at some point older vessels are past the point where they can be refurbished and would be sold off or scrapped, for lack of having the "wow factor" or amenities that are becoming more common on the newer mega cruise lines. Even smaller ships will need to meet higher expectations. Plus taking cruises continues to grow in popularity and there is enough multi generational demand to keep passengers coming for years to come. Disney wisely continues not to overproduce and have too many ships, allowing them a high profit margin on a lower number of ships or occupancy. They will adjust itineraries as needed which is easier to do with a small fleet, not over saturating a small number of destinations, also helping to build their repeat business. Plus the Asian market and demand is growing incredibly so I don't think any of the cruise lines have much to worry about for present and future demand. I anticipate all cruise lines, like the airline industry, have analysts and computer programs looking at all sorts of factors to figure out the balance between price, demand, vacancy, projected growth, costs etc to ensure that, if they do their jobs well, ensures viability of their company.

ABD announced they are going to Japan next year -- that could provide a link for one of the ships to go there, too.

I am not one of those who likes the bigger and fatter ships with so much to do. I would prefer smaller ones if possible. Next year we are cruising Oceania to Cuba and the ship holds about 684 passengers. I can't wait for that small crowd. We are going on our biggest ship yet in September -- NCL Escape and I think it has 4,200 passengers. Not sure how we will like it. We have zero interest in RCCL anymore -- after they played around with our original Cuba reservations and messed up the itinerary and then changed ships on us, we'll let them keep their big ships for others

 

[dtk07]

While there are new ships coming off the docks and into production from many cruise lines in coming years, at some point older vessels are past the point where they can be refurbished and would be sold off or scrapped, for lack of having the "wow factor" or amenities that are becoming more common on the newer mega cruise lines. Even smaller ships will need to meet higher expectations. Plus taking cruises continues to grow in popularity and there is enough multi generational demand to keep passengers coming for years to come. Disney wisely continues not to overproduce and have too many ships, allowing them a high profit margin on a lower number of ships or occupancy. They will adjust itineraries as needed which is easier to do with a small fleet, not over saturating a small number of destinations, also helping to build their repeat business. Plus the Asian market and demand is growing incredibly so I don't think any of the cruise lines have much to worry about for present and future demand. I anticipate all cruise lines, like the airline industry, have analysts and computer programs looking at all sorts of factors to figure out the balance between price, demand, vacancy, projected growth, costs etc to ensure that, if they do their jobs well, ensures viability of their company.

Is there any reason the Wonder and Magic wouldn't be able to meet the needs of dcl anytime in the 10-15 years? Provided the bones are in good shape there is nothing that a dry dock couldn't fix as far as changing expectations for a cruise ship. I don't see the point of replacing the Magic Class ships with other ships of similar sizes unless it was the integrity of the boat itself that was in question.

 

[Spork24]

Is there any reason the Wonder and Magic wouldn't be able to meet the needs of dcl anytime in the 10-15 years? Provided the bones are in good shape there is nothing that a dry dock couldn't fix as far as changing expectations for a cruise ship. I don't see the point of replacing the Magic Class ships with other ships of similar sizes unless it was the integrity of the boat itself that was in question.

There are no such reasons apparent to the public at this time. But there is no guarantee that Disney want so operate ships of that size in the future. Would a bigger ship that fits a lot the same ports and passages deliver higher margins?

I don’t think the magic class will be sold before 2028-2030 but who knows.

 

[RedSox68]

There are no such reasons apparent to the public at this time. But there is no guarantee that Disney want so operate ships of that size in the future. Would a bigger ship that fits a lot the same ports and passages deliver higher margins?

I don’t think the magic class will be sold before 2028-2030 but who knows.

I can't imagine they would be sold at all. I can see Disney parking them somewhere as hotels/restaurants. They would be a great attraction in an area that doesn't have WDW or Disneyland. They are such special ships -- especially the Magic -- to so many people. The Wonder was our first cruise ever and the Magic became our home for many cruises. I would hate to see either one of them go out of the hands of Disney.

