Aurora0427
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2014
The thing people forget is that vaccines are not treatments. It would be one thing to cut the "hoops" for a treatment and give it to a dying patient because it's worth a shot. Vaccines are given to healthy people, and they essentially work (this is oversimplified) by making you a little bit sick so your immune system will attack and build up an immunity. If an experimental treatment fails, all that happens is the death of a person who was going to die anyway. But get the vaccine wrong, and you could make the entire health crisis worse by spreading the virus more. The "hoops" simply cannot be eliminated.
So there is little chance the vaccine will arrive sooner than 18 months. I agree DLR will not be closed that long, but until we have a vaccine I imagine they will have to open in a limited way with new procedures in place. There is no "stopping" the virus now, we can only slow the spread to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. Eventually the shelter in place orders will be lifted, and when that happens the virus will spike again, potentially enough to overwhelm hospitals again and forcing a second wave of shutdowns. Then it is rinse and repeat, with each successive spike being smaller than the one before.
The first (current) spike and second spike will be the biggest and most likely to necessitate serious shutdowns. The question is whether Disney will want to reopen the parks during the period between the first and second spike. That period is likely to last only a few weeks or months, and then very likely the parks will need to be closed down again. Given the costs to spin up the parks for reopening (re-hiring CMs, restocking food, etc.) it may make more sense for them to just stay closed rather than re-open with painful restrictions in place only to close again quickly.
The only way to guarantee that the parks can open and stay open is to wait for a vaccine, but the cost of doing that will be so high that I expect they will try to open sooner, before the vaccine but after the main danger of further social distancing orders (and thus additional closures) has passed. My guess is that will be somewhere between six months and a year.
I understand vaccines are not treatments. As I said above, I understand all of the importance of the testing required by the FDA for vaccines..... I’d literally just watched something on TV about a doctor in North Carolina and her frustrations in dealing with the FDA in regards to the testing kits, and that bled over into my post. I was mainly wondering if the timeline could be sped up. It’s just crazy to think the parks and many other things could be closed while we are waiting for a vaccine.
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