Over 3,500 people quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise

[Adventurelawyer]

Once caveat about that "80% are mild"- it is not what we usually think "mild" is. The case definition in that study which is being quoted all the time is that "mild" is upper respiratory infection or mild pneumonia. That is a pretty wide case definition and could definitely include hospitalized patients needing oxygen and IV fluids. Since it came out of China, I'm leaning toward those cases being more on the pneumonia end of things, as they are usually diagnosing and treating only the more serious cases.

However, another study came out today with data from the Diamond Princess and it showed that about a third of people with COVID19 were asymptomatic. That's encouraging on the one hand in terms of mild disease being a big part of this epidemic, but very discouraging from a containment standpoint.

Putting this all together, it seems that at least one-third of all cases might need hospitalization, and that is a huge burden on any health system.

Before we say 1/3 need hospitalization, its important to review comorbidity factors in those who have been hospitalized. That ship probably isn’t a good cross section for a sample. We need to break it down and we just aren’t in a place, yet, with controls in place, where we can say x number across the board. I think right now, based on what we know of US patients needing any intervention at all, its far lower than 1/3 (obviously I don’t have data on how healthy any of them were to begin with).

 

[smmco]

No you did not. You said we test for influenza in the ED. Do I need to start screen caping your posts? Furthermore, you failed to read my post beyond the first sentence, people need not and DO NOT, go to the ER for ILI, and most with the flu don’t even report to any doctor, let alone an ER which costs thousands because they are not there for an emergency. Thus causing the numbers on infection to be inaccurate; no one can ever know with certainty. However, you cling to thise numbers as a gold standard for viral outbreak and response, but refuse to accept the educated calculations of your scientific betters.

Moreover, I see you tossing out how you are in the medical field and that you work in infectious disease, I suspect that if you were very high up in the ED or infectious disease food chain, you would understand how epidemics work, how actual scientists make educated guesses based on numbers and how risk is calculated. You would also know that different regions have different standards of care, which means not everyone with ILI is swabbed. My suspicion is you have overstated you importance in order to be an important influencer in this conversation, while vacillating between “its not that bad, because it has the same numbers as influenza,” and the “sky is falling because we don’t know the numbers,”stoking fear against reason and logic. So which is it for you, is it not as bad as flu because the known numbers are on par with that family of viruses or is the sky falling because the known numbers are on par with influenza, in your learned medical opinion?

At least I’m not condescending. and I don’t insult people. I never claimed to work in infectious disease. I think you may have me confused with someone else. Yes I’m just a low on the food chain RN that works my butt off taking care of people.. I’m only reporting what I see and what we do where I work. Thanks for putting me in my place.

 

[QueenElinor]

Before we say 1/3 need hospitalization, its important to review comorbidity factors in those who have been hospitalized. That ship probably isn’t a good cross section for a sample. We need to break it down and we just aren’t in a place, yet, with controls in place, where we can say x number across the board. I think right now, based on what we know of US patients needing any intervention at all, its far lower than 1/3 (obviously I don’t have data on how healthy any of them were to begin with).

I'm not basing that estimate on DP passengers, but on the 20% of severe/critical figure from that large study of 70,000 patients. So we know that of clinically diagnosed patients, around 20% are going to need hospitalization for sure. But, some of those mild cases will, too- maybe even half. Offset that with the one-third that are asymptomatic and it comes up to about one-third (okay, I might be talked down to 25% ) needing hospitalization, depending on how many of the mild cases actually need intervention.

That last number (mild cases) is the problem, still. In the US, we're a little quicker off the mark to hospitalize viral pneumonia patients as they're more unpredictable than bacterial cases, and not as straightforward to treat.

 

[DLgal]

That last number (mild cases) is the problem, still. In the US, we're a little quicker off the mark to hospitalize viral pneumonia patients as they're more unpredictable than bacterial cases, and not as straightforward to treat.

My 7 year old niece was hospitalized last month for 8 days because of viral pneumonia that did not respond to antibiotics (they were trying that first because she had a very high fever and they suspected it was bacterial, but the IV antibiotics didn't work even after 3 days). She went into respiratory distress numerous times, and was almost intubated. She tested negative for flu, several times. Also tested negative for RSV. They "had no idea" what virus she actually had, but it turned bad VERY quickly. She was hospitalized 3 days after her initial symptoms started. She does have asthma and is prone to developing pneumonia, and has had it several times, but it has never been this bad.