 

[Spork24]

I can't imagine they would be sold at all. I can see Disney parking them somewhere as hotels/restaurants. They would be a great attraction in an area that doesn't have WDW or Disneyland. They are such special ships -- especially the Magic -- to so many people. The Wonder was our first cruise ever and the Magic became our home for many cruises. I would hate to see either one of them go out of the hands of Disney.

Are there any super successful ship/hotels (stationary ships serving as hotels)? All the ones I’ve ever heard of are always on hard times.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Are there any super successful ship/hotels (stationary ships serving as hotels)? All the ones I’ve ever heard of are always on hard times.

Don't know how "super successful" it is but the Queen Mary (Long Beach) has been there for a really long time and you can still stay there/visit her to tour it.

 

[RedSox68]

Don't know how "super successful" it is but the Queen Mary (Long Beach) has been there for a really long time and you can still stay there/visit her to tour it.

Yes, we took a tour in 2005 and at that time it was not in good shape, but did have a lot of the rooms booked. The pool area was closed and it smelled musty and needed some refurbishments. The rooms were very interesting, but small. The woodwork was beautiful, but it all needed some TLC. I think a Disney named floating hotel/restaurant would fair better. I know I'd stay onboard. I think a permanent docking in NYC would be successful because they could connect it to their Broadway shows.

Some interesting reviews of the Queen Mary: https://www.tripadvisor.com/Hotel_Review-g32648-d77621-Reviews-The_Queen_Mary-Long_Beach_California.html. The pics are quite interesting -- what is it with the lumpy bed!

 

[truck1]

Is there any reason the Wonder and Magic wouldn't be able to meet the needs of dcl anytime in the 10-15 years? Provided the bones are in good shape there is nothing that a dry dock couldn't fix as far as changing expectations for a cruise ship. I don't see the point of replacing the Magic Class ships with other ships of similar sizes unless it was the integrity of the boat itself that was in question.

Not really. The only real thing besides a incident with the ship, like fire water intrusion into the wrong compartment there's no reason those ships won't run for another 15 or 20 years. The only thing that may kill the ships sooner would be a major solas change in which it would be cheaper to retire them as opposed to bringing them up to the new standard. That's what killed the QE2 sooner then her expected life expectancy.

 

[Will Dumont]

My speculation:

Names: Believe, Wish, Imagination

All new ships will homeport in Port Canaveral (one Bahamas, one Eastern caribbean, one Western caribbean)

Dream will homeport in New York (bermuda, bahamas)

Fantasy will homeport in West Coast (Alaska, Baja, Hawaii?)

Magic will alternate between Northern Europe (Copenhagen, Dover) and Miami (Bahamas, Caribbean)

Wonder will alternate between Mediterranean (Barcelona, Civitiavecchia) and Galveston/San Juan (Caribbean)

 

[Intr3pid]

My speculation:

Names: Believe, Wish, Imagination

All new ships will homeport in Port Canaveral (one Bahamas, one Eastern caribbean, one Western caribbean)

Dream will homeport in New York (bermuda, bahamas)

Fantasy will homeport in West Coast (Alaska, Baja, Hawaii?)

Magic will alternate between Northern Europe (Copenhagen, Dover) and Miami (Bahamas, Caribbean)

Wonder will alternate between Mediterranean (Barcelona, Civitiavecchia) and Galveston/San Juan (Caribbean)

I doubt Fantasy will be able to get into some of the Alaskan ports or the inlets - and certainly not through Panama Canal.

All of the following is purely my own opinion.

I expect two ships to be in Alaska in the summer. At least one of them will be Magic or Wonder - and maybe both. One will operate in Alaska from Vancouver and the other from Seattle. Magic or Wonder will trek through Panama Canal to spend the rest of the season in the Caribbeans. The other will likely stay back in San Diego.

Two ships will be in Europe for the summer (one doing Northern Europe and the other the Med itineraries). At least one will be back in the Caribbeans for the winter. The other might stay back for Med and/or the Canaries at least in the fall / spring (but possibly the winter as well).

