To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

Wait, so you make predictions on training plans? I’m kind of curious how close I came to your predictions, ha ha.

:D The initial guess is the time listed for race day. Then once we go through training, evaluate the weather, and evaluate course elevation. Then we come up with a pacing plan and that's the prediction.

I’m also curious about the brat race.

Nothing special with the race. The Brat Fest is a big festival where they try and sell as many brats as possible. They've just attached a themed 5k/10k to it, but it's just a race and doesn't include actually eating brats during it.

Since I'm bad at keeping track of literally everything (this is only partially true), you can just put me down as predicting NYC marathon qualifying time for all the races.

LOL, no worries. I'll keep track of the data and remind you when the time comes. The NYQ for HM and M are not race equivalent. So for a mile time, which would you prefer to use?

Ok, so let’s say 5:57
I am counting on you, go Billy, go o_O

Thanks!

And that is really what I took of all that text.. See you there!

I'm excited to be back and hopeful the next few months play out as hoped. Also, excited to meet you as well and we're penciled in for several meet-ups.

Congrats on your coaching goals and to the qualifiers! Both are wonderful achievements.

Thanks!

I'm so glad to hear that Steph's eye was caught in time and wish her well in her surgery.

Thanks!

On a related note, I feel incredibly dense now. I had no idea what all the unicorn imagery meant. I thought it was a reference to something Gigi said and I missed it during my running break. D’oh!

:rotfl2:
 


2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest

Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone.

But here's the twist this time around- It's going to be a season long contest. I'll explain more below.

Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. Here are some rules:

1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person per race/TT.
3) Predictions must be in by 48 hours prior to the race or time trial.
4) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 3:45:00, you can guess 3:45:01, or the same time (3:45:00).
5) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
6) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time (unless pre-decided otherwise), then there will be no time recorded for that race.
7) The winner receives a mystery item via email.
8) An important one - To be eligible to win, a person must predict in at least one half marathon race and the 2020 Disney marathon.

I reserve the right to change these rules however I see fit, as after all, this is for fun.

How to play?

Simple explantation

You choose how fast you think I'll run a race when we're about a week out from the race itself. Don't worry I'll remind you.

Longer explantation on how it'll work

-You choose how fast you think I'll run a race when we're about a week out from the race itself.
-Whatever the difference is (negative or positive) from my official time to your prediction is your rolling value from one race to the next.

For example, let's say you predict I will run a 25:00 min 5k. And I run a 26:45 min 5k. Your difference from that race is a -1:45. You predicted my time too fast (thus negative) by 1:45.

As a different example, let's say you predict I will run a 25:00 min 5k. And I run a 24:30 min 5k. Your difference from that race is a +30 seconds. You predicted my time too slow (thus positive) by 30 sec.

The goal is to be the person closest to 0:00 at the end of the season. So if you were -30 seconds on the 5k, then maybe on the next race you'll want to guess 30 seconds slower than you actually think I'll run to try and get back to 0:00.

-You do not have to participate in every race to be eligible to win at the end. You are only required to play in at least one half marathon game and the 2020 Disney Marathon.
-But to incentivize you to predict in more races, for every race you play in above and beyond the required minimum of a HM and the M, you get a bonus 15 seconds. That means if someone plays in 6 total races (HM, M and 4 other races), then they'll get 60 bonus seconds (15*4) off their final time when the game is over. The bonus will not be applied until after the Disney Marathon. The bonus will not hurt you. So if you have 60 second bonus time, and you end with a +/- 45 second final score, then you end with 0:00 as your final adjusted score.

In the event of a tie, then the bonuses will be removed from each of the tied players to the unadjusted final score. Whomever is closer to 0:00, will be the winner. In the event, that after removal of bonuses the unadjusted values are still tied, then it will be decided by some game decided by Gigi at a later point.

Current Race Schedule

This may or may not change based on how the 2019 season plays out.

4/11/2019 - One Mile Time Trial (This is happening)
5/25/2019 - Brat Fest 5k (This is happening)
6/15/2019 - Hot2Trot HM (This is happening)
9/22/2019 - DoLittle 5k or HM (Depends on how training is going up till then, but likely to be the 5k)
10/20/2019 - Haunted Hustle HM (This is happening)
12/1/2019 - Last Call HM (Based on training design, this may be a training run or not occur at all)
1/12/2020 - Disney Marathon

Since to be eligible to win at the end, you're required to play in at least one HM there are a few along the way. The Hot2Trot (June) and Haunted Hustle (October) are the only ones that I feel very confident I will be doing. The DoLittle (September) and Last Call (December) may or may not happen. So keep that in mind if you're strategically selecting races along the way.

This schedule is based on me not getting injured between now and Disney. I'll do what is in my best interest when it comes down to the race. But even if Last Call ends up being a training run, it'll still be eligible for a prediction and thus eligibility purposes.

