Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[godisney14]

Another study adds to the case that it is very very rare to get infected in an outdoor or casual setting. Of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1
and also the virus was spreading in NYC weeks before the stay at home order

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html
Going to be interesting to see if the stay at home order in NYC, ended up putting thousands of infected people in the most high risk environment, in their homes with their family for a prolonged time. The stay at home order might be responsible for killing more people than it protected. Still to early to determine for sure. Note the outbreaks in NYC were in the areas of multigenrational families living together.

Mayor Goodman, aren’t most workplaces in an indoor setting?
Some workplaces even have people sitting and standing closer for longer duration than one would at home.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

Going to be interesting to see if the stay at home order in NYC, ended up putting thousands of infected people in the most high risk environment, in their homes with their family for a prolonged time. The stay at home order might be responsible for killing more people than it protected. Still to early to determine for sure. Note the outbreaks in NYC were in the areas of multigenrational families living together.

??
Don’t understand logic here.
Makes no sense at all.
Yes would it have been better to be in an isolated location - by all means and many did all they could to do this even in house.
Did family members get - of course
But they and others would have gotten from the infected If stay at home was not installed.

 

[fatmanatee]

Going to be interesting to see if the stay at home order in NYC, ended up putting thousands of infected people in the most high risk environment, in their homes with their family for a prolonged time. The stay at home order might be responsible for killing more people than it protected. Still to early to determine for sure. Note the outbreaks in NYC were in the areas of multigenrational families living together.

These homes don't stop being multigenerational if you send people to work.

 

[RamblingMad]

Another study adds to the case that it is very very rare to get infected in an outdoor or casual setting. Of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1
and also the virus was spreading in NYC weeks before the stay at home order

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html
Going to be interesting to see if the stay at home order in NYC, ended up putting thousands of infected people in the most high risk environment, in their homes with their family for a prolonged time. The stay at home order might be responsible for killing more people than it protected. Still to early to determine for sure. Note the outbreaks in NYC were in the areas of multigenrational families living together.

The problem isn’t outdoor recreation. It’s how you get there and whether or not the nearby town can handle an outbreak and search and rescue. A lot of outdoor rec areas are near small rural communities that don’t have the healthcare resources to handle an outbreak.And do you really want to worry about using SARs now?

I’m in the desert now. And we have a lot of mountain rescues here in the summer months for day hikers. Best to keep those trails closed for now.

 

[auroralark]

Going to be interesting to see if the stay at home order in NYC, ended up putting thousands of infected people in the most high risk environment, in their homes with their family for a prolonged time. The stay at home order might be responsible for killing more people than it protected. Still to early to determine for sure. Note the outbreaks in NYC were in the areas of multigenrational families living together.

Are you kidding me? Where do those people go when they're not at work? Still at home. My uncle and grandparents live in the NYC area but NOT NYC. He had an essential job, got it, and passed it to them. So despite not being at home "a prolonged period of time" with them, they got sick anyway. My grandmother is now in the hospital.

I have a lot more to say, but I'm shaking too much with rage.

 

[xuxa777]

Great new coming out of New York from antibody tests, around 20% showing positive, hotspots up to 30-40%, going to make opening up a lot easier. "Death rate may be approximately 0.5% of people infected of which 95% are elderly or at risk so for everyone else its more like .025%"- Gov. Coumo

This is from the Gov. Coumo's press conference currently on.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Great new coming out of New York from antibody tests, around 20% showing positive, hotspots up to 30-40%, going to make opening up a lot easier. "Death rate may be approximately 0.5% of people infected of which 95% are elderly or at risk so for everyone else its more like .025%"- Gov. Coumo

This is from the Gov. Coumo's press conference currently on.

I agree - great news. I just wonder if the antibody tests are accurate. Many of the ones being used in the south have been determined to produce positive results from other coronaviruses, including common cold variants.

ETA - I am cautiously optimistic.

 

[xuxa777]

The data shows that close to 2 million people in NYC would test positive. Makes lifting the stay at home a lot easier.

 

[kdonnel]

"Death rate may be approximately 0.5% of people infected

That compared to the initial numbers of 5% to 10% are why I am asking if this will be the pandemic that cried wolf.

10 to 20x less deadly is significant! Some studies have shown the rate may be even lower.

Not all of that difference can be attributed to social distancing. Some for sure as there is a distinct possibility that people will be saved later that would not have been if the hospitals remained overwhelmed. But some, and this amount will be debated forever, is because it is just not as deadly as first thought.

 

[PolyTigger]

Are you kidding me? Where do those people go when they're not at work? Still at home. My uncle and grandparents live in the NYC area but NOT NYC. He had an essential job, got it, and passed it to them. So despite not being at home "a prolonged period of time" with them, they got sick anyway. My grandmother is now in the hospital.

