We went first thing in the morning on Fri, got to the parking lot about 805, and park was already open at the tapstiles. Waited about 20 min in the crowd, at 830 they dropped rope. Walked with the crowd (it helps to get on the
right edge of the crowd first) into the GE entrance, towards RotR. When we got to the actual standby entrance, posted wait time was 70 min. Actual wait time from that point:
15 min.
When we got done I told the CM outside that I had a complaint. I expected a 70 min wait and only got 15. I asked if I could wait in the heat for an additional 55 min as promised, and would he time me. He said he'd be happy to (with a smile).
Posted wait time when we got out (35 minutes after we went in) was 125 minutes.
Nate the Disney vlogger did a similar wait at 4p, and said the actual wait was comparable to what he had experienced using boarding group. So it looks like Disney ran the numbers, and decided standby would work.
Just before rope drop I looked back, and the crowd was
huge. Pretty sure that the ones who arrived at 8:30 did not have a 15 minute wait like we did. It pays to arrive an hour early folks! (technically we were 30 minutes early since the park opened up at 8:30)
Right after we did RotR, MFSR was maybe 10 min. Posted was 20. Only downside of going that early was no exploring the "chess room", since they were already lining us up. DD and I got pilot though!