Marathon Weekend 2019

[lhermiston]

Len Testa says via twitter that original estimates “were too low in general. AK models in particular by a couple points.”

They won’t update their models until the end of the month.

 

[PrincessV]

I believe this is the new model Len has discussed where they account for the possibility that Disney isn’t staffing the park properly. Disney did that last year and January overall felt way more crowded than it should’ve been.

This. I've been a WDW regular for 25 years and can attest that a low-staff, low-ride-capacity day with low attendance can feel far "busier" and more crowded than July 4th when it's staffed and operating at full capacity. Low staffing + low-ride-capacity = longer wait times, despite likely having fewer Guests in the park. I've also noticed that since the advent of FP, and even more with FP+, parks often feel more crowded because there are more people milling around/walking/shopping that were previously spending that time in lines.

 

[camaker]

I have a really hard time believing these crowd levels. I can't imagine things being as bad as last year's crowds which were much closer to New Year's in combination with a much closer to sold out race weekend. From the explanation in the blog, it sounds like they're not even looking at true crowd levels. It seems like the crowd levels are more like a "real feel" estimate to use a weather analogy due to lower park staffing levels.

What surprises me right now is that we haven't had the normal Disney Parks Blog post introducing the merchandise for Marathon Weekend yet. Let's see it!

On a sour note, DD20 went out for a training run yesterday, stepped on a root and sprained her ankle. It's just a Grade 1 and I think she'll be able to run, but it's not going to make for a fun marathon for her.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

What surprises me right now is that we haven't had the normal Disney Parks Blog post introducing the merchandise for Marathon Weekend yet. Let's see it!

I keep waiting for this too!

On a sour note, DD20 went out for a training run yesterday, stepped on a root and sprained her ankle. It's just a Grade 1 and I think she'll be able to run, but it's not going to make for a fun marathon for her.

Oh no! Hopefully she heals quickly!

 

[lhermiston]

Testa tweeted back. He said the AK numbers seem “reasonable” and he doesn’t expect anything below a 5 all week.

5 is a big difference from 9, though.

So, your guess is as good as mine.

 

[BigEeyore]

https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/blog/2018/04/what-is-memory-maker-one-day-and-where-can-i-buy-it/

Found this article regarding the one day memory maker - really thinking about doing this for the marathon. Cost is around $70, but if you want to download more than 4 photos it makes sense. I really hate getting my phone out at every character stop, and there is always that one great race photo that I want to have! Going to see if my run buddy will split it with me.

 

[rteetz]

Possible further evidence of something not quite right:

I’m tracking some dates in February for a coworker and there were significant jumps there, as well. AK went from 6 to 10 (the Friday before Presidents’ Day, but a 10??)

Epcot goes from 1 to 6 one day, AK goes from 1 to 5 another day.

This feels like Touring Plans started drifting into the right ditch (too low for predictions), overcorrected the car and wound up in the left ditch (too high).

Fingers crossed some of these leaps average out. I’ll be perfectly fine with 5-7 for crowd levels.

Yeah the entirety of Early 2019 had a jump.

 

[rteetz]

I have a really hard time believing these crowd levels. I can't imagine things being as bad as last year's crowds which were much closer to New Year's in combination with a much closer to sold out race weekend. From the explanation in the blog, it sounds like they're not even looking at true crowd levels. It seems like the crowd levels are more like a "real feel" estimate to use a weather analogy due to lower park staffing levels.

What surprises me right now is that we haven't had the normal Disney Parks Blog post introducing the merchandise for Marathon Weekend yet. Let's see it!

On a sour note, DD20 went out for a training run yesterday, stepped on a root and sprained her ankle. It's just a Grade 1 and I think she'll be able to run, but it's not going to make for a fun marathon for her.

They were late with merch last year as well.

 

[lhermiston]

@rteetz and I are grilling Testa via Twitter on behalf of the runDisney All Stars.

 

[ZellyB]

@rteetz and I are grilling Testa via Twitter on behalf of the runDisney All Stars.

Our Twitter ambassadors. Off to read.

 

[rteetz]

@rteetz and I are grilling Testa via Twitter on behalf of the runDisney All Stars.

