Tracking Cruising Restart: News and Updates

[Cheburashka]

You gotta believe this is a not-so-subtle attempt to keep the non-vaxed off the ship.

Which is a good idea as we're trying to wind down a pandemic.

 

[pjacobi]

A. It's not DeSantis alone, but the Florida Legislature as well.
B. Nothing's been defeated. People aren't required to reveal their vaccination status to cruise. <shrug> That was the idea.

Yes, you may not be *required* to show vaccination status, but *effectively* almost everyone will show vaccination status. The cruise ship got what they wanted.

This is a big defeat for anyone that does not get vaccinated, yet still wants the same privileges as the vaccinated.

The courts have also sided with a Texas hospital this week to require staff to get vaccination or face termination.

Effectively, those without the vaccination are a 2nd class citizen by their refusal.


-Paul

 

[JWelch62]

Yes, you may not be *required* to show vaccination status, but *effectively* almost everyone will show vaccination status. The cruise ship got what they wanted.

Exactly. You don't have to show your status, but if you don't you will be treated as unvaxxed. And you will incur additional costs for a diminished experience. An effective end-run around the restriction.

 

[Cheburashka]

I predict that Disney will resume American cruising for the general public in November. That's after the CDC's Conditional Sailing Order expires. I just don't think DCL is going to want to deal with all of those restrictions sailing out of Florida. That will also give them time to watch the other lines get back to it, and look like they're being the most careful by waiting longest.

I could totally be wrong as it's just a prediction, but that's my best bet about what will actually happen. It's a bit close for comfort for me personally as we have a cruise booked for late December. But I do believe DCL will resume cruising later this fall. It feels like it will never happen but they've got to start sometime. They're not going to want to miss out on those lucrative Thanksgiving, Christmas & New Year's cruises. But I also don't think they're going to start in September.

 

[kathi]

I predict that Disney will resume American cruising for the general public in November. That's after the CDC's Conditional Sailing Order expires. I just don't think DCL is going to want to deal with all of those restrictions sailing out of Florida. That will also give them time to watch the other lines get back to it, and look like they're being the most careful by waiting longest.

I could totally be wrong as it's just a prediction, but that's my best bet about what will actually happen. It's a bit close for comfort for me personally as we have a cruise booked for late December. But I do believe DCL will resume cruising later this fall. It feels like it will never happen but they've got to start sometime. They're not going to want to miss out on those lucrative Thanksgiving, Christmas & New Year's cruises. But I also don't think they're going to start in September.

Well, the Dream is sailing test cruise in a few weeks. I don't think they would be doing that if they didn't plan to start back up again, in some capacity. Maybe it will just be short haul cruises on the Dream? Less likely to have an outbreak onboard a 3 or 4 night cruise. I'm less confident that the Fantasy will sail 7-nights until November (which stinks because I have a late September Western booked). Having unvaccinated cruisers on longer sailings is going to increase the chance that greater than 1.5% will test positive and then (by current requirements) the cruise will be ended.

As much as I want to sail, I really don't want to get stuck on a quarantined cruise that gets turned around. We are vaccinated, so I'm not terribly concerned we will get sick, but paying all the money to get put in lock down...no thank you.

We have a B2B booked for Christmas/New Year, and I agree that they are not going to want to miss out on these cash cows. Hopefully they get things all worked out by Thanksgiving.

 

[Cheburashka]

Well, the Dream is sailing test cruise in a few weeks. I don't think they would be doing that if they didn't plan to start back up again, in some capacity. Maybe it will just be short haul cruises on the Dream?

Yes, I know they're testing the Dream. Personally I think that's just part of their planning process, and not an indication of an imminent return to sailing.

But like I said, it's just my conjecture so I totally could be wrong. We'll see within a few months what happens. Your idea of it just starting with 3 night cruises on the Dream in early fall is also very possible. Definitely more possible than a full return of all the currently scheduled itineraries, which I feel quite sure is not going to happen until at least November.

 

[jrapps]

I predict that Disney will resume American cruising for the general public in November. That's after the CDC's Conditional Sailing Order expires. I just don't think DCL is going to want to deal with all of those restrictions sailing out of Florida. That will also give them time to watch the other lines get back to it, and look like they're being the most careful by waiting longest.

I could totally be wrong as it's just a prediction, but that's my best bet about what will actually happen. It's a bit close for comfort for me personally as we have a cruise booked for late December. But I do believe DCL will resume cruising later this fall. It feels like it will never happen but they've got to start sometime. They're not going to want to miss out on those lucrative Thanksgiving, Christmas & New Year's cruises. But I also don't think they're going to start in September.

I don't think Disney would be going through the expense of a test cruise if they didn't plan on sailing the Dream as quickly as possible. The other thing that leads me to this conclusion was recently when they canceled just two August sailings instead of the entire month of August. That was definitely out of character based off of previous cancellations.

