I feel like a broken record, but... remember 2017? When every forecast had the marathon getting warmer and warmer and we were all so worried about how to handle the heat? Right up until that Friday, when BAM! - a cold front canceled the half and sent us all scrambling to find enough layers to handle a very cold marathon?! I would make no final decisions on outfits at this time!

Yes. I’ve overly cautious and an Iowan (don’t like the weather? Wait 15 minutes), so I’m throwing in a little bit of everything.
 
I feel like a broken record, but... remember 2017? When every forecast had the marathon getting warmer and warmer and we were all so worried about how to handle the heat? Right up until that Friday, when BAM! - a cold front canceled the half and sent us all scrambling to find enough layers to handle a very cold marathon?! I would make no final decisions on outfits at this time!
People forget
 
I feel like a broken record, but... remember 2017? When every forecast had the marathon getting warmer and warmer and we were all so worried about how to handle the heat? Right up until that Friday, when BAM! - a cold front canceled the half and sent us all scrambling to find enough layers to handle a very cold marathon?! I would make no final decisions on outfits at this time!
I guess I didn't realize it was such a dramatic shift... this is really good to know. I need to pack a few warmer things!
 


I guess I didn't realize it was such a dramatic shift... this is really good to know. I need to pack a few warmer things!
It really was! I live down here and can throw things in my car at the very last minute, so there was no reason for me not to have had everything I'd need... but the forecast when I left home Wed. morning still looked like a pretty warm a marathon, and I didn't own anything you'd call "winter" running gear: the tights I wear in winter down here are considered summer-weight everywhere else - they have mesh panels in the pack to release heat lol! I was okay: I had enough layers that I managed. But I'd have been happier in fewer layers of warmer things, so I bought some after that and was more comfortable last year!
 
I feel like a broken record, but... remember 2017? When every forecast had the marathon getting warmer and warmer and we were all so worried about how to handle the heat? Right up until that Friday, when BAM! - a cold front canceled the half and sent us all scrambling to find enough layers to handle a very cold marathon?! I would make no final decisions on outfits at this time!

I was there. I hear you. I've planned to bring contingency-wear for everything from 20s to the 80s...
 
I will say this. If I showed up to my Disney vacation and noticed a pattern of rides only running at half capacity, thus forcing me to stand in line longer I sure would be writing to guest services as soon as I got home. I understand there are times that certain rides have to run at reduced capacity, but if I saw a pattern where it was pretty much every ride (eg. only one side of BTMRR, Space Mountain and POTC open) then I would have an issue with that.

You would think this goes against Disney wanting people to spend less time in line and more time eating and shopping.
 


I feel like a broken record, but... remember 2017? When every forecast had the marathon getting warmer and warmer and we were all so worried about how to handle the heat? Right up until that Friday, when BAM! - a cold front canceled the half and sent us all scrambling to find enough layers to handle a very cold marathon?! I would make no final decisions on outfits at this time!

Fair point. I am fully prepared to buy a bigger carry-on suitcase if not all my clothing fits in my checked luggage ... I just wish I didn't have to pack like that.
Oh, Florida...
 
I will say this. If I showed up to my Disney vacation and noticed a pattern of rides only running at half capacity, thus forcing me to stand in line longer I sure would be writing to guest services as soon as I got home. I understand there are times that certain rides have to run at reduced capacity, but if I saw a pattern where it was pretty much every ride (eg. only one side of BTMRR, Space Mountain and POTC open) then I would have an issue with that.

You would think this goes against Disney wanting people to spend less time in line and more time eating and shopping.
Its not always easy to tell. At a ride like Everest instead of running three trains they may only run 2. Those two would still be full so the average guest isn't going to notice a difference.

Disney wants the best of both worlds. People spending money and less operational costs. It doesn't always work that way.
 
Question for those of you with an annual pass. Up to how many bibs can you assign to your memory maker? Two of my younger sons preschool teachers are running the marathon and I thought about giving them their race photos if they hadn’t already purchased memory maker.
 
Question for those of you with an annual pass. Up to how many bibs can you assign to your memory maker? Two of my younger sons preschool teachers are running the marathon and I thought about giving them their race photos if they hadn’t already purchased memory maker.
I believe the stated number is 5?
 
I feel like a broken record, but... remember 2017? When every forecast had the marathon getting warmer and warmer and we were all so worried about how to handle the heat? Right up until that Friday, when BAM! - a cold front canceled the half and sent us all scrambling to find enough layers to handle a very cold marathon?! I would make no final decisions on outfits at this time!

Here is predicted race time T+D data from my journal (anything in grey was not captured because I was already gone to WDW by then):

Screen Shot 2019-01-04 at 1.22.05 PM.png

The last forecast I captured was 12/31/16 (Sunday prior to Marathon Weekend).

Predicted 5k temps were 101-124 from 6-10 days out. Actual race was 126.
Predicted 10k temps were 106-126 from 7-10 days out. Actual race was 102.
Predicted HM temps were 110-128 from 8-10 days out. Actual race was 143. Although storms canceled it.
Predicted M temps were 92-101 at race start and 100-115 at balloon lady time from 9-10 days out. Actual race was 68 at start and 86 at balloon lady time.

So the 5k and 10k were within reason predicted 7-10 days out. The HM was off by +15 from even the highest prediction 8-10 days out. The M was off by -24 from even the lowest prediction 9-10 days out.

More data to continue to reinforce the notion that it's really hard to predict FL weather with any level of certainty. Plan to bring everything. Because in a span of 24 hours, the T+D went from 143 to 68 in 2017. Which this isn't even just an isolated incident that one time either. This is T+D hourly data for dates that generally encompass Marathon Weekend (Jan 6th, 8th, and 10th). So it can be nice to look at, but when it comes to FL that swing in temps can be sudden.

Screen Shot 2019-01-04 at 1.33.17 PM.png
 
https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/blog/2018/04/what-is-memory-maker-one-day-and-where-can-i-buy-it/

Found this article regarding the one day memory maker - really thinking about doing this for the marathon. Cost is around $70, but if you want to download more than 4 photos it makes sense. I really hate getting my phone out at every character stop, and there is always that one great race photo that I want to have! Going to see if my run buddy will split it with me.

This article is perfect! Thanks for sharing, one less thing to worry about leading up to the big day :)
 
More data to continue to reinforce the notion that it's really hard to predict FL weather with any level of certainty. Plan to bring everything. Because in a span of 24 hours, the T+D went from 143 to 68 in 2017. Which this isn't even just an isolated incident that one time either.
(Bolding is mine) :rotfl2::rotfl2::rotfl2: I'm laughing because yes, not isolated at all - I live here in FL and this has literally been the case every week for the past month+! Very warm day, rainy day as front moves through, cold day, slightly warmer day, perfect day, repeat. This week, we got 3 Very Warm days in a row, which was a nice change! It's currently pouring and will be chilly again tomorrow. :rolleyes: BUT, I'm not complaining: happy to have this in lieu of snow or hurricanes. :thumbsup2
 

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