*****

So first up is the One Mile Time Trial on 4/11/2019. You are free to make a prediction if you'd like. On 4/11/2019, I plan to warm-up for 30 minutes with some strides. I will then start a new lap and run a mile based on my Garmin GPS. The route will likely have about 10 feet of hills in it total. The official time for the Time Trial is whatever that individual split is. I may or may not run a few extra seconds hard before or after the split causing Strava/Garmin to possibly pick up on a faster mile split. But the official time for the purpose of the prediction game is whatever the 1.0 mile split from the Garmin GPS is based on me pressing the lap button. My lifetime fastest mile is a 6:01 set on May 13, 2017 during the Bunny Head 5k Time Trial.

I'll post any predictions for the one miler here:

5:48 - @MissLiss279
5:52 - @FFigawi
5:57 - @flav
6:00 - @Jules76126
6:13 - @lhermiston
So glad to see you back running. I predict 5:54.
 


LOL, no worries. I'll keep track of the data and remind you when the time comes. The NYQ for HM and M are not race equivalent. So for a mile time, which would you prefer to use?

Hmm .... well, since you're running a HM before your M, I'd say your training is probably closer to that, so go with the HM qualifying time mile equivalent.
 
Hmm .... well, since you're running a HM before your M, I'd say your training is probably closer to that, so go with the HM qualifying time mile equivalent.

*Correction* - We're currently in the qualifying window for the 2020 New York Marathon. On that day, I'll be 35 which means I move up in standards. So the NYQ HM is 1:23 instead, or a 5:09 mile equivalent.
 
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Glad to hear Steph is all right. Hopefully the surgery goes well.

Another life long goal has been achieved from the list of 102 goals:
Whether or not it was on your list, you can certainly add "coached someone who vowed he would never run a marathon unless it guaranteed him a set visit to a Star Wars movie to successfully finish a marathon and enjoy it so much that he registered for a second one without said guarantee of a set visit to a Star Wars movie" to that list. If you didn't have such a goal in mind.

Since I'm bad at keeping track of literally everything (this is only partially true), you can just put me down as predicting NYC marathon qualifying time for all the races.
One of these days, he'll meet my prediction of 88.8 miles per hour and everything going into plaid (ala Spaceballs). Give me enough time and I'll see how many other movies I can reference in his time goal.
 
70 Days to Go! (Runaway (U and I)) + Short Power Build - Mid-Vol - Week 7 (Peak) + 80 Day Obsession - Week 2


4/1/19 - M - OFF
4/2/19 - T - 80DO-D8-Total Body Core + Williamson+4 (90 min; 114 TSS)
4/3/19 - W - 80DO-D9-Booty + 60 min Run @ Easy
4/4/19 - R - 80DO-D10-Cardio Core + Kaiser+2 (75 min; 106 TSS)
4/5/19 - F - 80DO-D11-AAA + 60 min Run @ Easy (w/ strides)
4/6/19 - Sa - Xalibu+4 (80 min; 103 TSS) + 80DO-D12-Legs + 60 min Run @ Easy + 0.3 mile Gigi Race!
4/7/19 - Su - Baird Peak (120 min; 139 TSS) + 80DO-D13-Cardio Flow

Total Run Miles - 21.7 miles
Total Run Time - 3:04 hours
Total Run TSS - 202 TSS

Total Biking Time - 6:05 hours
Total Biking TSS - 462 TSS

Total 80DO Time - 5:05 hours
Total 80DO TSS - 59 TSS

Total Training Time - 14:14 hours (PR)
Total TSS - 723 TSS (PR)


Monday

Off! Another 20 days of working out in a row, so it was nice to have a day off. I've only had 3 days off of working out since my Disney trip in mid-February.

Tuesday

Total Body Core

So 3 x 10 of the following series, then back to the top:
Shoulders: Squat Rotating Press, Lateral Bear Crawl with RL, Spider Loops with RL
Back: Bent over Row, One Hand Renegade Row with RL, Boat Pose Lat Pull with RL
Chest: Push-up Leg lift with RL, Chest Fly with Leg Lift with RL, Side V Loop Kicks with RL
Biceps: Staggered Stance Bicep Curl, C-Curve Crunch w/ weights at 90d, Side Knee Plank Pull with RL
Triceps: Tricep Kickbacks, Single-Arm Extension Loop, Tricep push up

Used heavier weights throughout. Mostly 20-25 pound weights.

I was excited to attack peak week of the Short Power Build plan. These looked like some intimidating, but possibly fun bike workouts. Williamson +4 consists of 3 sets of 6 descending-duration/ascending intensity intervals from 115% FTP for 2 minutes to 150% FTP for 30 seconds. Recovery between intervals matches the duration of the preceding interval - work for 2 minutes, rest for 2 minutes. Recoveries between sets of intervals are 3 minutes long and the main set if followed by 30 minutes at 65% FTP. I liked the design of this workout and may try and figure out an analog to it for the running world. It was intimidating on paper, but I actually found it to be quite tolerable.

