Ya Hooo, DIS breaks $20.00

[daannzzz]

Originally posted by Golter
When Did Disney promise beastly Kingdom? All I heard were rumors.

I don't know if it is a promise but I think a Dragon in the logo of the AK is more than a rumor.

 

[EUROPA]

Originally posted by KNWVIKING
"It's like Disney has been shot in the liver...sure its not dying today or tomorrow but if they don't do something about it they are going to bleed to death."

LMAO... How/why did you pick liver ?

The Liver bleeds a lot and its a slow painful death compared to the head or the heart. Sometimes when people are shot in the liver its hard to find the wound.

 

[wdw4us2]

Since this discussion was originally about the stock price, why hasn't anyone mentioned what the price was when it split?

I can't remember when it split (approx. 5 years ago), but after the split it was selling for $35.00 per share. It hasn't been anywhere near that amount since.

As for other money losing ventures, I noticed that no one mentioned the debacle known as Disney's California Adventure. I believe at some point, it was shown that Disney made more money when California Adventure was a parking lot. This was due to the fact that Disney was forced to reduce the admission price just to get people into the Park.

P.S. Other closed/not replaced attractions include the Main Street Penny Arcade (replaced with yet another merchandising location), Davy Crockett's Canoes, Diamond Horseshoe Review, Superstar Television (MGM), Millennium Showplace and the reduction in The Living Seas.

 

[BRERALEX]

The Lion King(MK) - replaced by Philharmagic

when did philharmagic open?

those 'minor' attractions add up to the whole grand scheme of things, the whole experience. COP opened time to time does nothing for the guy who visites in the offseason every year cause he has to. same with timekeeper.

Its a not even close, more has been added than taken away. And what replaced old attractions are far better than what was there.

easy killer with the blanketed statement. ALMOST every new addition has been better. JIYO sucks @$$.

Philharmagic (Coming 03)

we really have yet to see, it may be 04.

Diamond horseshoe saloon is closed.

And lets not start on hours or eticket, since thats a thread that has been already done time and time again.

OH YEAH LETS NOT FORGET THE NUMBER ONE THING MISSING.........................................MY CHICKEN FINGER!!!

 

[Golter]

It has been higher, (so was entire market), I'm not disputing the fact that DIS has been outperformed by the market. (past three years DIS down 50% - S&P 500 down about 35) I'm saying it will return and has bottomed out. My whole arguement is this, DIS has had struggles (Some in their control, Some out of their control) but they have put themselves in a position to grow and prosper, in all market segments.

 

[EUROPA]

Originally posted by Golter
but they have put themselves in a position to grow and prosper, in all market segments.

How?

 

[Golter]

They did what all companies do when things slow down, they cut expenses, they put large expenditures on hold, and have tried to refocus on core products. You cannot please everyone, 99% of the public will ever notice these cuts. Only us fanatics (like us) will and even most of us will say our enjoyment and value from our trips are not affected.

Theme Parks will make DIS large amounts of cash this summer. Discounted offers to stay on site will increase attendence. Movies coming out will do well as a whole. Television Ratings will continue to increase. Economic recovery will do wonders for consumer confidence which will drive DIS stock price to a good level.

I'll put a 4 day hopper up that DIS hits 25 by years end, that would be a 60% increase from January 03 ($15.50~)

PS It just hit $22.45 a 12% increase since this thread started.

 

[blackshirt]

The theme parks will produce a lot of cash. They always do which is why it is distressing that they are asked to support the failing parts of the company. The stock price is benefiting from the general rise in media stocks. Heck even barely viable stocks like Vivendi are doing well the last few days
My problem with Disney's future lies with its management. They just don't inspire any confidence. Every quarter estimates are revised downward. The economy is blamed, terrorism is blamed. The "Walmart consumer" is blamed for not appreciating the company's products. Look at what the last two "investments" in theme parks have produced. DCA is regarded as so broken that the whole concept is in question. AK is showing lackluster attendence although I can believe it has potential that can be realized with a large investment in money and talent.
But Disney's financial condition continues to deteriorate. Their bond rating is only barely above junk status despite the incredible cash flow from the parks. Five billion dollars for a cable network cancelled out how many strong years in the 90's?

Anyway, I don't believe the talent exists in management to turn it around. They have talent in one area, cutting costs. Eisner likes to say things like "I feel we could have another gusher" and "the last few years were ones of investment, the next few will be ones of reaping the rewards" He is either delusional or lying through his teeth. Heck, its possible the stock could hit $25 at some time this year, its more likely IMO that it will continue to stagnate in the mid to high teens.

 

[raidermatt]

99% of the public will ever notice these cuts.