I can see longer cruises on the Fantasy waiting until the November time frame, but right now every indication is that the Dream will resume sometime in August or September.

Of course all any of us can do is conjecture until Disney actually tells us something.

 

[Sykes]

Yes, I know they're testing the Dream. Personally I think that's just part of their planning process, and not an indication of an imminent return to sailing.

Normally I'd agree, but it's really hard for me to imagine them fully crewing the Dream (and it sounds like the Fantasy based on some reports) and then waiting until November before sailing. That said, I have no idea how they will thread thread the needle to create an acceptable guest experience given the current CDC guidelines. Maybe they're hoping that things will relax a bit in the mean time.

The UK sailings in July will be a good test for them because the protocols and restrictions there largely mimic what Disney would need to do on a US sailing under CDC guidelines with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated guests. If the bookings and guest satisfaction are high enough on the UK sailings I don't see why they wouldn't start here as quickly as possible.

 

[Cheburashka]

The courts have also sided with a Texas hospital this week to require staff to get vaccination or face termination.

It's perfectly reasonable to require hospital staff to be vaccinated during a pandemic to avoid spreading the disease even more. That kind of requirement is what hospital staff signed up for: putting patients first.

I'm a public schoolteacher, and was required to teach in person since September or face termination. That's part of what I signed up for: putting students first. It's reasonable, and so is the vaccination requirement for hospital workers.

It's nothing like the government requiring that every citizen get vaccinated. If you're in a very specific & sensitive line of medical work it's required for logical reasons. Nothing arbitrary or authoritarian about that.

 

[Cheburashka]

Normally I'd agree, but it's really hard for me to imagine them fully crewing the Dream (and it sounds like the Fantasy based on some reports) and then waiting until November before sailing. That said, I have no idea how they will thread thread the needle to create an acceptable guest experience given the current CDC guidelines. Maybe they're hoping that things will relax a bit in the mean time.

The UK sailings in July will be a good test for them because the protocols and restrictions there largely mimic what Disney would need to do on a US sailing under CDC guidelines with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated guests. If the bookings and guest satisfaction are high enough on the UK sailings I don't see why they wouldn't start here as quickly as possible.

We'll see. I hope Disney sailing out of Florida does return asap but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

Well, the Dream is sailing test cruise in a few weeks. I don't think they would be doing that if they didn't plan to start back up again, in some capacity. Maybe it will just be short haul cruises on the Dream? Less likely to have an outbreak onboard a 3 or 4 night cruise. I'm less confident that the Fantasy will sail 7-nights until November (which stinks because I have a late September Western booked). Having unvaccinated cruisers on longer sailings is going to increase the chance that greater than 1.5% will test positive and then (by current requirements) the cruise will be ended.

As much as I want to sail, I really don't want to get stuck on a quarantined cruise that gets turned around. We are vaccinated, so I'm not terribly concerned we will get sick, but paying all the money to get put in lock down...no thank you.

We have a B2B booked for Christmas/New Year, and I agree that they are not going to want to miss out on these cash cows. Hopefully they get things all worked out by Thanksgiving.

I agree. I think they will start the 3/4 night cruises on the Dream in August or September and hold off on the 7 night cruises a bit. That's why they chose to do a test cruise with the Dream in a couple weeks.

I don't think we will see the types of quarantined cruises that we saw when this all started. Between vaccinations and testing, I think even the 7 night cruises will be able to keep cases under 1.5% for the duration of the cruise. But nothing longer than 7 nights for the foreseeable future.

And if cases do appear onboard, I think the way Celebrity handled it will be the procedure on all cruiselines. The infected passengers get isolated in their rooms. Through contact tracing, close contacts are identified and isolated until they are cleared with a negative test.

 

[hrhdhd]

There's been a ruling in the Florida vs. CDC case. I have no more free articles from the Orlando Sentinel. Maybe someone can read and summarize for us.
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/bus...0210618-a24nhmi5x5hvlesgvhqdmlcjje-story.html

 

[atricks]

There's been a ruling in the Florida vs. CDC case. I have no more free articles from the Orlando Sentinel. Maybe someone can read and summarize for us.
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/bus...0210618-a24nhmi5x5hvlesgvhqdmlcjje-story.html

Short answer Florida gets their injunction against the Conditional Sail order, making it a recommendation only. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/...ainst-cdc-to-lift-conditional-sail-order.html

 

[JWelch62]

So, as has been mentioned before, does this effectively kill the Alaskan Tourism restoration Act? So, no sailing from Seattle unless a new version is passed?

 

[JWelch62]

Apropos of vax requirements, CA has rolled out a digital vaccine record.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article252208388.html

https://myvaccinerecord.cdph.ca.gov/

 

[brentm77]

Short answer Florida gets their injunction against the Conditional Sail order, making it a recommendation only. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/...ainst-cdc-to-lift-conditional-sail-order.html

Well - I called that case wrong. I didn't see the judge making such a bold decision - you just don't see it all that often and I thought the CDC had positioned itself to make Florida's case mostly moot. I also thought the CDC had a good standing argument and argument that Congress ratified the CDC's action.

