POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[Herding_Cats]

@DopeyBadger i may have missed it, but you are speculating about C being a POT corral, right? We don’t know for sure if that’s going to the the case, or is that a “before-times” thing they used to do?

 

[DopeyBadger]

Am I understanding it correctly that in signing up for Dopey you only enter one POT? So either a half marathon or a full? And then they use the formula in the OP to assign the other corral? So, for example if you entered a sub-4hr marathon you would be in corral A for the full and the half, even if you don't have a sub 1:53:45 POT for the half? Sorry if this is super obvious and I'm just being dumb.

In case someone else has a similar question, the below are three scenarios. The information in this post is based on what runDisney has done in the recent past and doesn't mean 100% they will continue to use the same system.



Sally, Jane, and Tonya are all signing up for the Dopey Challenge. They will refer to the table at the top of the image labeled "WDW M, Goofy, Dopey Corrals". They all have a single HM and M that is submittable based on the guidelines of race weekend.

Sally
Sally's HM POT is 1:55:00. If she submits her 1:55:00, then she will be seeded in Corral B.
Sally's M POT is 3:59:00. If she submits her 3:59:00, then she will be seeded in Corral A.
Sally should submit the 3:59:00 because according to runDisney's race equivalency calculation it is the better performance of the two and thus she will be more likely to be seeded higher.

Jane
Jane's HM POT is 2:00:00. If she submits her 2:00:00, then she will be seeded in Corral B.
Jane's M POT is 4:35:00. If she submits her 4:35:00, then she will be seeded in Corral C.
Jane should submit the 2:00:00 because according to runDisney's race equivalency calculation it is the better performance of the two and thus she will be more likely to be seeded higher.

Tonya
Tonya's HM POT is 1:35:00. If she submits her 1:35:00, then she will be seeded in Corral A.
Tonya's M POT is 3:15:00. If she submits her 3:15:00, then she will be seeded in Corral A.
Tonya Could submit either the 1:35 or 3:15 and both will seed her into Corral A. However, Tonya could use the M conversion calculation (seen at the bottom of the image) of T2=T1*(D2/D1)^1.079 to determine which of the two is a better performance for the purpose of vanity of a lower bib number because runDisney ranks each individuals POT against each other after conversion to a single value.

T2= 1:35 * (26.22/13.11) ^ 1.079
T2= 1:35 * (2) ^ 1.079
T2= 1:35 * 2.11
T2= 3:20:42

So if we convert the 1:35 HM POT into a race equivalent M performance, then we get a 3:20:42. A 3:20 is slower than a 3:15, thus Tonya should submit the 3:15 M POT purely for a vanity purpose. One could argue that if Tonya had two competing times within Corral B (like 2:00 HM and 4:08 M) she should do the same calculation as above on the off chance runDisney changes their POT system and uses faster cutoffs.

@DopeyBadger i may have missed it, but you are speculating about C being a POT corral, right? We don’t know for sure if that’s going to the the case, or is that a “before-times” thing they used to do?

Yes, I am speculating that Corral C will be the same time pod as previously (first non-POT of 4:30-5:00) except now it will require a POT. I'm also speculating that they'll move Platinum Club runDisney back to Corral C, which would represent the slowest POT, unless an individual runner has a POT that qualifies them for higher seeding.

In 2014-2017, runDisney used 16 corrals and the POT cutoff was 5:30-6:30 based on the year. The focus was a near even distribution of runners within each corral. So the cutoffs were hard to predict, but pods of 500-2000 runners per corral were used. There were many issues with this system and they moved away from it.



In 2018-2020, runDisney used 8 corrals and the POT cutoff was 5:30. They poded each 30 min segment into their own pod ignoring the number of people assigned to an individual corral and used mini-waves to spread things out. In my opinion, this system solved many of their issues in 2014-2017 and I suspect runDisney would agree.



In 2021-2024, runDisney used 5-6 corrals and the POT cutoff was 4:30-5:00. They combined the 3:40 and sub 4 corrals into a single, and it appears they typically combined the 6:00-6:30 and 6:30-7:00. Based on the number of runners in sub 3:40 and sub 4, this move made sense (5% and 5%), and the combination of 6:00-7:00 does make a much larger corral but mini-waves mostly mitigate those issues.

Based on past weekends, POT submissions of sub 4 will have 10-12% of the field, submissions of 4:00-4:30 will have 10-12% of the field, and submissions of 4:30-5:00 will have 10-12% of the field. Based on this, I anticipate with a high degree of confidence that runDisney will continue to use the system they have since 2018 and pod the POTs in 30 min blocks. I don't see a benefit in this system to having the corrals be A (sub 4) and 10-12% of field and B (sub 5) with 20-25% of the field. Nor do I see a benefit to A (sub 4:15) 15-18% of the field and B (sub 5) 15-18% of the field. Doesn't mean runDisney won't do it that way, but based on past behavior I anticipate the breakdown like I posted in the OP. With that being said, runDisney has surprised me before.