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Wednesday

Booty day. Phase 1 Booty day is rather easy from a technical standpoint, but some of the moves can sneak up on you.

3x10 of the following series, then back to the top:
Glute Bridge: Glute Bridge, Bridge to Clam, 1st position Bridge
Quad Ped: Straight Leg Lift, Toe Tap across and side, Circles
Side Lying: Toe Tap, Clams, Press Backs
Standing: Standing Hinge, Leg Press Side, Bend Over Press Back
Moving: Squat Side to Side, Duck Walk, Side Lunges

An easy run day, but maybe I took a little faster than easy. I haven't really been paying attention to pace or HR mid-run lately. Just kind of going with the flow based on how I feel that day. So I kind of just let the legs do what they wanted. Ended up with a 7:58 min/mile pace for 7.2 miles (57 min) and HR of 143. Right around LR effort/HR, so still about 9% slower than marathon pace. I was rewarded with an increase in Garmin VO2max to 54. Things just felt different on Tuesday/Wednesday, like I was again turning the corner and becoming fitter. Nice to be back up to an hour of running without issues.

One of the other reasons I probably ran a touch faster was because I had something waiting for me at the end of the run... A Gigi training run. She's been itching to get outside on some training runs, but the weather hasn't been appropriate. But I was finally ready for her to join me. So we took some pics and prepared ourselves for some tom-foolery.

IMG_2575.JPG

I thought I'd just let her keep running until she lost interest. She started off around a 9 min/mile, and I thought this kid better pull back. But she kept it up. After about 0.15 miles, I asked her if she was ready to turn around, but she wanted to run all the way to Heidi's house (0.3 miles). So we kept it up. Chatting all along the way. She told me on future training runs we're going to need to bring some water and snacks. About 0.25 miles into the run, she lost her balance and fell. Looked at her hands and legs, decided she was ok, and wanted to push forward. We made it to Heidi's and then turned around. Saw some neighbors along the route which she felt it was necessary to tell them she was training for a race. The neighbors thought it was a hoot. Wrapped up the 0.66 mile run (much further than I thought we'd go) at a 13 min/mile. I felt like she was ready for Saturday and I felt more confident I could probably sign her up for the Marathon Weekend One Mile Kid's run. It was fun to get to share my hobby with her on a non-race day.

Thursday

Cardio Core! A mixture of jump rope moves, HIT moves, and core moves.

The bike workout was daunting. Kaiser +2 is 3 sets of 3x3-minute VO2max repeats at 118% FTP with 4-minute recoveries between intervals and 5 minutes between sets. So this would be akin to a Daniels I paced run and doing roughly 27 total min at I pace and about 9 total min at VO2max (everything after 2 min of I pace is the real start of the VO2max work). I survived this one, but my cadence did fall late. So I was clearly tired.

Friday

My favorite 80DO day - AAA!

3x10 of the following series, then back to the top:
1 - Upright Row, Bent over Fly, Frog Sliders, Glute Bridge w/Loop
2 - Push-up, Skull Crusher, Weighted ab sit-up, Quad Ped Heel Press
3 - Bent Over Row, Hammer Curl, Knee Tuck, Fire Hydrant

Used 20-25 pound weights throughout. Proud of myself for getting through 25 pound dumbbell hammer curls at 10 reps in all three sets.

Another easy run day. This time, I wasn't messing around. The goal was to go SUPER easy. Because tomorrow would be the highest training load I've ever done on a single training day. A total of 60 min, 6.4 miles, 9:21 min/mile pace, and HR of 131. I also did three very short strides of 22, 37, and 47 seconds all around a 6 min/mile. My Garmin VO2max value dropped to 53.

Saturday

Big day! A combination of three straight workouts plus G's race. In order to finish my workouts in time, I had to wake up at 4am and be ready to start by 4:30am. The bike workout was intimidating, and I knew that trying to do a speed/anaerobic workout shortly after waking up was going to be tough. The TrainerRoad forums warned this type of workout shortly after waking was challenging. Xalibu +4 consists of 7x5-minute race-like efforts beginning with a 30-second surge at 180% FTP. This hard start is followed closely by 8x15/15 VO2max repeats where you'll ride for 15 seconds at 125% FTP and then float for 15 seconds at 88% FTP. Each effort is separated by 5 minutes of recovery. I could tell fairly on this was probably going to be too much for me. My cadence was dropping real quick on some of the early intervals. So I completed the first 4 intervals in full, but by interval #5 I had to drop the intensity down. Then after interval #6, I checked the time and decided I should save a few minutes off the workout to prepare for the 80DO workout.

