Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[BuckeyeBama]

So around 80,000, bet most don't remember last time flu killed 80000 people in a year, 2018. And the median age was much lower (not like 70+ with covid, 180 babies and children died that year.

Yes, this is worse than the flu for high risk patients and elderly and has impacted individuals personally. but perspective is important

Agree - if the numbers are that low (big IF at this point), then this would be like a very, very bad flu.

 

[godisney14]

I agree - great news. I just wonder if the antibody tests are accurate. Many of the ones being used in the south have been determined to produce positive results from other coronaviruses, including common cold variants.

ETA - I am cautiously optimistic.

The report says that they did a random testing of 3,000 people at grocery stores.

Few takeaways:

• If they’re doing the sampling at grocery’s stores, it is highly likely to be that they’re using similar, or same, inaccurate rapid tests that were used in other places. (I can’t find source information of the study details yet but ELISA tests aren’t sampled in random places).
• Taking samples at grocery stores is not the same as random sampling of the population as news of the study purports. It still ends up being voluntary sampling bias just like all the other antibody studies. If you ever worked at a clinical trial coordinator’s office, this is elementary.
• Due to the biases that I just explained above, IMO 13.9% is likely the cap of a 99%CI
• This part of the announcement was interesting: “‘The Covid-19 pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results.
  What we found so far is that the state-wide number is 13.9% tested positive for having the antibodies,’ he said.” If the test was, for example say 97% accurate, which would be exceptional for a rapid test, then almost all of the positive results from the “rest of the state” could be purely due to false results.

This is not to say that the true proportion of those who had an infection is not likely to be more than what the diagnostic tests show. But, rather that you should continue to take what is reported with a critical mind. And, so, these types of non-random antibody observations should be more digested with a qualitative than a quantitative view until more structured studies are conducted.

If you want to see a more representative antibody study, the San Miguel Co. study is better than anything out there at the moment.
https://sanmiguelco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/56e682135d1d4128bee1a0426aed1d10
It is a vastly MUCH better antibody study for 2 reasons:
1. It is using ELISA tests, not the dubious rapid tests.
2. More than half of the population has been tested so far.

Unfortunately, even with the far greater advantages this study has over all the others, it has not been in the news as much as others since it’s a small county in the middle of nowhere and the study results cannot be as exaggerated as the others, like the grossly misleading headlines of 55x infection from the Stanford study.

 

[godisney14]

Totally agree - I am actually hopeful that the death rate will be closer to .2-.3% when this is all settled from some of the data that I am seeing.

*with social distancing and shutdown

 

[xuxa777]

*with social distancing and shutdown

*opinion and not proven at this time, could be true though

 

[godisney14]

*opinion and not proven at this time, could be true though

?? What the...??

 

[DeniseJH]

?? What the...??

I think they got that idea from the Las Vegas Mayor.

 

[xuxa777]

It has not been proven scientifically that the shutdown (stay at home) had any effect positive or negative, in fact there are multiple studies that the lockdown might have no effect at all. It is assumed based on data, but has not been proven, might never be. Not saying it was right or wrong but since you are strict on details just making that note. I honestly don't care either way just stating the facts.

ETA to add, also stating my opinions where I clearly note it, to prevent any confusion.

 

[mousefanmichelle]

Here are some other things happening in Michigan for those that think we are idiots for protesting. Regular medical help is limited. You can't see your dr or even get a call back for those that have life threatening issues. All non-emergent care has stopped. YOu basicaly have to get hit by a bus and be on deaths door to get medical attention that is not "covid" related. If you are suspected of having covid you are told to self quarantine and that's it unless you can't breath. Grocery stores have started and jobs have started to dictate that you must wear masks and gloves. Do you know that wearing gloves are useless? Wash your dang hands. People are so scared they are wearing masks in their cars, when they are alone. The Gov has people fearing if they leave their houses they are going to die. Deaths that are not covid related are being recorded as covid no matter what. THe hospitals are empty of regular patients. We never even saw the influx they thought we would. We are a big 8 hospital heatlhcare system. Michigans polulation is 9.9mil and in our healthsystem we've had a hare over 500 deaths so far. Minimal. Hospitals are doing huge layoffs and furloughs and even eliminating postions. We lost 2400 jobs system wide this week. This is because outpatient services have halted. No MRI's, No surgeries, No therapy, NOTHING. Our lovely GOV wants to extend this as long as possible to the detriment of her state. Telling us we can't purchase lawn supplies or paint or even a patio chair is - i don't even have a word for it besides assinine. Its gone so far as if people cut their lawn their neighbors are calling the police on them. REALLY???? This is what she wants in my fair opinion. Sorry - hot button topic for us covidiots from the great state of MI.

