Riviera Resale

[Sandisw]

That would be a big change, are there any other data points to support this?

Even if true today, buying RCI (or moving restricted RIV points to RCI) with the intention of using it on DVC would be very risky given the much longer history of it being near impossible to book DVC with RCI.

Just to clarify, DVC points moved to RCI are not eligible to use for DVC rooms deposited into RCI.

 

[RivShore]

Just to clarify, DVC points moved to RCI are not eligible to use for DVC rooms deposited into RCI.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought the PP had implied this was possible but I may have misread it.

 

[CarolynFH]

I honestly do not know, I only can speak for my one friend who has RCI and never had a problem. I do not own RCI but am considering a Marriott purchase.

Be aware that at this time, Marriott doesn't trade in RCI, so you couldn't use it to stay at DVC resorts. OTOH, the Marriott resorts in Orlando are lovely, the rooms are larger than corresponding DVC villas, and some of them are just as easy and quick to drive to the parks as DVC resorts are, so if I were in the market to buy another TS, I'd strongly consider Marriott.

ETA DVC used to trade in Interval International, which is the exchange company Marriott uses. I don't think there's anything that would prevent DVC from switching again, but I also don't think there are any rumors that they're planning to switch.

 

[CP3uhoh]

I wondering if a "win/win" going forward for restrictions (OG 14 aside) would be that any property that is sold resale has booking rights to the home resort at 11 and all properties that came before at 7. No rights to book for anything built after BUT if you buy direct, any property, you have rights to all properties now and in the future until you sell....

Basically if you bought RIV resale, you'd get Riviera and the original 14 but nothing going forward like DLT or Reflections. But if you buy direct you get everything now and in the future. I think that would incentivize people enough to buy direct, especially with pre construction specials because they know they get the new shiny toy plus all future ones but can still sell to a buyer who says this one and the 14 (currently) before are fine for me.

 

[Sandisw]

I wondering if a "win/win" going forward for restrictions (OG 14 aside) would be that any property that is sold resale has booking rights to the home resort at 11 and all properties that came before at 7. No rights to book for anything built after BUT if you buy direct, any property, you have rights to all properties now and in the future until you sell....

Basically if you bought RIV resale, you'd get Riviera and the original 14 but nothing going forward like DLT or Reflections. But if you buy direct you get everything now and in the future. I think that would incentivize people enough to buy direct, especially with pre construction specials because they know they get the new shiny toy plus all future ones but can still sell to a buyer who says this one and the 14 (currently) before are fine for me.

Here is the thing we are not privy to. I don’t think DVD sees it as anything right now but a win/win,

It is selling with restrictions. Sales can always be higher, but this had to be a long game and not a short one and it has not been a complete flop.

Of course, with Covid, they may decide they need to do something, but in my opinion, I bet they’d do something less drastic like allowing people to add on equal number of direct points and upgrade points, pay per reservation, etc.

People are still buying RIV resale, and So far for a nice amount...although someone just posted they got one for $110 today!

 

[i<3riviera]

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[RivShore]

and it's not a hard drive, several thousand floppy disks ...

Well you are dealing with the government and Disney IT so I'm surprised it's not punch cards...

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Just to clarify, DVC points moved to RCI are not eligible to use for DVC rooms deposited into RCI.

My understanding was that DVC points transferred into RCI are now available for owners with RCI points. That is how the RCI system works. If i give up my week at the BCV into RCI that is now available in RCI. RCI typically has 1 bedroom DVC stays. So if someone deposits RR into RCI that is now available in RCI points. DVC rooms do go quickly in RCI and RCI owners do stalk the trade sites regularly. My friend a couple years ago wanted an MK resort for specific date (we were planning to overlap and she had specific dates requested off from work) as soon as BRV came up she grabbed it for the MK resort choice. Granted I know she searched every day. What she told me and what she was told by RCI was available resorts was all dependent on what resorts were deposited into RCI. Now I am not quite sure what happens once those points go into RCI but I know she told me rooms go quickly. We were looking together a couple years ago for a girls weekend trip to HHI. There was a choice of two and three bedrooms available one day that was not the day before and literally the next they were all gone. So it seems DVC inventory deposited into RCI moves very quickly.

