Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[RamblingMad]

I was just reading ... hmmm ... here it is. It shows top underlying health condition for covid deaths in 3 hard hit states. Even in Louisiana, obesity was only the 4th most common condition. In New York and New Jersey obesity didn't even rank in the top 4.

Your link shows hypertension and obesity as the top two.

 

[xuxa777]

I wish there were statistics on how much more likely people with hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, obesity, smoking are to develop Covid19, become critical or die, then sorted by age/sex group.

Massachusetts broke it down that way from a link I posted earlier.

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/20/massachusetts-coronavirus-covid-19-deaths
97.5% of deaths had an underlying condition that you listed, split close to 50/50 male/female, but like others stated we don't know how many people already have it, but early testing shows a lot more people have it or had it which would drive the chances of death even lower.

 

[Heather07438]

Massachusetts broke it down that way from a link I posted earlier.

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/20/massachusetts-coronavirus-covid-19-deaths
97.5% of deaths had an underlying condition that you listed, split close to 50/50 male/female, but like others stated we don't know how many people already have it, but early tesdting shows a lot more people have it or had it which would drive the chances of death even lower.

Thank you. That is interesting.

 

[xuxa777]

California is now looking at deaths back into December to see if they see any. Hmmm... wonder what they find

Following an announcement from the Santa Clara County Public Health Department Tuesday that two individuals who posthumously tested positive for COVID-19 died at their homes in February, Newsom said he has instructed coroners around the state to “dig even deeper” and perform autopsies on individuals who may have died from the novel coronavirus as far back as December, 2019.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04...o-december-for-covid-19-death-toll-tops-1350/

 

[Farro]

Article about underlying conditions - htn, obesity and diabetes:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ng-conditions-are-common-large-study-n1189906

 

[Colleen27]

The silver lining, if you will, that I can see about looking at just how many people have had it, even looking at the length of time it's been here, is 1) it could be seen as helping to lower the statistical death rate as more information about just how many people may have had it and self-recovered 2) it could be seen as that many more people had milder or no symptoms.

Of course..part of that is recognizing that we all could have been spreading it around far earlier and at a larger number than originally thought but I'm going for looking at some sort of 'good' viewpoint about increasing knowledge.

It also interacts in an interesting way with the emerging analysis of various strains of the virus. California and the West Coast, unsurprisingly, has primarily seen strains of the virus that originated in Asia, while New York has primarily seen strains that were first identified in Europe (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html). Now there are researchers digging into the differences between the strains and discovering that the European mutations produce higher viral loads, which may make them both more contagious and more deadly than the earlier and less aggressive Asian strains (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...lved-far-deadlier-spread-Europe-New-York.html).

Then why isn't it happening? It may sound easy, but if it was really that easy it wouldn't be happening.

Yeah, it really isn't easy. Nursing home residents need medical care so doctors are in and out. Some of those same doctors are also treating patients in hospitals, so they're not exactly isolated from COVID patients. They also have higher odds than the population as a whole of circumstances that prompt emergency calls to EMS, which creates another point of commonality with medical workers who have contact with virus patients. And they're staffed by low-wage essential workers who are also doing the grocery shopping, putting gas in, and otherwise living their lives when off the clock. No matter how vigilant people try to be about avoiding carrying germs from one place to another, it does happen.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

It also interacts in an interesting way with the emerging analysis of various strains of the virus. California and the West Coast, unsurprisingly, has primarily seen strains of the virus that originated in Asia, while New York has primarily seen strains that were first identified in Europe (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html). Now there are researchers digging into the differences between the strains and discovering that the European mutations produce higher viral loads, which may make them both more contagious and more deadly than the earlier and less aggressive Asian strains (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...lved-far-deadlier-spread-Europe-New-York.html).

My husband and I have been discussing the east coast/Europe connection with interest. Thank you for providing that second link as we hadn't seen that, very interesting.

 

[cobright]

Your link shows hypertension and obesity as the top two.

That's for hospitalizations. We were discussing deaths.

 

[Pea-n-Me]

I haven't read the whole thread, just came in in the last couple of pages, so I apologize if this has already been discussed. But the reasons nursing homes and care facilities have had rampant problems are multifactorial. Here are a couple of good articles that help explain it and what can be done about it:

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-03232020.html
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/a-way-to-manage-surge-in-nursing-home-covid-19-cases/

 

[Brett Wyman]

State of Georgia after seeing this thread....

