Resale market drying up?

BlackTea

Earning My Ears
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
I guess it is on the same website, seeing the number of VGF contracts for sale are 25% more than SSR...is it normal? Or indication the VGF price is too inflated? and I also noticed a lot of reasonably priced SSR sold fairly quickly...to me, buyers are still there, just some of the sellers became too greedy.
 
Last edited:

tnicks

Mouseketeer
Joined
Mar 27, 2017
I've been looking for a 150 or less point SSR contract with an October use year for several months now. I don't remember it being this hard to find one when I first bought.

I'm not here shopping for anybody to sell me their contract, I'm just noting an observation that the supply isn't what I feel like I remember it used to being. Has anybody else noticed this? Or am I just crazy (possible.)
Welcome to a healthy economy with the lowest unemployment rates most have seen in their lifetime. Less people need to ditch their contracts.
 

Soap_1984

Mouseketeer
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
I am not so sure, seems like there is a lot of inventory if you check the multiple sites, just perhaps fewer sales. As many have said, if you were right prices should be higher as demand exceeds supply; it doesn't look like that is what is happening. It seems like a buyers market at the moment
 
  • tnicks

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Mar 27, 2017
    I am not so sure, seems like there is a lot of inventory if you check the multiple sites, just perhaps fewer sales. As many have said, if you were right prices should be higher as demand exceeds supply; it doesn't look like that is what is happening. It seems like a buyers market at the moment
    Two years ago I was buying AKV for $79 dollars and I just bought lower than the market average at $103. That's not a buyers market trend. Any downtrend we might be seeing in the short term is more likely affected by recent month ROFR buyback rates and the EOY season we are in, when prices usually dip a bit.

    When you see prices drop 20% then you'll know.
     

    Brianstl

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 8, 2019
    Two years ago I was buying AKV for $79 dollars and I just bought lower than the market average at $103. That's not a buyers market trend. Any downtrend we might be seeing in the short term is more likely affected by recent month ROFR buyback rates and the EOY season we are in, when prices usually dip a bit.

    When you see prices drop 20% then you'll know.
    AKV was averaging $115 pp in October 2018. $103 pp is a 10.4% discount.

    Last October Poly was averaging $156 pp. According to the ROFR thread, a 100 point contract with all the 19 and 20 points just cleared at $130 pp. That is a 16.7% drop. Something is happening.
     

    Soap_1984

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Sep 30, 2019
    Yeah $79 with inflation is $85 today and the direct price has gone up massively in that time which could just as easily explain the increase of $15-20/pp difference vs. just assuming there's no supply. Direct prices going way up are going to impact resale.
     

    Bellecruiser

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    May 23, 2009
    AKV was averaging $115 pp in October 2018. $103 pp is a 10.4% discount.

    Last October Poly was averaging $156 pp. According to the ROFR thread, a 100 point contract with all the 19 and 20 points just cleared at $130 pp. That is a 16.7% drop. Something is happening.
    It’s getting to be a good time to buy, and making low offers!
     

    Matty B13

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 13, 2016
    Seems like a lot of Poly is going for around the $130's, I wonder if it will make to the $120's?????
     

    Matty B13

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 13, 2016
    I got one for 125 loaded with 1.5X points.
    If i can replicate it in the near future I would buy another one.
    That's awesome!!! It will be interesting with the new resale restrictions and with only studios (I don't think the bungalows are a real option for most people) how low the price will go. Seems like a lot of the brokers out there have a ton of contracts for sale right now for Poly.
     

    tnicks

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Mar 27, 2017
    Yeah $79 with inflation is $85 today and the direct price has gone up massively in that time which could just as easily explain the increase of $15-20/pp difference vs. just assuming there's no supply. Direct prices going way up are going to impact resale.
    Disney raising DVC prices significantly also signals a strong economy since it indicates they believe the market can sustain the increased cost. From what I recall, DVC prices always has an annual cyclical pattern in pricing. I thought we were just in the lower demand / lower supply phase.
     