I have a lot more to say, but I'm shaking too much with rage.

Could not agree with you more!

 

[BuckeyeBama]

That compared to the initial numbers of 5% to 10% are why I am asking if this will be the pandemic that cried wolf.

If it is only .5%, that is still 5x the death rate of the flu. Still not crying wolf as the flu kills ~50k people every year, so that would be 250k dead.

But I think that we will all be very happy to learn that the death rate is that low, if it proves to be the case.

 

[kdonnel]

If it is only .5%, that is still 5x the death rate of the flu. Still not crying wolf as the flu kills ~50k people every year, so that would be 250k dead.

But I think that we will all be very happy to learn that the death rate is that low, if it proves to be the case.

I am not comparing it to the flu.

I am comparing covid-19 to covid-19.

I was terrified when they said the death rate was 10%. Not so much at .5% or less.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I was terrified when they said the death rate was 10%. Not so much at .5% or less.

250 thousand dead is not a big deal? Because crying wolf means that the threat was not real. This is a very real threat.

But, again, 250k dead is a lot better than 2MM dead.

 

[xuxa777]

If it is only .5%, that is still 5x the death rate of the flu. Still not crying wolf as the flu kills ~50k people every year, so that would be 250k dead.

But I think that we will all be very happy to learn that the death rate is that low, if it proves to be the case.

Also keep in mind those numbers are from one of the leading hotspots

Yes definitely worse than the regular flu, but with the majority of deaths in the 80+ range, probably closer the same or even less dangerous for those less than 65. This will make it easier to combat it, protect a smaller part of the population.

 

[fatmanatee]

That compared to the initial numbers of 5% to 10% are why I am asking if this will be the pandemic that cried wolf.

10 to 20x less deadly is significant! Some studies have shown the rate may be even lower.

Not all of that difference can be attributed to social distancing. Some for sure as there is a distinct possibility that people will be saved later that would not have been if the hospitals remained overwhelmed. But some, and this amount will be debated forever, is because it is just not as deadly as first thought.

I've never been under the impression that the fatality rate would be that high. Based on what we were seeing out of other countries it seemed like 0.5-1.0% was the right number, with the range dependent on the age of a given country's population. Remember, the whole estimate of two million dead was based on what might happen if the entire country got it and we didn't do anything to prevent it.

 

[xuxa777]

I am not comparing it to the flu.

I am comparing covid-19 to covid-19.

I was terrified when they said the death rate was 10%. Not so much at .5% or less.

The hardest part, and even shown is this thread is the fear created by the 10% number. Overcoming that will be a much much bigger threat than covid over the next few months.

 

[kdonnel]

250 thousand dead is not a big deal? Because crying wolf means that the threat was not real. This is a very real threat.

But, again, 250k dead is a lot better than 2MM dead.

Didn't say it was not a big deal.

To me, .5% is not nearly as terrifying as 10% or even 5% especially knowing also that I am not in a high risk group by age or comorbidity conditions.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Didn't say it was not a big deal.

To me, .5% is not nearly as terrifying as 10% or even 5%.

Totally agree - I am actually hopeful that the death rate will be closer to .2-.3% when this is all settled from some of the data that I am seeing.

 

[xuxa777]

Totally agree - I am actually hopeful that the death rate will be closer to .2-.3% when this is all settled from some of the data that I am seeing.

So around 80,000, bet most don't remember last time flu killed 80000 people in a year, 2018. And the median age was much lower (not like 70+ with covid, 180 babies and children died that year.

Yes, this is worse than the flu for high risk patients and elderly and has impacted individuals personally. but perspective is important

 

[mousefanmichelle]

I think the Covidiots protesting in Michigan won't comply. Those hitting the beach and failing to comply won't either. You can't fix stupid. In some of the videos from the beach I did see some people complying. But all too many were not. By the way, 40,000 dead in the U.S. alone would refute your characterization of "crying wolf. "

Well I am a Covidiot from Michigan - thanks for that. If you knew what was going on here you wuold be appalled. Our Gov has over stepped her reach. People are protesting because she is limiting what you can and cannot purchase during this time. Go to the party store and get your lottery tickets and alcohol but you can't buy a lawn chair or a gallon of paint. You can't buy potting mix but you can buy swim goggles. You can't go to the cemetary and visit a loved ones grave. You can't buy child car seats at Walmart. So much more. It was a peaceful protest despite what you saw on TV. People remained in their cars except those that are extremist groups (MI Militia) and followed her social distance guidelines. We can go out on a boat but it can't have a motor - these things are insane and she is killing her state. So please don't call us Covidiots when you really don't know what is happening here unless you live here.