I haven't been providing updates due to the new rules here, but have been following the case every few days. I will pull the order and provide more details, but don't expect everything to go away right away. The injunction is stayed until July 18, and it looks like the judge is leaving some room for adjustments to it. It is also just a preliminary injunction - not a final injunction. I will post more shortly.

Hopefully, now that a decision has been made, we can have non-political informational posts about it without a violation of the new rules - but mods, check me if I am wrong.

 

[DisneyKrayzie2]

We'll see. I hope Disney sailing out of Florida does return asap but I'm not holding my breath.

I’m holding mine! I’m pretty optimistic about our August 16th Dream we booked a couple weeks ago when the Aug 2nd was cancelled, used fcc to upgrade to concierge. Concierge host contacted us this week to tell us there was a Castaway Cay cabana available, so we booked that as well

 

[Cheburashka]

I’m holding mine! I’m pretty optimistic about our August 16th Dream we booked a couple weeks ago when the Aug 2nd was cancelled, used fcc to upgrade to concierge. Concierge host contacted us this week to tell us there was a Castaway Cay cabana available, so we booked that as well

I hope it works out for you.

 

[hrhdhd]

The order is available here: http://www.myfloridalegal.com/newsrel.nsf/newsreleases/28B2CEA0BDD9FD63852586F80070B66A

 

[brentm77]

Well - I called that case wrong. I didn't see the judge making such a bold decision - you just don't see it all that often and I thought the CDC had positioned itself to make Florida's case mostly moot. I also thought the CDC had a good standing argument and argument that Congress ratified the CDC's action.

I haven't been providing updates due to the new rules here, but have been following the case every few days. I will pull the order and provide more details, but don't expect everything to go away right away. The injunction is stayed until July 18, and it looks like the judge is leaving some room for adjustments to it. It is also just a preliminary injunction - not a final injunction. I will post more shortly.

Hopefully, now that a decision has been made, we can have non-political informational posts about it without a violation of the new rules - but mods, check me if I am wrong.

Given the groundbreaking nature of this decision on the cruise industry and significant impact this decision will have on cruising, I hope the mods will allow me to post this summary. I will keep this as brief as possible for a 124-page order, for fear that I could violate the new rules, and for not wanting to put too much time into a post that may be removed.

I won't get into the standing arguments, or other legal analysis, other than to say, the court very much agreed with Florida and comments from the cruise line association, that there wasn't actually a reasonable path for saving the summer cruise seasons, and that Florida and its citizens would suffer significant harm, giving Florida standing. The court did not seem to like that the CDC provided the phase 2 guidance on the same day its reply brief was due. The court goes into great history about the federal governments quarantine power and says:

"Never has CDC (or a predecessor) detained a vessel for more than fifteen months; never has CDC implemented a widespread or industry-wide detention of a fleet of vessels in American waters; never has CDC conditioned pratique as extensively and burdensomely as the conditional sailing order; and never has CDC imposed restrictions that have summarily dismissed the effectiveness of state regulation and halted for an extended time an entire multi-billion dollar industry nationwide. In a word, never has CDC implemented measures as extensive, disabling, and exclusive as those under review in this action."

The court finds the CDC exceeded its statuary authority with the COI and says:

"CDC cites no historical precedent in which the federal government detained a fleet of vessels for more than a year and imposed comprehensive and impossibly detailed “technical guidelines” before again permitting a vessel to sail. That is, CDC cites no historical precedent for, in effect, closing an entire industry."

So what is the ordered?

"CDC is PRELIMINARILY ENJOINED from enforcing against a cruise ship arriving in, within, or departing from a port in Florida the conditional sailing order and the later measures (technical guidelines, manuals, and the like). However, the preliminary injunction is STAYED until 12:01 a.m. EDT on JULY 18, 2021, at which time the conditional sailing order and the measures promulgated under the conditional sailing
order will persist as only a non-binding “consideration,” “recommendation” or “guideline,” the same tools used by CDC when addressing the practices in other similarly situated industries, such as airlines, railroads, hotels, casinos, sports venues, buses, subways, and others."

(emphasis mine)

Then the court says the CDC can propose a narrower injunction based on scientific evidence (which it must back up, unlike its generic statement in the CSO) - essentially leaving the door open to giving the CDC the power to provide some regulation that doesn't look like the current requirements that essentially keep the industry closed.

This is a major win for cruise lines, because absent a change on appeal, they will have the ability to sail again very soon, with limited restrictions, and without doing the test sailings first. I don't see the court allowing for those types of hurdles, given its unabashed inclination to open the industry quickly and save the summer cruising season.

P.S. - please remember we are not allowed to discuss politics at all here. This is a summary of the court's reasoning and not an invitation for political debate.