    Soap_1984

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Sep 30, 2019
    Disney raising DVC prices significantly also signals a strong economy since it indicates they believe the market can sustain the increased cost. From what I recall, DVC prices always has an annual cyclical pattern in pricing. I thought we were just in the lower demand / lower supply phase.
    So what is the thesis? Comparing average resale prices as a percentage of direct prices seem to be even lower than two years ago. I don't think disney direct price raises are a great indicator of the economy; they wouldn't be jacking direct prices up that high if they were selling full resorts. The jack them up to incentivize purchasing the resorts they want to sell, but that does drive up the resale price because there are a number of buyers who want to add a specific resort; resale is a pure market driven system whereas direct is totally manipulated by disney to sell what they want. Resale is not a "sale", direct DVC is a sale and that also plays a role. I do still believe it's a buyers market and seriously good deals are being had.
     

    Wakey

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Dec 22, 2015
    I just saw someone buy an SSR with 18 points banked into 19, plus 19 banked to 20 and all 2020 points. $100 a point. It would have gone for more in summer for sure. Smallish contract.
     

    sethschroeder

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2013
    Seeing a lot of “price reduced” and “price reduced again” notations on some of the DVC resale websites,
    From what I have been checking ita because of over priced contracts. I am not seeing anything that is showing reduced and is some killer deal or anything.

    AKV was averaging $115 pp in October 2018. $103 pp is a 10.4% discount.

    Last October Poly was averaging $156 pp. According to the ROFR thread, a 100 point contract with all the 19 and 20 points just cleared at $130 pp. That is a 16.7% drop. Something is happening.
    I mean I was seeing $105 all over the price since the start of the summer. It was not until about September I started to only see $110 or $115 all the time. So while average might be $115 it is overpriced in my mind.

    I mean someone just paid $140 for BWV but that's way overpriced from my view tracking all this year.
     

    BlackTea

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Feb 18, 2019
    From what I have been checking ita because of over priced contracts. I am not seeing anything that is showing reduced and is some killer deal or anything.



    I mean I was seeing $105 all over the price since the start of the summer. It was not until about September I started to only see $110 or $115 all the time. So while average might be $115 it is overpriced in my mind.

    I mean someone just paid $140 for BWV but that's way overpriced from my view tracking all this year.
    If you are talking about DVC resale market site, that is also my observation. Based on one conversation with their agent, starting from September, they stopped asking buyers to pay 2019 dues, even for fully loaded contract, accordingly, price per point go up by 7-10 dollars to make it even. This is understandable, and also a good strategy, but it may have some unexpected impact. First, other sites followed with the price hike, but they didn’t stop asking buyers to pay 2019 dues, as a result, price became too high, then no sales. Second, sellers of those stripped contract bumped price too. Then suddenly we are here, an overpriced market.
     

    poofyo101

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Aug 13, 2019
    If you are talking about DVC resale market site, that is also my observation. Based on one conversation with their agent, starting from September, they stopped asking buyers to pay 2019 dues, even for fully loaded contract, accordingly, price per point go up by 7-10 dollars to make it even. This is understandable, and also a good strategy, but it may have some unexpected impact. First, other sites followed with the price hike, but they didn’t stop asking buyers to pay 2019 dues, as a result, price became too high, then no sales. Second, sellers of those stripped contract bumped price too. Then suddenly we are here, an overpriced market.
    Yeah really hard to judge pricing from site to site as the ones who charge the fees on the previous years points inflate the price significantly.
     

    TikiRob

    In a Tropical Hideaway
    Joined
    Apr 4, 2018
    Where can I find DVC resale websites...we are getting seriously interested in buying one soon.
    I'd like to know, too. Obviously, I've been looking at DVC Store to support this site, but are there other reputable resellers?
     

    sndral

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 3, 2008
    Where can I find DVC resale websites...we are getting seriously interested in buying one soon.
    I'd like to know, too. Obviously, I've been looking at DVC Store to support this site, but are there other reputable resellers?
    See CarolMN’s post #3 in this thread for links to several brokers https://www.disboards.com/threads/best-and-safest-dvc-resale-sites.3636385/
    Sign up for email alerts from all the brokers. There are additional brokers so you might do a google search to add to the list. I’ve used Fidelity and the Timeshare store, both were fine, the Timeshare store was better at keeping me advised of what was happening.
     

    _auroraborealis_

    I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
    Joined
    Oct 18, 2015
    I don't think the numbers of poly contracts for sale means much. We are at that time after Poly launch where people who bought without considering the long term run into the wall and sell. It happens with most resorts. Expect to see it with CCV in 3-5 years.
     

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