 

[The Expert]

Yes, I am speculating that Corral C will be the same time pod as previously (first non-POT of 4:30-5:00) except now it will require a POT. I'm also speculating that they'll move Platinum Club runDisney back to Corral C, which would represent the slowest POT, unless an individual runner has a POT that qualifies them for higher seeding.

I suspect this is likely. I'm very interested to see what's done at F&W!

 

[Naomeri]

I suspect this is likely. I'm very interested to see what's done at F&W!

I’m hoping we find out from people at the DL Halloween races so I know what to expect for W&D, though I’ll be sad to move backward—I enjoy the “less time standing up/shuffling toward the start line’’ that comes with a B assignment.

 

[The Expert]

I’m hoping we find out from people at the DL Halloween races so I know what to expect for W&D, though I’ll be sad to move backward—I enjoy the “less time standing up/shuffling toward the start line’’ that comes with a B assignment.

Oh right! That's now the start of the season, isn't it? And yes, I agree I'll be a little bummed, but it shouldn't be that far back if the corrals are still small.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I’m hoping we find out from people at the DL Halloween races so I know what to expect for W&D, though I’ll be sad to move backward—I enjoy the “less time standing up/shuffling toward the start line’’ that comes with a B assignment.

Oh right! That's now the start of the season, isn't it? And yes, I agree I'll be a little bummed, but it shouldn't be that far back if the corrals are still small.

Yea, if my forecast is correct, then the difference between start of Corral B and start of Corral C is 3-6 minutes. So you wouldn't really lose much time in terms of waiting to start.

 

[Naomeri]

Yea, if my forecast is correct, then the difference between start of Corral B and start of Corral C is 3-6 minutes. So you wouldn't really lose much time in terms of waiting to start.

I hope so

 

[dobball23]

In 2014-2017, runDisney used 16 corrals and the POT cutoff was 5:30-6:30 based on the year. The focus was a near even distribution of runners within each corral. So the cutoffs were hard to predict, but pods of 500-2000 runners per corral were used. There were many issues with this system and they moved away from it.

What were the issues? That seems to be the best way to distribute runners by appropriate speed vs. what is used now.

 

[camaker]

What were the issues? That seems to be the best way to distribute runners by appropriate speed vs. what is used now.

The issues were pretty much exactly the same as they are now. I started running Marathon Weekend in 2016 and the first couple of years really had no fewer issues/complaints than today's races. One thing that I'll say has changed, though, is there seem to be a lot fewer complaints of corral hopping and bib muling for PoT these days. I'm not going to say it doesn't still happen, but it's not nearly as prevalent a complaint.

Ultimately, that methodology wasn't substantially different than what's done now, with the exception of the PoT threshold being pushed a little further back. You still had a large majority of the field without a PoT being artificially sorted into mostly arbitrary corrals. Larger corrals with mini-wave starts accomplishes the same thing without requiring nearly as much manpower or materiel.

 

[Cabius]

Larger corrals with mini-wave starts accomplishes the same thing without requiring nearly as much manpower or materiel.

This. Mini-waves still let them control the speed and density of start, so it's not like it went from a well-paced start to absolute bedlam. But now they only have to staff/police a handful of corral entrances.

 

[The Expert]

But now they only have to staff/police a handful of corral entrances.

Exactly. And IMHO this is the best resource they can spend. If you've ever been to a race where they don't police the corrals well (looking at you, RnR Vegas), it's CHAOS.

 

[MouseInTX]

I didn't find RnR Vegas tooooo bad... The fact that the first three corrals entered within 20ft of each other was a nightmare. But once in, it wasn't awful.

 

[The Expert]

I didn't find RnR Vegas tooooo bad... The fact that the first three corrals entered within 20ft of each other was a nightmare. But once it, it wasn't awful.

The three times I did it, I was in the first corral of the second wave and it felt like everybody in the wave was trying to get into my corral. There was a bottleneck so packed I actually feared for my physical safety and ended up just hanging back until things cleared up. My last one was 2019, so I'm glad to hear it has improved.

 

[DopeyBadger]

What were the issues? That seems to be the best way to distribute runners by appropriate speed vs. what is used now.

So much like now, the first non-POT corral had many people selecting the same value.