 

[Sandisw]

My understanding was that DVC points transferred into RCI are now available for owners with RCI points. That is how the RCI system works. If i give up my week at the BCV into RCI that is now available in RCI. RCI typically has 1 bedroom DVC stays. So if someone deposits RR into RCI that is now available in RCI points. DVC rooms do go quickly in RCI and RCI owners do stalk the trade sites regularly. My friend a couple years ago wanted an MK resort for specific date (we were planning to overlap and she had specific dates requested off from work) as soon as BRV came up she grabbed it for the MK resort choice. Granted I know she searched every day. What she told me and what she was told by RCI was available resorts was all dependent on what resorts were deposited into RCI. Now I am not quite sure what happens once those points go into RCI but I know she told me rooms go quickly. We were looking together a couple years ago for a girls weekend trip to HHI. There was a choice of two and three bedrooms available one day that was not the day before and literally the next they were all gone. So it seems DVC inventory deposited into RCI moves very quickly.

Sorry. Maybe I wasn’t clear. If I deposit DVC points into RCI, I am not allowed to then use those same points in the RCI system to book a DVC room.

I believe there are also other Orlando area places that won’t show up.

Now if I owned other timeshare points and had trading into RCI, DVC rooms will be an option.

But DVC owners can’t deposit to RCI and then use it as a work around to book a DVC room.

And DVC is not required to send the same resort to RCI. So BCV points deposited does not mean a BCV room goes. It can be SSR or any other resort.

There is nothing that I have read that indicates RIV points going to RCI means you will be getting a RIV room to show up.

So owning timeshare points elsewhere assuming you can get RIV because resale RIV buyers could be depositing is not necessarily true.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[CP3uhoh]

that was us, hoping to get these posted in time for a studio for race weekend next fall, but probably will only be "preferred" availability at that time sadly.

 

[RivShore]

one more RVA resale deed was added today, it's one of the group of 75 point deeds that were all listed at the same time by the same owner ...

also, I noticed an error I made a whoopsie in the data; the first resale deed was bought by a flipper and resold immediately, fine no problem there; but there was a second resale deed that was bought and resold that I didn't catch before, the 110 point one bought on 18 Mar 2020 is the same deed as the one sold on 25 Sep 2020; not sure how I missed that before but here we are ...

net result still only 13 deeds have been set free via resale with two of those recycled once each (reduce, reuse, recycle ♻)

recording date	#	points	USD per point	notes
7 Aug 2019​	1a​	175​	100​	bought by flipper​
30 Oct 2019​	1b​	175​	140​	sold by flipper​
18 Mar 2020​	2a​	110​	139.1​	resold on 25 Sep 2020​
8 May 2020​	3​	412​	109.2​	​
2 Jun 2020​	4​	100​	135​	​
3 Jun 2020​	5​	125​	144​	​
11 Aug 2020​	6​	130​	135.4​	​
27 Aug 2020​	7​	175​	133.1​	​
1 Sep 2020​	8​	190​	130​	​
17 Sep 2020​	9​	195​	120​	​
25 Sep 2020​	2b​	110​	150​	second reselling (initial 18 Mar 2020)​
8 Oct 2020​	10​	100​	125​	​
9 Oct 2020​	11​	100​	140​	​
15 Oct 2020​	12​	50​	160​	​
23 Nov 2020​	13​	75​	137.3​	one of seven 75 point deeds by the same owner​

the coefficient of determination (R²) worsened slightly because the 75 point deed was just below the trendline; note: coefficient of determination (R²) ranges from 0 to 1 (at least the way I'm using it) and a higher value indicates the linear regression fits the data better; as before, with the additional data points, the outlier sale to the timeshare flipper has less of an effect (the two best-fit lines are converging) ...