It was a terrifying week for our family. She had gotten sick after my BIL had been sick over New Year's with an upper respiratory virus (tested negative for flu). No one else in the household got sick, but while she was in the hospital, they made her wear a mask the whole time and she could not have any visitors other than her parents. She was given a private room as well.

After experiencing this in my family, this virus and it's possibilities terrifies me.

 

[QueenElinor]

My 7 year old niece was hospitalized last month for 8 days because of viral pneumonia that did not respond to antibiotics (they were trying that first because she had a very high fever and they suspected it was bacterial, but the IV antibiotics didn't work even after 3 days). She went into respiratory distress numerous times, and was almost intubated. She tested negative for flu, several times. Also tested negative for RSV. They "had no idea" what virus she actually had, but it turned bad VERY quickly. She was hospitalized 3 days after her initial symptoms started. She does have asthma and is prone to developing pneumonia, and has had it several times, but it has never been this bad.

It was a terrifying week for our family. She had gotten sick after my BIL had been sick over New Year's with an upper respiratory virus (tested negative for flu). No one else in the household got sick, but while she was in the hospital, they made her wear a mask the whole time and she could not have any visitors other than her parents. She was given a private room as well.

After experiencing this in my family, this virus and it's possibilities terrifies me.

Viral pneumonias are definitely a different beast from "regular" pneumonias. I'm sorry that your family went through this. Although your niece's asthma puts her at higher risk than most kids, it might be comforting to know that the attack rate for children is very low for coronavirus, and deaths quite rare. Just one of the many mysteries of this virus, which would be fascinating if we weren't all potentially part of the study group.

 

[hnthomps]

Viral pneumonias are definitely a different beast from "regular" pneumonias. I'm sorry that your family went through this. Although your niece's asthma puts her at higher risk than most kids, it might be comforting to know that the attack rate for children is very low for coronavirus, and deaths quite rare. Just one of the many mysteries of this virus, which would be fascinating if we weren't all potentially part of the study group.

I am not in a medical field, and will presumably screw this up, but a contact of mine (who is originally from mainland China, and thus has been tracking this very closely through family, friends, and the kind of access wealthy expats have) said that the way the virus attacks immune systems makes it more dangerous from people who've had more illnesses in their lives. So the elderly are particularly at risk, and children are (generally speaking) less at risk because they have less that can be attacked. However, I'd assume that means children who have had lots of illnesses in their lives will be just as vulnerable as adults, unfortunately.

 

[QueenElinor]

I am not in a medical field, and will presumably screw this up, but a contact of mine (who is originally from mainland China, and thus has been tracking this very closely through family, friends, and the kind of access wealthy expats have) said that the way the virus attacks immune systems makes it more dangerous from people who've had more illnesses in their lives. So the elderly are particularly at risk, and children are (generally speaking) less at risk because they have less that can be attacked. However, I'd assume that means children who have had lots of illnesses in their lives will be just as vulnerable as adults, unfortunately.

I could see where he might think that- there's a segment of people who get what's called a "cytokine storm" and their body overreacts to the virus. So you might think that people with a lot of antibodies to previous infections might over-react, too.

But I don't think that is very clear-cut. The illnesses that go along with higher death rates in this virus are not the ones you'd expect to see- instead it's things like high blood pressure and heart disease. It's very odd. Also, there seems to be worse outcomes among smokers, which is not so odd.

Definitely, people of any age with a chronic medical illness affecting the heart, lungs or immune system need to be careful. Statistics are one thing, your own personal health is another matter entirely.

But ultimately, I'll just use that well-known doctor cop-out word that say the causes of severe illness with this disease are "multifactorial". A fancy way to say "We don't know just yet."

 

[Adventurelawyer]

At least I’m not condescending. and I don’t insult people. I never claimed to work in infectious disease. I think you may have me confused with someone else. Yes I’m just a low on the food chain RN that works my butt off taking care of people.. I’m only reporting what I see and what we do where I work. Thanks for putting me in my place.

