Some perspective on the risk of dying from coronavirus versus normal annual risk

[LSUmiss]

That’s as of the end of April. That ignores the recent claims filed. It’s closer to 20%, and some states like GA are closer to 30%.

The estimate is that Louisiana is close to 25%. We had the highest unemployment rate in the nation already before this.

 

[Tjddis]

I am not trying to “prove” anything. The article is about perspective.

Perspective wise for my age going from .1% to .2% not so scary, at least to me.

It gives me perspective and helps me understand my risk as I decide whether to venture out as the home lock down ends in my state.

I have willingly done things some years that significantly increased my chances of dying. I have flown in private single engine planes. I have taken long cross country road trips. I have walked on an active volcano. I have gone sky diving. I have gone scuba diving. I will continue to do things that might kill me because I like living.

Well it sounds like you do a lot of fun stuff and that’s great. But I’m sure when you skydive or scuba or drive or go volcano walking you follow the prescribed safety guidelines and social requirement. You don’t say, surface from underwater to quickly or drive on the wrong side of the road right? What’s different here? Health experts are prescribing guidelines and precautions and some of us believe in following them
You are more than entitled to your perspective and not trying to talk you out of or into anything. Just giving you mine. Respect, o would never have the guts to jump out of a plane

 

[gwynne]

And agree about that except that waiting an additional 6-12 mos will come at a great cost especially since unemployment is already almost 15%.

I don't think anyone is advocating "waiting" 6-12 months or more while we twiddle our thumbs.

A serious all out effort directed at testing, tracing and quarantining
will yield the much needed severe drop in new cases.

On the other hand, constantly increasing new case numbers, along with repeated disease outbreaks in workplaces will not help unemployment or profitability.

 

[Tjddis]

It’s not that I don’t think it’s serious. I get that the other diseases cited aren’t contagious. However, the quantity of deaths has often been cited as proof that things need to be shut down. Ppl say things like it’s killed more Americans than the Vietnam war. While every death is tragic, those kinds of comparisons are made to make it seem more prolific than it is. This subject got brought up b/c a pp said that a DOCTOR on the radio said Covid has killed more ppl than heart disease & cancer combined. That’s not even close to true & is fear mongering unless he’s just that uninformed. Then it’s just negligent. And if there is no cure or vaccine, then we are just delaying the inevitable at a great cost to our economy. Flattening the curve was important b/c we didn’t want ppl dying b/c they didn’t have access to care b/c the hospitals were overwhelmed. But that has been done so we can’t just wait to try to prevent every singe death b/c the cost is just too great.

I meant no disrespect with saying some people don’t take it serious. I should rephrase and say some are more fearful than others. From my perspective I am too unsure about the ramifications of this virus and would prefer a measured, data driven reopening in order to evaluate and give med professionals more time to do their thing.

 

[RamblingMad]

I don't think anyone is advocating "waiting" 6-12 months or more while we twiddle our thumbs.

A serious all out effort directed at testing, tracing and quarantining
will yield the much needed severe drop in new cases.

On the other hand, constantly increasing new case numbers, along with repeated disease outbreaks in workplaces will not help unemployment or profitability.

I think, if we wait until the end of May, most states should be good.

The problem is that testing has been a mess nationwide. And we haven’t really started good tracing nationwide.

It’s a problem when everyone can’t buy N95 mask. We have been pushed into cloth masks, where we hope for the best.

We aren’t ready.

 

[kdonnel]

Health experts are prescribing guidelines and precautions and some of us believe in following them

I AM following the guidelines! Georgia has partially opened, I thought it was useful to use the article I posted to frame MY response to the opening. I expect everyone will see the risk differently.

 

[RamblingMad]

I AM following the guidelines! Georgia has partially opened, I thought it was useful to use the article I posted to frame MY response to the opening. I expect everyone will see the risk differently.

GA had 99 cases today. That’s a good sign.

 

[kdonnel]

GA had 99 cases today. That’s a good sign.

Georgia has also opened up testing to everyone, no symptoms required to get tested. There has not been a large spike in ICU or hospital admissions since the opening. There has been a hot spot open up associated with the poultry plants in Hall County but those were deemed essential and have been open since the beginning.

 

[jamescanuck2001]

Georgia has also opened up testing to everyone, no symptoms required to get tested. There has not been a large spike in ICU or hospital admissions since the opening. There has been a hot spot open up associated with the poultry plants in Hall County but those were deemed essential and have been open since the beginning.

