Where are (or were) the crowds?????

[LeeAndRobin]

So we arrived 12/17, expecting HUGE crowds (our first time at WDW for the Christmas season). Crowds were lower or the same in EVERY park compared to our previous trips in the "off season", right up till Christmas day in Epcot. In Epcot, crowds were noticeably SMALLER than on a weekend Food & Wine day from a year ago. Today in MK was very crowded, but not any more crowded than our first honeymoon night on 10/21/2013.

I just don't get it. Everything we've heard about the "amazingly huge crowds" has not turned out to be true. TouringPlans called all the days we were in the parks this trip "10's", but compared to previous trips, they were in NO WAY a 10. And yes, I am including wait times at rides. Many of the rides at MK today were 20-30 minutes. A few rides (the Mountains) were 150, but nothing else.

What gives?

 

[rteetz]

Crowds are down this year. It's been noted in every quarterly update this year that attendance is down. Both Christmas and 4th of July did not have any phased closings. That right there proves attendance is down. We will see how crowded New Years is. 2017 is going to be an interesting year...

 

[BigAlsGal]

I'm going to guess people decided to stay home to avoid the crowds.

 

[rteetz]

I'm going to guess people decided to stay home to avoid the crowds.

That and prices. A one day ticket on Christmas is $124 versus less than that at other times of the year.

 

[BigAlsGal]

That and prices. A one day ticket on Christmas is $124 versus less than that at other times of the year.

Idk. Your credibility is sort of in the crapper.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

As yogi once said: "nobody goes there anymore...the place is too crowded"

 

[dreiwhit]

FWIW, the parks were much busier the week after Thanksgiving than they were when we went in late Feb-early March. I think Disney is doing more to spread the crowds out.

My brother-in-law and his family got back on Christmas Eve from a week at WDW. He said he is never going that week again. He said it was crowded and it seemed like all he did was stand in long lines.

 

[skier_pete]

I don't think it's that people are avoiding crowds. Christmas has been insane for decades and that never stopped anyone before.

I think Disney may finally be reaping the "rewards" of their pricing policies. Higher and higher prices during peak season, we've been saying for years they may reach a tipping point - maybe they finally did.

They already didn't raise prices on their APs in October/November like expected. It will be interesting to see if they hold off the annual ticket price increase come February. If THAT happens, it's a true sign they know they screwed up. (They can't LOWER prices.)

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I don't think it's that people are avoiding crowds. Christmas has been insane for decades and that never stopped anyone before.

I think Disney may finally be reaping the "rewards" of their pricing policies. Higher and higher prices during peak season, we've been saying for years they may reach a tipping point - maybe they finally did.

They already didn't raise prices on their APs in October/November like expected. It will be interesting to see if they hold off the annual ticket price increase come February. If THAT happens, it's a true sign they know they screwed up. (They can't LOWER prices.)

This is the ONLY viable reason. Wdw has never experienced a decline in attendance during an overall economic boom. It never has happened...and never should happen.

The loss of perceived value by a consumer product is a tough hurdle to clear...

And some...ahem...some...have forewarned this.

You increase food...tickets...rooms...by double digit percentage increases over and over again over a short period in time...you do so at your peril.

Pricing should be designed to stay just behind the edge...not fall off it. You never outrun inflation. Never, ever in a place that needs volume and operates 365 days a year.

But do the math...look up the holiday rate for allstars, the food upcharge, the ticket upcharge...then multiply that by 4...then by 7.
Look at the bottomline.

Where are those fools that tell me I've underpaid all these years...and that they would support double the price because of how awesomely, uniquely, magicalfantasfic it is?

...Crickets...

 

[skier_pete]

This is the ONLY viable reason. Wdw has never experienced a decline in attendance during an overall economic boom. It never has happened...and never should happen.

The loss of perceived value by a consumer product is a tough hurdle to clear...

And some...ahem...some...have forewarned this.

You increase food...tickets...rooms...by double digit percentage increases over and over again over a short period in time...you do so at your peril.

Pricing should be designed to stay just behind the edge...not fall off it. You never outrun inflation. Never, ever in a place that needs volume and operates 365 days a year.

But do the math...look up the holiday rate for allstars, the food upcharge, the ticket upcharge...then multiply that by 4...then by 7.
Look at the bottomline.

Where are those fools that tell me I've underpaid all these years...and that they would support double the price because of how awesomely, uniquely, magicalfantasfic it is?

...Crickets...