One ship will eventually make its way to Asia. But you will still have 4-5 ships in the Caribbeans in the fall / winter / spring - operating from a mix of PC, Miami, NYC, and Texas (depending on the season - can't imagine an NYC sailing in the winter).

Since Europe has a better developed LNG infrastructure, at least one of the new ships should make its way over.

 

[Will Dumont]

I doubt Fantasy will be able to get into some of the Alaskan ports or the inlets - and certainly not through Panama Canal.

All of the following is purely my own opinion.

I expect two ships to be in Alaska in the summer. At least one of them will be Magic or Wonder - and maybe both. One will operate in Alaska from Vancouver and the other from Seattle. Magic or Wonder will trek through Panama Canal to spend the rest of the season in the Caribbeans. The other will likely stay back in San Diego.

Two ships will be in Europe for the summer (one doing Northern Europe and the other the Med itineraries). At least one will be back in the Caribbeans for the winter. The other might stay back for Med and/or the Canaries at least in the fall / spring (but possibly the winter as well).

One ship will eventually make its way to Asia. But you will still have 4-5 ships in the Caribbeans in the fall / winter / spring - operating from a mix of PC, Miami, NYC, and Texas (depending on the season - can't imagine an NYC sailing in the winter).

Since Europe has a better developed LNG infrastructure, at least one of the new ships should make its way over.

I don’t see why the Fantasy would have issues. Norwegian Bliss, Ovation of the Seas and many Celebrity and Princess ships of similar size sail to Alaska with no problems. They visit Tracy Arm, Glacier Bay, Skagway, Ketchikan, etc.

 

[Will Dumont]

I doubt Fantasy will be able to get into some of the Alaskan ports or the inlets - and certainly not through Panama Canal.

All of the following is purely my own opinion.

I expect two ships to be in Alaska in the summer. At least one of them will be Magic or Wonder - and maybe both. One will operate in Alaska from Vancouver and the other from Seattle. Magic or Wonder will trek through Panama Canal to spend the rest of the season in the Caribbeans. The other will likely stay back in San Diego.

Two ships will be in Europe for the summer (one doing Northern Europe and the other the Med itineraries). At least one will be back in the Caribbeans for the winter. The other might stay back for Med and/or the Canaries at least in the fall / spring (but possibly the winter as well).

One ship will eventually make its way to Asia. But you will still have 4-5 ships in the Caribbeans in the fall / winter / spring - operating from a mix of PC, Miami, NYC, and Texas (depending on the season - can't imagine an NYC sailing in the winter).

Since Europe has a better developed LNG infrastructure, at least one of the new ships should make its way over.

Also the Panama Canal was just expanded, can hold ships larger than the Fantasy. I don’t think that Disney will send a ship you asia, cruise lines have had to move ships back from Asia because the market hasn’t met the prediction (example Ovation of the Seas, Norwegian Encore).

 

[OKW Lover]

the Panama Canal was just expanded, can hold ships larger than the Fantasy.

I believe the problem is the "air draft" of the Fantasy and the Bridge of the Americas, not the size of the locks. The ship is too tall.

 

[truck1]

I believe the problem is the "air draft" of the Fantasy and the Bridge of the Americas, not the size of the locks. The ship is too tall.

Yes, air draft is the usuall limiting factor in the canal. Air draft is rarely published for any ship. So I did some looking and some math. The Fantasy is 217 feet tall. That's from her keel to the top of her radar mast. The Bridge of America's maximum allowable air draft at any time, any tide is 190. If we take the Dream class draft of 27.8 feet, her air draft is 189.2. She can ballast if needed to change that number but shes still at the max. The Bridge of America's is actually 201 but the canal gives it a 11 foot buffer for the oops calculation.

 

[truck1]

I don’t see why the Fantasy would have issues. Norwegian Bliss, Ovation of the Seas and many Celebrity and Princess ships of similar size sail to Alaska with no problems. They visit Tracy Arm, Glacier Bay, Skagway, Ketchikan, etc.

She wouldnt. The only true issue if you can call it that is since the Magic class is smaller and lighter, they can get into places the Dream class cant,, and can get closer to objects of interest.