And there won't be for at least another week or more, if a spike happens. Way too early for an assessment.

 

[gwynne]

Georgia has also opened up testing to everyone, no symptoms required to get tested. There has not been a large spike in ICU or hospital admissions since the opening. There has been a hot spot open up associated with the poultry plants in Hall County but those were deemed essential and have been open since the beginning.

Testing efforts, very good.
Everyone will be watching the end of May, beginning of June new case/death numbers.
Let's hope those numbers stay
down.

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

Disagree. My dad died of cancer & lived in an area that would later be nicknamed “cancer alley” (we didn't know that when he lived there). There are industries that could be shut down b/c of the contribution to cancer-causing pollution, but they’re allowed to continue to operate b/c it’s considered important to the economy.

That's an environmental situation - I get it as that's probably how I got my cancer. Cancer is not spread person to person at the rate that corona is. And I do hope "cancer alley" has improved. That's infuriating.

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

Georgia has also opened up testing to everyone, no symptoms required to get tested. There has not been a large spike in ICU or hospital admissions since the opening. There has been a hot spot open up associated with the poultry plants in Hall County but those were deemed essential and have been open since the beginning.

So it's ok that those lowly workers there get it...means nothing to anyone else.

 

[kdonnel]

So it's ok that those lowly workers there get it...means nothing to anyone else.

Who said that?

 

[mjkacmom]

Georgia has also opened up testing to everyone, no symptoms required to get tested. There has not been a large spike in ICU or hospital admissions since the opening. There has been a hot spot open up associated with the poultry plants in Hall County but those were deemed essential and have been open since the beginning.

But they weren’t supposed to. https://www.npr.org/2020/04/24/8434...pes-misinformation-litters-the-road-to-reopen

 

[Boardwalk Jedi]

Who said that?

The action of making them essential and lax attitude of the decision kind of implies that.

 

[kdonnel]

The action of making them essential and lax attitude of the decision kind of implies that.

I think it is essential everyone eats. If as a society we decided no food needed to be produced during the pandemic then I guess those that produced food could be labeled not essential.

 

[monsterkitty]

No one is denying that eating is essential or that the workers at the plants are essential employees. What most of us believe is that there should have been better precautions or just any precautions taken in the beginning.

Even after the first outbreak at one of the plants happened, the owners still did not put anything in place. They shut the plant down for 10 days and then reopened as if nothing had happened. What should have happened was testing from day one, social distancing as much as possible, and other simple precautions the workers asked for but were denied until it hit the news.

 

[cobright]

So if you get and survive a case of Coronavirus, you have about the same chance you will die from another cause sometime in the next 12 months.

The research is poorly presented. He says,

His point is that for the average adult getting infected means you are effectively doubling your risk of death.

So what he's saying is that preventing yourself from getting covid, for most adults cuts your chances of dying that year in half.

Basically it's saying that since we all tolerate the tiny chance we have of dying in some ways, we should accept anything that presents a similar risk. We accept 100 deaths a year from automobile accidents and all the other accidental deaths a year or deaths from heart disease add up to about what we're losing to coronavirus so what's the big deal with coronavirus?

Except the deaths we get from most accidents or illnesses are what happen after we do everything we can to mitigate their human toll. We have laws governing how cars are made and how people can drive them. We have laws governing protecting neighborhood kids from falling into your pool.

Also, using a logarithmic chart obscures that once you get to 65+ the chance of dying from coronavirus can be several times higher than without it.

If you read the study itself what he's advocating is the Swedish model. Isolating everyone over the age of 70 and letting the virus otherwise spread normally. Which utterly failed to protect the most vulnerable in Sweden. It seems like hubris to see a plan fail so miserably in a country with a much much better health care system (Sweden vs UK) and think the approach would come out differently if you did it. If I remember... Nemesis follows Hubris.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

I AM following the guidelines! Georgia has partially opened, I thought it was useful to use the article I posted to frame MY response to the opening. I expect everyone will see the risk differently.

But you didn't understand the numbers.

 

[cheryl.UK]

Currently one in every 2150 people in the UK have died from Covid-19. That's on top of however many died from other causes. I'm starting to not like those odds. Not sure about the US but here in the UK, the death rate from 'other causes' is also going up, often because people are too scared to go to the hospitals. Theres a rise in deaths from heart attacks and strokes.