 

[godisney14]

Here are some other things happening in Michigan for those that think we are idiots for protesting. Regular medical help is limited. You can't see your dr or even get a call back for those that have life threatening issues. All non-emergent care has stopped. YOu basicaly have to get hit by a bus and be on deaths door to get medical attention that is not "covid" related. If you are suspected of having covid you are told to self quarantine and that's it unless you can't breath. Grocery stores have started and jobs have started to dictate that you must wear masks and gloves. Do you know that wearing gloves are useless? Wash your dang hands. People are so scared they are wearing masks in their cars, when they are alone. The Gov has people fearing if they leave their houses they are going to die. Deaths that are not covid related are being recorded as covid no matter what. THe hospitals are empty of regular patients. We never even saw the influx they thought we would. We are a big 8 hospital heatlhcare system. Michigans polulation is 9.9mil and in our healthsystem we've had a hare over 500 deaths so far. Minimal. Hospitals are doing huge layoffs and furloughs and even eliminating postions. We lost 2400 jobs system wide this week. This is because outpatient services have halted. No MRI's, No surgeries, No therapy, NOTHING. Our lovely GOV wants to extend this as long as possible to the detriment of her state. Telling us we can't purchase lawn supplies or paint or even a patio chair is - i don't even have a word for it besides assinine. Its gone so far as if people cut their lawn their neighbors are calling the police on them. REALLY???? This is what she wants in my fair opinion. Sorry - hot button topic for us covidiots from the great state of MI.

Breathe.

Regardless of which side you choose, it’s going to be okay after the hump.

 

[godisney14]

It has not been proven scientifically that the shutdown (stay at home) had any effect positive or negative, in fact there are multiple studies that the lockdown might have no effect at all. It is assumed based on data, but has not been proven, might never be. Not saying it was right or wrong but since you are strict on details just making that note. I honestly don't care either way just stating the facts.

Really? Really??

 

[BuckeyeBama]

It has not been proven scientifically that the shutdown (stay at home) had any effect positive or negative

Wait, do you work for Phillip Morris?

 

[snappy]

I was able to do a telemedicine appointment for one of my annual specialist checkups for thyroid disease. My doctor said I could schedule my annual bloodwork starting next week and my bone density test either in May or June. I see the light at the end of the tunnel. We aren’t venturing out yet except for grocery pick up from Walmart or a quick in store pick up at the mostly empty Sprouts store. We are retired so we spend a lot of time home anyway. The one thorn in my side is being able to visit my 89 year old mom at Senior retirement community. All independent, assisted living, memory care, 24 hour nursing unit residents have been in lockdown fur 6-7 weeks. I really miss visiting her but appreciate that only 2 residents and 5 workers tested positive so far and all have recovered.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Here are some other things happening in Michigan for those that think we are idiots for protesting. Regular medical help is limited. You can't see your dr or even get a call back for those that have life threatening issues. All non-emergent care has stopped. YOu basicaly have to get hit by a bus and be on deaths door to get medical attention that is not "covid" related. If you are suspected of having covid you are told to self quarantine and that's it unless you can't breath. Grocery stores have started and jobs have started to dictate that you must wear masks and gloves. Do you know that wearing gloves are useless? Wash your dang hands. People are so scared they are wearing masks in their cars, when they are alone. The Gov has people fearing if they leave their houses they are going to die. Deaths that are not covid related are being recorded as covid no matter what. THe hospitals are empty of regular patients. We never even saw the influx they thought we would. We are a big 8 hospital heatlhcare system. Michigans polulation is 9.9mil and in our healthsystem we've had a hare over 500 deaths so far. Minimal. Hospitals are doing huge layoffs and furloughs and even eliminating postions. We lost 2400 jobs system wide this week. This is because outpatient services have halted. No MRI's, No surgeries, No therapy, NOTHING. Our lovely GOV wants to extend this as long as possible to the detriment of her state. Telling us we can't purchase lawn supplies or paint or even a patio chair is - i don't even have a word for it besides assinine. Its gone so far as if people cut their lawn their neighbors are calling the police on them. REALLY???? This is what she wants in my fair opinion. Sorry - hot button topic for us covidiots from the great state of MI.

You realize that the people who organized the protests in MI are the crazy anti-vaxxers, right? You know, the folks who believe that the Sandy Hook school bombing in CT was faked?

I get that you are frustrated, but that protest was not about what you think it was about.

 

[TLSnell1981]

It’s being reported that it’s closer to 2.7 million with antibodies in NY.

 

[Farro]

You realize that the people who organized the protests in MI are the crazy anti-vaxxers, right? You know, the folks who believe that the Sandy Hook school bombing in CT was faked?

I get that you are frustrated, but that protest was not about what you think it was about.

Those protests - I agree with you, but wait a couple more months if states stay closed down and see how those protesters and the protests change.