Yeah I’m really interested in regards to marathon weekend because of the expected lower runner crowds.

 

[ZellyB]

The blog post seems to be mostly banking on Disney cutting back on staffing and ride capacity. A reasonable historical assumption based on what they did this past year over all. Doesn't mean they will do it again, but given how much Disney seems to be cutting back on things to maximize profits, it's a reasonable assumption.

 

[rteetz]

The blog post seems to be mostly banking on Disney cutting back on staffing and ride capacity. A reasonable historical assumption based on what they did this past year over all. Doesn't mean they will do it again, but given how much Disney seems to be cutting back on things to maximize profits, it's a reasonable assumption.

Yep. Though I’m still wondering how overall crowd levels will be because of the lower than expected runner crowd coming.

 

[TheHamm]

@rteetz and I are grilling Testa via Twitter on behalf of the runDisney All Stars.

As someone who does not tweet, I was amused to see teetz' link.
Even with understaffing, it cannot be a 9 or 10.
I found Testa's comment true that the number were artificially low but he also did not say their new numbers were spot on. This seemed similar to the type of phrasing we would use at work when we knew data was still off, but could not fix it in time for a meeting. There is a lot of wiggle room between their current numbers and 'not below 5.'

 

[ZellyB]

Yep. Though I’m still wondering how overall crowd levels will be because of the lower than expected runner crowd coming.

I'm still wagering that they are overshooting. Prior predictions were definitely too low, but I'm figuring that they are relying on historical data from last year at this time but also figuring on the historical bump from the marathon. That said given that we know race registrations are way down, I suspect their calculations will be off somewhat.

 

[lhermiston]

Yep. Though I’m still wondering how overall crowd levels will be because of the lower than expected runner crowd coming.

I’m waiting to see if/how these changes will be reflected in the actual touring plans for those parks/days.

As someone who does not tweet, I was amused to see teetz' link.
Even with understaffing, it cannot be a 9 or 10.
I found Testa's comment true that the number were artificially low but he also did not say their new numbers were spot on. This seemed similar to the type of phrasing we would use at work when we knew data was still off, but could not fix it in time for a meeting. There is a lot of wiggle room between their current numbers and 'not below 5.'

Agreed.

 

[ZellyB]

As someone who does not tweet, I was amused to see teetz' link.
Even with understaffing, it cannot be a 9 or 10.
I found Testa's comment true that the number were artificially low but he also did not say their new numbers were spot on. This seemed similar to the type of phrasing we would use at work when we knew data was still off, but could not fix it in time for a meeting. There is a lot of wiggle room between their current numbers and 'not below 5.'

Right. It sounds like they've redone their model and tried to adjust for reduced staffing, but they are somewhat just taking a guess at it right now and likely erred on the conservative (busier) side. They will likely be able to use what happens in January and February to better tweak their algorithm to get it more accurate.

 

[rteetz]

I'm still wagering that they are overshooting. Prior predictions were definitely too low, but I'm figuring that they are relying on historical data from last year at this time but also figuring on the historical bump from the marathon. That said given that we know race registrations are way down, I suspect their calculations will be off somewhat.

Yep. I would probably expect AK on 1/9 to be more like a 6-7 rather than a 9.

 

[lhermiston]

Yep. I would probably expect AK on 1/9 to be more like a 6-7 rather than a 9.

Here’s hoping.

I need more reasonable crowds for MK on Saturday, too.

 

[Bree]

I have a really hard time believing these crowd levels. I can't imagine things being as bad as last year's crowds which were much closer to New Year's in combination with a much closer to sold out race weekend. From the explanation in the blog, it sounds like they're not even looking at true crowd levels. It seems like the crowd levels are more like a "real feel" estimate to use a weather analogy due to lower park staffing levels.

What surprises me right now is that we haven't had the normal Disney Parks Blog post introducing the merchandise for Marathon Weekend yet. Let's see it!

On a sour note, DD20 went out for a training run yesterday, stepped on a root and sprained her ankle. It's just a Grade 1 and I think she'll be able to run, but it's not going to make for a fun marathon for her.

Oh no! I hope she is okay for the race!