VDH Opening

Are you serious. Disneyland is a massive destination for the west. Washington NorCal Oregon Hawaii arizona Vegas Colorado. There are virtually no options now. Vgc membership is very limited. This will sell out by July 1
I will gladly bet $10 theoretical internet dollars that it is not sold out by July 1 2025. It will sell like crazy in the first 90 days no doubt. Then what?
 
This is getting a lot of laugh emojis but the current value of $2.73 per point per year for 50 years is at least $75, making conservative assumptions about increases, and one could make a compelling case that it’s over $125.

If Disney raises their hotel rates faster than inflation then the tax increases faster than inflation. Anyone want to make a guess as to whether that will happen?
 
This is getting a lot of laugh emojis but the current value of $2.73 per point per year for 50 years is at least $75, making conservative assumptions about increases, and one could make a compelling case that it’s over $125.

If Disney raises their hotel rates faster than inflation then the tax increases faster than inflation. Anyone want to make a guess as to whether that will happen?
I'd still like to know what the tax is 15% of, exactly. What is their process for valuing the stay and if we can make educated guesses how can that be expected to change over time. We have very few datapoints right now: they're valuing each 2023 point at $18.20 and 2024 about 3% higher than that. We have outputs but not a process.

If the taxation is based on rack rate multiplied/divided by some constant, then DVC owners then are also absorbing the cost of rack rate increases, which somewhat defeats the purpose of DVC.

If it's expected to scale slowly as it's anchored in a fixed cost, then maybe the tax isn't so bad in 10 years, proportionally speaking.

I just want to know more about how DVC is calculating it.
 
Sure, but on what basis could you value a VGC point at less than $3.50?

That's just nuts. The only other explanation is that Anaheim is willing to accept much less than 15% of the value each night, and that's...not what governments usually do.
I was thinking that maybe the starting per point valuation was the actual cost per point as in a 100 pt contract at 112 works out to be about $2.25 a point (5000 Pts) With a 3% annual increase it brings you pretty close to the TOT of $0.51 after 14 years.

I agree it is ridiculously low, but $18.25 for VDH seems really high as starting point. If they had used the starting cost pp of $4.60 then the TOT would haven been $0.69, much closer to the prior estimates. I could understand at least if they started at $13.66 ($4.60 + $9.06), still bad at $2.06, but have no idea how they came up with this starting point.

Those of you who bought VGC were the smart ones! The point charts aren’t terrible, but when VGC point charts go to 7 seasons, I think the points will be same or less than VDH. There is really nothing about this resort that appeals to me as a buyer now.
 
I was thinking that maybe the starting per point valuation was the actual cost per point as in a 100 pt contract at 112 works out to be about $2.25 a point (5000 Pts) With a 3% annual increase it brings you pretty close to the TOT of $0.51 after 14 years.

I agree it is ridiculously low, but $18.25 for VDH seems really high as starting point. If they had used the starting cost pp of $4.60 then the TOT would haven been $0.69, much closer to the prior estimates. I could understand at least if they started at $13.66 ($4.60 + $9.06), still bad at $2.06, but have no idea how they came up with this starting point.

Those of you who bought VGC were the smart ones! The point charts aren’t terrible, but when VGC point charts go to 7 seasons, I think the points will be same or less than VDH. There is really nothing about this resort that appeals to me as a buyer now.
The VGC one has increased by 5.5% total since 2020. So about 1.65% per year. Obviously that’s being calculated differently but it’s all we have other than the 2 VDH numbers.
 
The VGC one has increased by 5.5% total since 2020. So about 1.65% per year. Obviously that’s being calculated differently but it’s all we have other than the 2 VDH numbers.
Oh, I was increasing the starting valuation of $2.25 by 3% annually , and then using 15% of that number to reach the TOT cost. The valuation went from $2.25 to $3.40? after 14 years.
 
This has really hit me for a home run. We were going to add-on to join these with our trips to Aulani. Now.. I don't think so.
A one week cost in my preferred (California, late June) travel time for a studio is
VGC - 194 points - Average of $419 per night with resale at $269 per point.
DLH - 167 points - Average of $390 per night with Tax.

It still works out ok in terms of the cost for the room as cash rates are $600+ ex tax, but then I'm lumped with a timeshare that in 30 years no one may want.
I feel the same today as I did the day resale restrictions were first announced for Riviera after saving for 2 years to buy there.
 
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This has really hit me for a home run. We were going to add-on to join these with our trips to Aulani. Now.. I don't think so.
A one week cost in my preferred (California, late June) travel time for a studio is
VGC - 194 points - Average of $419 per night with resale at $269 per point.
DLH - 167 points - Average of $390 per night with Tax.

It still works out ok in terms of the cost for the room as cash rates are $600+ ex tax, but then I'm lumped with a timeshare that in 30 years no one may want.
I feel the same today as I did the day resale restrictions were first announced for Riviera after saving for 2 years to buy there.
That’s the concern. When it’s so unattractive and the resale is even uglier than the original purchase, how do you get rid of it? When it gets to that point I think the loss will make the ToT look like nothing.
 
Those of you who bought VGC were the smart ones! The point charts aren’t terrible, but when VGC point charts go to 7 seasons, I think the points will be same or less than VDH. There is really nothing about this resort that appeals to me as a buyer now.
The decision to buy VGC resale with the cash i put aside for VDH was a hard one. As soon as the location and balcony issue was announced, I had misgivings about this product. I didn't quite realise how different it would be. Today's news is gobsmacking. However, it's still a good time to snap up VGC resale before others feel disappointed and buy up!!
 
As these owners won't pay the tax if they use these points outside of VDH, perhaps a 7 month booking won't be that unique after all. But then in 10 years the restrictions take aim... who knows.
 
As these owners won't pay the tax if they use these points outside of VDH, perhaps a 7 month booking won't be that unique after all. But then in 10 years the restrictions take aim... who knows.
It will be so fascinating to see how hard this is to grab at 7 months. I’m guessing not so bad if you want a studio (and will take preferred)? But I’m not sure.
 
The good news is that pricing is so bonkers that this will never sell. Units will be declared and stay unsold for years and it'll be possible to book it with cheap SAP freeing availability at other resorts.

The bad news is that it will, instead, sell.
Except it can't be booked with cheap (resale) SAPs. It'll be a fascinating scenario to watch unfold over the next several years. I think Disney miscalculated this one, but time will tell. It certainly doesn't help that the "theming" itself has proven to be polarizing and not generally appreciated like the Grand.
 

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