 

[xuxa777]

Those protests - I agree with you, but wait a couple more months if states stay closed down and see how those protesters and the protests change.

You are correct, the governor would be removed , sheriffs not enforce the stay at home order etc. etc. In some states sheriffs are already saying they will not support the order.

 

[Farro]

You are correct, the governor would be removed , sheriffs not enforce the stay at home order etc. etc. In some states sheriffs are already saying they will not support the order.

I'm not talking now.

I'm saying in a couple more months, longer people are out of work, the protest will be made up of more everyday people.

 

[Pea-n-Me]

Speaking of conspiracy theories. Did anyone catch on Reddit today the "medical protest" to the "freedom protesters" being staged for the MSM? I thought it was pretty interesting. Not going to post the video but do look it up. Be careful what you're reading, people!

 

[sacall]

Here are some other things happening in Michigan for those that think we are idiots for protesting. Regular medical help is limited. You can't see your dr or even get a call back for those that have life threatening issues. All non-emergent care has stopped. YOu basicaly have to get hit by a bus and be on deaths door to get medical attention that is not "covid" related. If you are suspected of having covid you are told to self quarantine and that's it unless you can't breath. Grocery stores have started and jobs have started to dictate that you must wear masks and gloves. Do you know that wearing gloves are useless? Wash your dang hands. People are so scared they are wearing masks in their cars, when they are alone. The Gov has people fearing if they leave their houses they are going to die. Deaths that are not covid related are being recorded as covid no matter what. THe hospitals are empty of regular patients. We never even saw the influx they thought we would. We are a big 8 hospital heatlhcare system. Michigans polulation is 9.9mil and in our healthsystem we've had a hare over 500 deaths so far. Minimal. Hospitals are doing huge layoffs and furloughs and even eliminating postions. We lost 2400 jobs system wide this week. This is because outpatient services have halted. No MRI's, No surgeries, No therapy, NOTHING. Our lovely GOV wants to extend this as long as possible to the detriment of her state. Telling us we can't purchase lawn supplies or paint or even a patio chair is - i don't even have a word for it besides assinine. Its gone so far as if people cut their lawn their neighbors are calling the police on them. REALLY???? This is what she wants in my fair opinion. Sorry - hot button topic for us covidiots from the great state of MI.

Really? I live in Michigan too. Two weeks ago, my father-in-law had some weird chest pains. Called his doctor, got an appointment to be seen the next day. Had a stress test on Tuesday. No stint needed, but would have had one on Wednesday if needed. We have all had doctor's appointments through our health portal. Henry Ford hospital has restarted some of their elective surgeries. My brother-in-law had a knee replacement in February, he still goes to PT three times a week with a mask. My daughter continues to with her therapy through our health portal.

The President and CDC stated that you should wear a mask. When we need to go to the grocery store, we wear a mask to help protect the people working in those stores keeping them stocked. They don't need to get sick because we are too self-centered to care about their health or their families health.

Can you please provide the proof that Michigan has only had 500 deaths due to Covid-19? Who is falsifying death certificates? I'm sure the three Detroit hospitals that had to bring in refrigerated trucks to store the dead would disagree. The reasons deaths in Michigan are low is because we flattened the dang curve.

If I hear one more person talk about not being able to get lawn care or flowers, I will scream. It was snowing yesterday, it has been in the low 40s with night time temps in the high 20s. In Michigan, we don't plant our dang flowers until at least May 10 or so to make sure there is no frost. If you need seeds to start something in your house, order them online! I have an appointment with the Greenhouse I always get my flowers from (local Mom and Pop place) for mid May. Gosh, went on their website, made an appointment and I get to have the place all to myself for one hour to pick up my flowers. It is amazing the things people can think of to keep everyone safe and run a business. Who says you can't cut your neighbors lawn and who is calling the police if you do?? No one is and no one has a problem with you cutting your elderly neighbors lawn cause her lawn service can't right now. The reason they don't want lawnscapers or construction workers doing work is because Miss Dig will not come out and mark lines. You can't go digging in the ground unless you know where lines are without someone getting hurt or killed.

Yes, those people protesting in Lansing last week were covidiots. My only hope is they don't pass their sickness around to some poor innocent person who was doing the right thing to keep everyone safe.

 

[sam_gordon]

You realize that the people who organized the protests in MI are the crazy anti-vaxxers, right? You know, the folks who believe that the Sandy Hook school bombing in CT was faked?

I get that you are frustrated, but that protest was not about what you think it was about.

You realize that @mousefanmichelle was actually one of the protesters, right? That she protested the governor's decisions? But you can say "the protest was not what you think it was about"?

I'm willing to give her(?) the benefit of the doubt and say she knows what she was protesting against.