I jumped off the bike, ran upstairs, threw on my 80DO clothes, grabbed Steph, and ran down to get in the 80DO Legs workout.

3x10 within series
1 - Reverse Lunge, Squats, Curtsy Lunge
2 - Sumo Squat, Front Diagonal Lunge, Twisted Bank Angle Lunge
3 - Single-Leg Good Morning, Hip Hinge, Buddha Squats

Mostly used 20/25 pound weights throughout. My legs felt better after this workout then last week's 80DO legs day. I skipped the cooldown, ran upstairs, threw on my running clothes, and was out the door for the third workout in succession.

Moments into the run, I just decided to go with the flow and let happen whatever wants to happen. Just ride the wave. A 7:58, 7:59, 7:52, 7:58, things were going well. The pace was consistent even though the elevation gain wasn't. So after my drink of water and the beginning of lap 2, I was feeling "it". The feeling that reminds you why we do this in the first place. So I decided to keep the throttle down. Not all out, but definitely not an easy run anymore. I was on my way to G's race now. Then came a 7:24, 7:30, 7:23, and a 7:05 partial lap to the finish. Finished feeling good. Finished with a 55 min run, 7.21 miles, 7:43 min/mile pace, and HR of 145 (so average still under M Tempo). The 7:23 mile was close to M Tempo HR. Ended up getting a new Garmin VO2max at 55.

And then it was time for G's race! Gigi was excited but nervous. She wanted to make sure I carried her water for her in case she got thirsty. She decided that she wanted me to dress up like the Hulk, so Incredible Dad shirt it was. Gigi started out the gate blazing. Starting out at an 8 min/mile pace. For a moment there it was a struggle to keep up given the workouts I had already done that morning. She didn't really let up until she fell half way through. She got up, looked at her hands, and said she was ok. So we got back to it. She slowed some in the back half because she didn't want to fall again. But she finished with a smile on her face and was happy with the experience. We're looking forward to the next race together!

In her own words:

pug:pug: :tiptoe: :worship: :crutches: :tiptoe: :hourglass :thanks: :dancer:

(She saw two pugs, she ran, she fell, she felt injured but wasn't, she ran, she finished, she got her medal and said thank you, and then celebrated the race!)

IMG_2591.JPG

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I was exhausted, tired, but not completely worn out. I finished the day with a Total Stress Score of 192. That's higher than any single training run I've ever done. There's an argument to be made that not all disciplines stress scores are equal. But, a very high training load regardless it was.

Sunday

A super high training load day on Sunday was followed by... another reasonably high training load day! I was excited to see my resting HR over night was only 51. That's a GREAT sign. Throughout the week, my HR has been trending lower. It's clear things are starting to turn and my body is accepting the training better. Here is resting HR data for the last 2.5 years:

Screen Shot 2019-04-07 at 5.15.12 PM.png

This is weekly average resting HR (each blue dot) over time. And an overlay with different training seasons. I felt that 2017 Daniels training was really good for me and my body responded well. And you can tell based on how my restingHR dropped quite a bit. Whereas, my time off (Stress fracture) and the white spot in late 2018 show the restingHR climbing. But enter where we are now, and you can see the HR is trending down again. And even while in peak week, my resting HR during the day was getting down into the 40s.

On paper, this biking workout looked like a doozy! The highest single bike workout yet at a TSS of 139! Baird Peak begins with 3x5-minute Endurance intervals between 60-70% FTP that each conclude with a 10-second sprint between 180-200% FTP. The second part of Baird Peak consists of 75 minutes of Sweet Spot work between 88-94% FTP with short, 3-minute recovery valleys separating each interval. This was like a Daniels T workout (but running maybe 5-10 seconds slower than that pace) with 75 total minutes of T pace in intervals of 20, 18, 16, and 21 min. The cadence wasn't great, but I was able to maintain the workout without adjustments.

Then finished off the week with 80DO Cardio Flow, which again was just like a nice little stretch compared to everything else I've been doing lately.

So matched a PR with 14:14 hours of training, my highest TSS week ever at 723, my highest training day ever at 192, my highest bike workout ever at 139, I lost a pound and feel much fitter, and my Garmin VO2max estimate improved by 2 points to 55. So where does that Garmin VO2max estimate put me? In the past, most of my races end up around VO2max-6. So something like:

Mile - 5:57 (with a 55 itself at 5:24 mile)
5k - 20:15
10k - 42 min
HM- 1:32
M- 3:14-3:40

Looks like most have nailed that mile time window. Time to make theory reality on Friday! And then, the training inverts and the hard training moves to the runs! So excited to getting back into some fun runs!
 
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OK. I've been so far behind on training journals that I'm just trying to jump back in on yours. First, I'm so glad you are running again!!! Second, I love the race pictures of you and G. Adorable. And, third, I'm guessing 6:03 for the contest. :)
 

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