Maybe, but more than 1% of DISNEY'S customers notice the cuts.

Only us fanatics (like us) will and even most of us will say our enjoyment and value from our trips are not affected.

It doesn't take a fanatice to notice shorter hours, closed attractions, decreased restaurant hours, canceled parades, reduced services, etc.

Theme Parks will make DIS large amounts of cash this summer.

No doubt. Even with all the blame Disney has heaped on theme parks for the company's poor performance, the theme parks are still the company's biggest producer of operating income.

Discounted offers to stay on site will increase attendence.

Probably, but as management supporters have said in the past when agreeing with Disney's lack of discounting, this also reduces margins, unless services are cut further.

Movies coming out will do well as a whole. Television Ratings will continue to increase.

That's great that you have crystal ball that tells you such things... every movie and TV executive would pay you large sums of money for it. That said, the May sweeps numbers I saw showed ABC down 3% in the 18-49 demographic in '03 vs. '02.

Economic recovery will do wonders for consumer confidence which will drive DIS stock price to a good level.

I certainly hope so. But that doesn't change the fact that Disney has most definitely not positioned itself as well as it could. For example, NBC and Fox would seem to be much better positioned to take advantage of increased ad revenue than ABC.

All that said, $25 is not an unrealistic target. Most price targets I've seen have it in the $25-$28 range. $25 would put it back to where it was in early '02, and roughly to where it was pre 9/11.

I'm most definitely not in the "Disney stock is a bad investment" crowd. Certainly they will benefit from an improved economic climate. But they could be doing better. ABC never should have become a 4th place network, the park attendance has dropped farther than what can be explained by the economy, they have made bad strategic decisions with respect to animation, and the retail stores are a mess.

 

[Golter]

I give up, its been nice debating this. I will pull this thread in January and we can start another lively debate. I hope we will all be presently surprised with the performance of the company.

 

[KNWVIKING]

This is way OT, but since it was my topic I'll take a little liberty.

I believe we can all accept that our Disney habits could be placed in the "Extreme" catagory. I personally will be in WDW at least three times a year. We are the exception. Let's back up to the early & mid 90's. Our country is just out of a long recession,economy is up,market booming, pension funds overflowing, let the good times roll, hey lets finally take that Disney trip we always talked about. The masses come,record attendance,everything is great. Then people go home. The masses aren't biten with our Disney obsession. "Been there,done that,SOMEDAY I'll go back". Park attendance drops. For no other reason then the fact that it simply reached it's peek. Nothing continues to climb forever. Maybe I'm totally off base. But I've had family members who aren't fanatics and when they go to WDW I never hear complaints about hours or chicken fingers. They flat out loved the trip and can't wait till the kids are a few years older so they can go back again.

 

[Golter]

I said I was done, but that was well said.

 

[crusader]

Disney's lack of discounting, this also reduces margins, unless services are cut further.

Not necessarily - but I see your point, here's why:

If X is priced at 2000.00 and you have a margin of 50% you will pocket 1000.00 each time someone buys.

If only 3 people buy you have 3000.00

If you lower the price to 1500.00 and you now pocket 500.00 each time someone buys and 6 people buy you have 3000.00

You have not cut one cost here but your cash flow is the same.

Now before you post the blanket standard reply of: "but it will cost more to handle more people" - consider first the level at which there is a fixed cost to operate the parks for a set number of attendees no matter whether you have 2000 or 20,000. If the attendance has dropped well below the breakeven margin the only way to improve things is to get more participants in the door. The best way to accomplish this is through a dynamic promotional campaign with great offers. That is what "management" is doing.

"Management" is also building another mountain coaster - in AK; unveiling a ride in Epcot which from the looks and sounds of it could very well attract a great deal of attention; looking carefully at the potential to expand their media holdings with what's recently being lobbyied in Washington these days. (for those paying close attention to the hearings); considering many other projects as well -

That's what we know. What we don't see is how ABC will get back on top with the current Fall lineup. (it may not from the looks of things but it may not have to this year in order to move the company forward). What we don't see is how DCA will turnaround given the fact that young adults view it as a "$h!+" park in comparison to the competition. What we don't see is how Disney and Pixar will determine their future association and how Disney will integrate CGI.

We can't see what we aren't privy to for so many reasons it's pointless to consider. All I hear are complaints about what's missing from the past and why the future changes aren't remotely comparable in maintaining the philosophy imbedded in our souls from the founder of this organization.

I'm telling you this: what you feel from Disney is personal. It is subjective. It is not universally understood or recognized because every individual given an equal set of circumstances has a different perspective based on their experience. (I believe Mr. Kidds spoke of this a while back.)

It's what makes us all appreciate one another here. I certainly share this.