I have not begun to condescend nor will I when rational and fearful people come looking for advice, all I have ever done was to suggest calm, rational, SCIENCE based discussion, without adding 8chan conspiracy theories about alphabet agencies, armed civilians, fema camps.
You have absolutely claimed to work in Infectious Disease on another thread. Nurses are frontline workers and thank god for them, but with all due condescension, you do not know what you are talking about beyond your own hospital and even then I may be stating things too generously. I can see that I absolutely will have to start screen capping your responses so you can't deny the controversial and conspiratorial things you have posted by later editing them, as you did your alphabet agencies and more people dying post from a week or so ago. You are pushing fear, and conspiracy, without reason.

 

[smmco]

I have not begun to condescend nor will I when rational and fearful people come looking for advice, all I have ever done was to suggest calm, rational, SCIENCE based discussion, without adding 8chan conspiracy theories about alphabet agencies, armed civilians, fema camps.
You have absolutely claimed to work in Infectious Disease on another thread. Nurses are frontline workers and thank god for them, but with all due condescension, you do not know what you are talking about beyond your own hospital and even then I may be stating things too generously. I have absocan see that I absolutely will have to start screen capping your responses so you can't deny the controversial and conspiratorial things you have posted by later editing them, as you did your alphabet agencies and more people dying post from a week or so ago. You are pushing fear, and conspiracy, without reason.

I’ve stated many times that I don’t think this is a deadly pandemic so I’m not sure how I’m spreading fear. You seem to be still hung up the alphabet soup comment...not sure why. If it does turn out to be the deadly pandemic. I’ll be the one on the front line risking my health and my families health. I won’t be sitting behind some desk looking at stats insulting people on the disboards or telling them not to contribute to a discussion because I disagree with them or they are not educated enough to have an opinion. If you don’t like my opinions just ignore them and move on.. I have absolutely never said I work in infectious disease.

 

[AquaDame]

I have not begun to condescend nor will I when rational and fearful people come looking for advice, all I have ever done was to suggest calm, rational, SCIENCE based discussion, without adding 8chan conspiracy theories about alphabet agencies, armed civilians, fema camps.
You have absolutely claimed to work in Infectious Disease on another thread. Nurses are frontline workers and thank god for them, but with all due condescension, you do not know what you are talking about beyond your own hospital and even then I may be stating things too generously. I can see that I absolutely will have to start screen capping your responses so you can't deny the controversial and conspiratorial things you have posted by later editing them, as you did your alphabet agencies and more people dying post from a week or so ago. You are pushing fear, and conspiracy, without reason.

I’ve stated many times that I don’t think this is a deadly pandemic so I’m not sure how I’m spreading fear. You seem to be still hung up the alphabet soup comment...not sure why. If it does turn out to be the deadly pandemic. I’ll be the one on the front line risking my health and my families health. I won’t be sitting behind some desk looking at stats insulting people on the disboards or telling them not to contribute to a discussion because I disagree with them or they are not educated enough to have an opinion. If you don’t like my opinions just ignore them and move on.. I have absolutely never said I work in infectious disease.

I think you both should probably take a deep breath and step back as this is getting quite heated and personal arguments shouldn't be a focus in this thread. If someone is posting misinformation or you have a concern, please report it rather than engaging and we'll do our best.

Reading back through your responses I get a feeling you were both on the same page, but reading each others comments wrong (or perhaps things were edited before I read them?). You both are saying its ill advised to run to the ER to get tested, but that if someone shows up with respiratory illness anyway they'll likely be checked for flu and perhaps CV. Seems right to me, but I am not in any position to know.

 

[DisneYE]

I think you both should probably take a deep breath and step back as this is getting quite heated and personal arguments shouldn't be a focus in this thread. If someone is posting misinformation or you have a concern, please report it rather than engaging and we'll do our best.

Reading back through your responses I get a feeling you were both on the same page, but reading each others comments wrong (or perhaps things were edited before I read them?). You both are saying its ill advised to run to the ER to get tested, but that if someone shows up with respiratory illness anyway they'll likely be checked for flu and perhaps CV. Seems right to me, but I am not in any position to know.

IMHO you should close/delete this thread. - as well as the other coronavirus one.
Ppl are getting way too worked up about this issue and/or peddling conspiracy theories that all they do is stoke fear and anxiety on others.