 

[godisney14]

State of Georgia after seeing this thread....

Unfortunately, the Las Vegas Mayor has the GA governor beat.
This lady is just off the rails. Like bat crazy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/anderson-cooper-las-vegas-mayor-cnn-interview-2020-4

I can’t even understand her train of crazy thought at times.

 

[xuxa777]

More good news , funny how this has not been headline news or have a big fanfare like it’s arrival was.
https://t.co/ZMHV1QVWoQ?amp=1

 

[MillauFr]

No need to worry. We got the best and brightest in charge now. A Labradoodle breeder is in charge of the task force to respond to the virus. With top notch talent like that in charge we have nothing to worry about.

I guess they learned how well FEMA did during Hurricane Katrina response by hiring as their CEO a person whose only experience was judging Arabian Horses.

 

[Notrealname]

Heck of a job Brownie.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

More good news , funny how this has not been headline news or have a big fanfare like it’s arrival was.
https://t.co/ZMHV1QVWoQ?amp=1

I saw this on CNN earlier today. I don’t know why you assume it didn’t make headline news.

 

[CarolAnn856]

More good news , funny how this has not been headline news or have a big fanfare like it’s arrival was.
https://t.co/ZMHV1QVWoQ?amp=1

It’s been all over the news. Another example of stay-at-home orders having a huge impact.

 

[Disney Doll]

I work in what I would consider to be a medium
Sized hospital. Normal # of patients on vents is probably 5-10. Yesterday we had 41. We normally have 1 ICU. We now have 5, created in other areas of the hospital usually used for different things, such as the surgical recovery area. If the pandemic is crying wolf, then it’s crying it awfully loud. Screaming it, as a matter of fact. For folks who don’t live in/near a hot zone, perhaps it seems like crying wolf. For us who do Live in/near a hot zone, I can’t imagine what it would have been like had we not socially distanced and MORE people caught the virus.

Since I’m a medical person, I say “there’s no pill that cures stupid”

As far as info coming out of China, I don’t really trust any of it.

 

[xuxa777]

I work in what I would consider to be a medium
Sized hospital. Normal # of patients on vents is probably 5-10. Yesterday we had 41. We normally have 1 ICU. We now have 5, created in other areas of the hospital usually used for different things, such as the surgical recovery area. If the pandemic is crying wolf, then it’s crying it awfully loud. Screaming it, as a matter of fact. For folks who don’t live in/near a hot zone, perhaps it seems like crying wolf. For us who do Live in/near a hot zone, I can’t imagine what it would have been like had we not socially distanced and MORE people caught the virus.

Since I’m a medical person, I say “there’s no pill that cures stupid”

As far as info coming out of China, I don’t really trust any of it.

This is in the Northeast , Tri state area correct? Everyone completely understand the situation was horrible in the hotspot cities , and especially New York that is not a doubt. We understand so much the whole country was shut down and see it on the news 24/7. But also realize for every one hospital condition you describe there are thousands of hospitals nationwide outside the hotspot that are running way below census and in some cases closing. Outside critical mediacal issues, people are not getting anywhere near any medical care (things like missed cancer diagnoses and heart issues to name a few) unless critical, that will lead to a lot of people dying. This is changing as some states are relaxing. That is not to mention the 30 million people unemployed and the impact that is going to have, another story, another thread.

We should move forward smart, monitor and not take a sledgehammer approach.

 

[xuxa777]

Another study adds to the case that it is very very rare to get infected in an outdoor or casual setting. Of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1
and also the virus was spreading in NYC weeks before the stay at home order

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html
Going to be interesting to see if the stay at home order in NYC, ended up putting thousands of infected people in the most high risk environment, in their homes with their family for a prolonged time. The stay at home order might be responsible for killing more people than it protected. Still to early to determine for sure. Note the outbreaks in NYC were in the areas of multigenrational families living together.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Going to be interesting to see if the stay at home order in NYC, ended up putting thousands of infected people in the most high risk environment, in their homes with their family for a prolonged time. The stay at home order might be responsible for killing more people than it protected. Still to early to determine for sure. Note the outbreaks in NYC were in the areas of multigenrational families living together.