99% of the public will ever notice these cuts.
Maybe, but more than 1% of DISNEY'S customers notice the cuts.
Only us fanatics (like us) will and even most of us will say our enjoyment and value from our trips are not affected.
It doesn't take a fanatice to notice shorter hours, closed attractions, decreased restaurant hours, canceled parades, reduced services, etc.
Theme Parks will make DIS large amounts of cash this summer.
No doubt. Even with all the blame Disney has heaped on theme parks for the company's poor performance, the theme parks are still the company's biggest producer of operating income.
Discounted offers to stay on site will increase attendence.
Probably, but as management supporters have said in the past when agreeing with Disney's lack of discounting, this also reduces margins, unless services are cut further.
Movies coming out will do well as a whole. Television Ratings will continue to increase.
That's great that you have crystal ball that tells you such things... every movie and TV executive would pay you large sums of money for it. That said, the May sweeps numbers I saw showed ABC down 3% in the 18-49 demographic in '03 vs. '02.
Economic recovery will do wonders for consumer confidence which will drive DIS stock price to a good level.
I certainly hope so. But that doesn't change the fact that Disney has most definitely not positioned itself as well as it could. For example, NBC and Fox would seem to be much better positioned to take advantage of increased ad revenue than ABC.
All that said, $25 is not an unrealistic target. Most price targets I've seen have it in the $25-$28 range. $25 would put it back to where it was in early '02, and roughly to where it was pre 9/11.
I'm most definitely not in the "Disney stock is a bad investment" crowd. Certainly they will benefit from an improved economic climate. But they could be doing better. ABC never should have become a 4th place network, the park attendance has dropped farther than what can be explained by the economy, they have made bad strategic decisions with respect to animation, and the retail stores are a mess.