 

[AquaDame]

IMHO you should close/delete this thread. - as well as the other coronavirus one.
Ppl are getting way too worked up about this issue and/or peddling conspiracy theories that all they do is stoke fear and anxiety on others.

It may come to that - I've put both on my watch list now, so if they can't move on reasonably and serve a purpose, they'll be locked. I'd like to have at least ONE place people can talk about it so fingers crossed.

 

[smmco]

I think you both should probably take a deep breath and step back as this is getting quite heated and personal arguments shouldn't be a focus in this thread. If someone is posting misinformation or you have a concern, please report it rather than engaging and we'll do our best.

Reading back through your responses I get a feeling you were both on the same page, but reading each others comments wrong (or perhaps things were edited before I read them?). You both are saying its ill advised to run to the ER to get tested, but that if someone shows up with respiratory illness anyway they'll likely be checked for flu and perhaps CV. Seems right to me, but I am not in any position to know.

Thank our you for stepping in. No I have not edited posts unless I made a typo.

 

[QueenElinor]

It may come to that - I've put both on my watch list now, so if they can't move on reasonably and serve a purpose, they'll be locked. I'd like to have at least ONE place people can talk about it so fingers crossed.

Thank you. I agree with you that people do need a place to talk with others about this problem. I haven't seen any conspiracy theories get going here without one of us re-directing the conversation.

People ARE afraid, there's a lot of anxiety, but the Dis Boards are also full of smart, supportive people who might be able to help each other a bit. Believe me, we are better than the alternatives- twitter, Facebook, they are a horrible place to be right now. I wade through there every day looking for the latest good and reliable knowledge, but unless you know what you're doing, quite frankly they are terrible, inaccurate, racist, and scary.

I appreciate that there is a travel-oriented forum for us to air our views and pose questions. Thanks for not shutting down the thread. It's times like these that the good-hearted nature of the average Disney fan is really helpful, all by itself.

 

[GlamMistress]

Another passenger from DP has died.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1232124151789477889

 

[0FF TO NEVERLAND]

Told my wife today, if we have to cancel our northern Italy trip in May because of this, we’re going to Disney instead ( decision would be made mid April )

I just hope nothing gets out of hand here and gets better in Italy.

 

[smmco]

Thank you. I agree with you that people do need a place to talk with others about this problem. I haven't seen any conspiracy theories get going here without one of us re-directing the conversation.

People ARE afraid, there's a lot of anxiety, but the Dis Boards are also full of smart, supportive people who might be able to help each other a bit. Believe me, we are better than the alternatives- twitter, Facebook, they are a horrible place to be right now. I wade through there every day looking for the latest good and reliable knowledge, but unless you know what you're doing, quite frankly they are terrible, inaccurate, racist, and scary.

I appreciate that there is a travel-oriented forum for us to air our views and pose questions. Thanks for not shutting down the thread. It's times like these that the good-hearted nature of the average Disney fan is really helpful, all by itself.

As far as conspiracies go that's pretty subjective. Personally, I prefer alternative news sources and other points of view. I respect that some people don't.

There does seem to be a lot of anxiety on social media. Some people are afraid of getting sick, some losing their freedom, and some of the economic implications. I tend to fear the latter two. It's funny I work in a hospital and nobody talks about the Coronavirus. We're all exposed to so much nasty stuff on a daily basis...it's kind of a big "whatever". I guess that's how you want your healthcare workers to be....not sitting home afraid to go to work.

 

[smmco]

I may not have a Ph.D. in infectious disease or be able to rattle off a bunch of stats, but I do think I have something to contribute to the discussion. If this does spread to my city. I'll be the one taking care of the sick. What I see may be of some interest.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

I really want to boom my May cruise as the GT rate have come out, but I'm afraid that being Italian they won't let me board!

Also did you guys hear about then 1000 people in quarantine in an hotel in tenerife because an Italian tested positive...

 

[Silvermist999]

I really want to boom my May cruise as the GT rate have come out, but I'm afraid that being Italian they won't let me board!

Also did you guys hear about then 1000 people in quarantine in an hotel in tenerife because an Italian tested positive...

Yes, apparently he is an Italian doctor in Canary Islands. So scary.

I also read that Tom Cruise was actually in Venice to start filming MI7 this past week but they have since left the country.