View attachment 540058

Suggestion - can you add a total points resale vs. total points sold direct to this analysis? We are always curios about what the true percentage of overall points are resale and this would at least give us a real time view for one resort.

Thanks !!

 

[Sandisw]

Suggestion - can you add a total points resale vs. total points sold direct to this analysis? We are always curios about what the true percentage of overall points are resale and this would at least give us a real time view for one resort.

Thanks !!

The only hard part about this as time goes on as once a contract has been sold, it doesn’t change that number when sold a second time.

For example, the 110 that was sold, and sold again, would still only be considered 110 points as resale, because it was already resale points when sold second time.

I think that is where the figure of most resorts being 10% or so of resale buyers.

 

[CastAStone]

The only hard part about this as time goes on as once a contract has been sold, it doesn’t change that number when sold a second time.

For example, the 110 that was sold, and sold again, would still only be considered 110 points as resale, because it was already resale points when sold second time.

I think that is where the figure of most resorts being 10% or so of resale buyers.

Hard to imagine it’s only 10%. Right now on just www.DVCResaleMarket.com over .2% of all AKV, VB, and Poly points are for sale. And that’s right now on one site. Someday it would be interesting to make an actual churn report using the OC data.

 

[Sandisw]

Hard to imagine it’s only 10%. Right now on just www.DVCResaleMarket.com over .2% of all AKV, VB, and Poly points are for sale. And that’s right now on one site. Someday it would be interesting to make an actual churn report using the OC data.

If those contracts are not being sold by the original direct owner, they don’t count toward any change in resale vs. direct points percentage.

So, it’s not the number being sold on the resale market, it’s how many sellers are the original ones,

For example I sold two BWV contracts this past year, but both were bought resale. My sale didn’t impact the number of resale points, since they were resale points to begin with.

 

[CastAStone]

If those contracts are not being sold by the original direct owner, they don’t count toward any change in resale vs. direct points percentage.

So, it’s not the number being sold on the resale market, it’s how many sellers are the original ones,

For example I sold two BWV contracts this past year, but both were bought resale. My sale didn’t impact the number of resale points, since they were resale points to begin with.

Sure, but absent any reason to believe otherwise, I’d expect second order sales and third order sales to move in lockstep with first order sales. In other words, if 20% of contracts have been resold once, than you’d expect 20% of those to be reresold (4%), and 20% of those to be rereresold (0.8%), and so on. So then if I find entries in the OC database that the number of total resales equals 25% of contracts ever sold (which I believe is what @wdrl found for OKW when he looked several years ago), I’d assume 20% of all contracts were resold at least once.

For newer properties I’d expect the reresale and rereresale rates to be even lower due to lack of time to do it.

 

[Brian Noble]

absent any reason to believe otherwise, I’d expect second order sales and third order sales to move in lockstep with first order sales.

I suspect that timeshare sales look a little like a bathtub curve. If you don't sell in the first K years, it is very unlikely you will sell until quite a long time down the road.

I've said this before, but it strikes me that the selling dynamic is driven by specific events: the kids "aging out" of Disney, one or both of a couple no longer able to travel, loss of a job, or a major geographic move. Some of these are likely to be correlated across owners at a specific resort, as I am guessing that most buyers are likely to be in a similar demographic when they buy: a family with kids centered in the early grade school years, all of whom bought at that resort in a window spanning only several years.

 

[RivShore]

The only hard part about this as time goes on as once a contract has been sold, it doesn’t change that number when sold a second time.

For example, the 110 that was sold, and sold again, would still only be considered 110 points as resale, because it was already resale points when sold second time.

I think that is where the figure of most resorts being 10% or so of resale buyers.

Yes, our data maniac friend, would have to keep track of resale resles and pull them out of the ratio.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[i<3riviera]

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