Back then, you typed in your non-POT selection and people learned that typing in 5:31 was different than 5:30. So once everyone figured that out a significant number of people typed in 5:30. Well based on data from different weekend, about 25-30% of the field selects the fastest non-POT regardless of what the choice is. So if there are 15,000 runners, then 3750-4500 runners had the exact same selection. Well now if you're using an arbitrary cutoff of say 1500 runners per corral, it means there's no additional way to separate the 3 groups of 1500 runners that make up the 4500 runners. So runDisney made those three corrals J, K, and L. But back then they also released the corral information a few weeks before the race weekend. Based on the responses on here and the DIS, it's safe to assume they were inundated with emails from Jack and Sally about how they put the same corral info but were placed into different corrals. Likely inundated with runner relations people as well. runDisney always correctly stated that someone could drop back corrals if your desired group was split, but that didn't seem to satisfy everyone. This wouldn't be solved with the newer non-POT system that uses the drop down choices (5:30-6:00) either. If would just guarantee having 4500 runners with no way to differentiate them. In some ways it's not dissimilar to the 5k/10k assignments which doesn't appear to strictly adhere to the dropdown menu selections, and then two people with 8-10 min don't get the same assignment.

So they made a move to a single corral. The 3-6 mini-waves within the single Corral D are the J, K, and L corrals of old. Now instead you can self seed with your friends within that corral into the same mini-wave (hence the same J, K, or L corral). So the end result can be similar, but I imagine the move to less corrals/mini-waves/not releasing information ahead of time has saved a lot of emails and headaches for runDisney. Hence my belief that's why they much prefer this system over the old one.

 

[PeppercornElvis]

Hi @DopeyBadger! Thanks for everything you do on here. Just wanted to chime in that for my 2024 Dopey, I had submitted a POT half-marathon time of 1:53:58 and somehow ended up in the A corral. I was shocked and very happy, because I felt certain that my time would place me in B corral. Anyway, just wanted to mention that since I see 1:53:45 as the cutoff time on the latest chart.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Hi @DopeyBadger! Thanks for everything you do on here. Just wanted to chime in that for my 2024 Dopey, I had submitted a POT half-marathon time of 1:53:58 and somehow ended up in the A corral. I was shocked and very happy, because I felt certain that my time would place me in B corral. Anyway, just wanted to mention that since I see 1:53:45 as the cutoff time on the latest chart.

Thanks for the note! I can make that change on the table. My recollection was that was one of the values runDisney shared with me about a conversion and said it was "around there". So makes sense that being off by 13 seconds fell within the window this time around. Same with the 2:08:02 vs "2:08" they gave me.

 

[Cabius]

Thanks for the note! I can make that change on the table. My recollection was that was one of the values runDisney shared with me about a conversion and said it was "around there". So makes sense that being off by 13 seconds fell within the window this time around. Same with the 2:08:02 vs "2:08" they gave me.

I wouldn't be surprised if they had a general guideline, and then a couple of people looked at a sorted list of submitted times and drew a line based on how many people are close. You know, if a couple of people are a couple of seconds off, let them in, but not if it overstuffs the corral.

They're "more what you'd call guidelines, than actual rules."

 

[DopeyBadger]

I wouldn't be surprised if they had a general guideline, and then a couple of people looked at a sorted list of submitted times and drew a line based on how many people are close. You know, if a couple of people are a couple of seconds off, let them in, but not if it overstuffs the corral.

They're "more what you'd call guidelines, than actual rules."

I agree, that's the general feeling runDisney gave me when they gave me the info.

 

[PeppercornElvis]

I agree, that's the general feeling runDisney gave me when they gave me the info.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking as well. Felt really lucky though! But it also makes me happy that I sprinted as fast as I could that last 1/8 of a mile to the finish. My friends at the finish said I looked super focused and didn't even look their way. I believe I shaved several seconds off my time with that effort and it paid off.

I will be submitting the same race/POT this year, so it will be interesting if I end up in the B corral this time around.

 

[kps7795]

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking as well. Felt really lucky though! But it also makes me happy that I sprinted as fast as I could that last 1/8 of a mile to the finish. My friends at the finish said I looked super focused and didn't even look their way. I believe I shaved several seconds off my time with that effort and it paid off.

I will be submitting the same race/POT this year, so it will be interesting if I end up in the B corral this time around.

You're preaching to the choir. I make a point of giving the Photopass photographers HUGE smiles as I'm running past them let alone at the Finish Line. For my POT race, I had some of the ugliest pictures of me as I was straining to run my hardest trying to beat the clock. There was a part of me that wanted a picture of my PR race, but I told my wife that I look like I'm running to find a bathroom in every single picture!