Well - it doesn't take a genius to figure this out - massive increases year after year will catch up with them - the question really is this: Are Disney execs smart enough to KNOW this? Did they just do these increses to find out WHERE the limits are - and that way once they reach them they know enough to back off? Or are they truly morons that don't grasp this idea that you are pricing out a significant portion of the population at your eventual peril. Will they come up with other excuses for why the attendance drop has occurred ("People are waiting for Star Wars/ Avatar!") and continue to raise prices?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Well - it doesn't take a genius to figure this out - massive increases year after year will catch up with them - the question really is this: Are Disney execs smart enough to KNOW this? Did they just do these increses to find out WHERE the limits are - and that way once they reach them they know enough to back off? Or are they truly morons that don't grasp this idea that you are pricing out a significant portion of the population at your eventual peril. Will they come up with other excuses for why the attendance drop has occurred ("People are waiting for Star Wars/ Avatar!") and continue to raise prices?

The answer is that they Know...but it will not alter the approach one bit.

Because the management is tied to stock price and they stand ready to parachute out at a moments notice. It erodes the longterm value of the stock in favor of short term, bubble type gambling.

They will lay low - perhaps - for a few months and then jack the increases back on, as planned, the minute the street buys an excuse and starts giving them approval on it.

I think the CEOs of public companies should be banned from stock packages...instead incentivized to receive large bonuses based on performance...5 years prior. Then they have no choice but to protect the stock owners with longterm goals.

 

[anthony2k7]

I don't think it's that people are avoiding crowds. Christmas has been insane for decades and that never stopped anyone before.

I think Disney may finally be reaping the "rewards" of their pricing policies. Higher and higher prices during peak season, we've been saying for years they may reach a tipping point - maybe they finally did.

They already didn't raise prices on their APs in October/November like expected. It will be interesting to see if they hold off the annual ticket price increase come February. If THAT happens, it's a true sign they know they screwed up. (They can't LOWER prices.)

No they wont lower prices on the day tickets etc, but they can and hopefully will soon start discounting other ways - on the packages, maybe free dining etc.

Or maybe they wont. Maybe they'll just try to find yet more new revenue streams and up-charge opportunities. Plus maybe they'll do even more cost saving... MK daytime parade the next to go perhaps?

 

[skier_pete]

There's a third argument of course - though I think it unlikely to be true: Crowd control. They up-priced with the intention of lowering the crowds at the busier times of the year. IF you can make the same money from less people it allows for less expenses as well. Not saying I believe this one, but it IS possible.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

No they wont lower prices on the day tickets etc, but they can and hopefully will soon start discounting other ways - on the packages, maybe free dining etc.

Or maybe they wont. Maybe they'll just try to find yet more new revenue streams and up-charge opportunities. Plus maybe they'll do even more cost saving... MK daytime parade the next to go perhaps?

Closing rides and parades are of "minor" savings compared to the money generated by pretty much everything.

When a fool will pay $120-150 for what was $14 not that long ago...is a license to extort money.

What they will do to make a smokescreen for Wall Street is make cuts for the sake of cuts...upcharge everything and a lot for things that used to be standard or slightly new offerings...and say "we can make more while spending less! And can do this forever!" To stock analysts.

And that...is why they need new management.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

There's a third argument of course - though I think it unlikely to be true: Crowd control. They up-priced with the intention of lowering the crowds at the busier times of the year. IF you can make the same money from less people it allows for less expenses as well. Not saying I believe this one, but it IS possible.

Ok...that is a second viable excuse. But they would never "plan" That. They would design to get maxed out gates at ultra high prices or get the normal crowds at less employees.

They wouldnt want less people to get less employees.

...but I'm sure they could spin it as "designed".

 

[mcjaco]

Doom and gloom.

 

[dlavender]

No they wont lower prices on the day tickets etc, but they can and hopefully will soon start discounting other ways - on the packages, maybe free dining etc.

Or maybe they wont. Maybe they'll just try to find yet more new revenue streams and up-charge opportunities. Plus maybe they'll do even more cost saving... MK daytime parade the next to go perhaps?

This is why we are now seeing the barrage of upsells. They know they've met the price ceiling, at least for now. Have to show YOY gains. Used to be able to go to the "well" of increased ticket price. Now they have to rope off the Liberty Bell and make it an "exclusive".

ETA: But they have 6 billion in the bank, so they will be fine for at least a few more years

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Doom and gloom.

What would declining attendance at wdw when the economy doesn't support it represent to TWDC?

the business is to get people there to spend their wad on all that magic. They are resort operators.

I'm not sure what "bad" news would entail if it's not that?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

This is why we are now seeing the barrage of upsells. They know they've met the price ceiling, at least for now. Have to show YOY gains. Used to be able to go to the "well" of increased ticket price. Now they have to rope off the Liberty Bell and make it an "exclusive".

ETA: But they have 6 billion in the bank, so they will be fine for at least a few more years

 

[Madonna3]

We stayed away from the parks, but we're annual passholders, with the exception to the hard ticket events we had purchased three out of the four nights we were there over Christmas. We were in Hollywood Studios on Christmas day and I dare say it was actually tolerable.