What kind of numbers does Florida need to come off of the quarantine list?

[mgarbowski]

Thanks for trying to break this down. I'm still confused because I thought the far right percentage in the Rochester database was where I should be looking for that 10% number? But it sounds like that's representative of the number of tests? Clearly math is not my strong suit

I think you're looking at the correct number for one of NY's triggers. The far right column in the Rochester database shows Florida's 7-day average of positive tests per 100k residents. It's only problem that I can see is it lags about a day behind Florida's latest figures. But for all I know NY state also lags a day behind the latest figures (or it doesn't - I truly don't know).

 

[MikeF;NJ]

Now they are testing 15-25k people daily. It's hard to get the positivity rate down below 10% with such a low denominator

Not sure where you are getting that number. According to the reports at the FL DOH site (the link I posted in my first post), since 9/1, they have had between 40K and 71K tests per day.

 

[Cliffside]

It seems the percent positivity rate varies quite a bit depending on where you look. When you look at some Florida stats it has been below 10%...but the Johns Hopkins tracker has never had it below 10%. Does anyone know the specific criteria New York State uses to determine quarantine states?

 

[nkereina]

It seems the percent positivity rate varies quite a bit depending on where you look. When you look at some Florida stats it has been below 10%...but the Johns Hopkins tracker has never had it below 10%. Does anyone know the specific criteria New York State uses to determine quarantine states?

I don't know the answer, but someone up-thread believes they use the Johns Hopkins numbers. FWIW, New York added Delaware, Maryland, Ohio, and West Virginia to the quarantine list yesterday. So if the Johns Hopkins numbers for those states jive with them being added to the list yesterday, then I think that would be a good indicator of what they use.

 

[Ollie Tabooger]

Funny stuff: The city of Chicago has Florida on its travel ban because of the case rate per 100,000. However, on the list of states, ranked one slot WORSE than Florida, is Illinois. At some point, will we have to quarantine ourselves?

 

[mgarbowski]

Not sure where you are getting that number. According to the reports at the FL DOH site (the link I posted in my first post), since 9/1, they have had between 40K and 71K tests per day.

Well this is a puzzler. I get my info from the link in my post, which again is
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida/history
At the far left of that it clearly shows New Tests of 15,189 for September 8, and other numbers between there and just below 24k the last week. But that page supposedly gets its data from the same site you listed, specifically

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429/
and

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/
And those sites, as you note, show 63k tests and just about just under 6% positive for yesterday. It's all the more puzzling because the Covid Tracking site I use not only says it gets its data direct from the Florida official site, but all the other metrics do line up. Meanwhile, as @Cliffside notes, the Johns Hopkins site matches the Covid tracking site, which is -- I'm pretty sure -- generally regarded as an extremely solid and possibly the best source for data from all 50 states. But I just cannot reconcile the daily test numbers on the official Florida site with the same metrics on the Covid tracking site. Something is off and I don't know what.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

On 8/31 there was a large dump of historical positive cases from a large lab. About 3000 or so old positives that all showed up on that day. If you look at the State report on https://floridahealthcovid19.gov before the 13th you should be able to see the footnotes on the one of the charts on the first or second page that explains it.

NOTE 9/1: DeSantis was informed late Monday that nearly 75,000 results of Quest testing data dating as far back as April would be ingested into the state’s COVID-19 data for Tuesday’s update. Source: Orlando Sentinel.

 

[JoJoGirl]

I just cannot reconcile the daily test numbers on the official Florida site with the same metrics on the Covid tracking site. Something is off and I don't know what.

The Florida DoH testing numbers include all people tested, including repeat tests. Their “percent positivity for new cases” includes all people tested, but but backs out those who had previously tested positive from both the numerator and denominator. The JH/CTP uses only “new people tested,” and seems to exclude all people who had been previously tested, either positive or negative.

This chart, taken from http://covid19florida.mystrikingly.com/, illustrates the difference:



This leaves an interesting conundrum. The more cumulative people who have been tested, the fewer there are to be tested for the first time (the JH/CTP measure). Therefore you see the widening gap between the two measures as time goes on.

It can be argued that repeat tests are not a good representation of the actual disease picture, therefore only new tests should be considered. This was no doubt true earlier on in the pandemic when it was mostly first responders and sick people who were being tested multiple times. But now, when you are seeing upwards of 2/3 of testing being excluded as “repeat tests,” you have to wonder if that is still the case.

 

[mgarbowski]

The Florida DoH testing numbers include all people tested, including repeat tests. Their “percent positivity for new cases” includes all people tested, but but backs out those who had previously tested positive from both the numerator and denominator. The JH/CTP uses only “new people tested,” and seems to exclude all people who had been previously tested, either positive or negative.

This chart, taken from http://covid19florida.mystrikingly.com/, illustrates the difference:

View attachment 525131

This leaves an interesting conundrum. The more cumulative people who have been tested, the fewer there are to be tested for the first time (the JH/CTP measure). Therefore you see the widening gap between the two measures as time goes on.

It can be argued that repeat tests are not a good representation of the actual disease picture, therefore only new tests should be considered. This was no doubt true earlier on in the pandemic when it was mostly first responders and sick people who were being tested multiple times. But now, when you are seeing upwards of 2/3 of testing being excluded as “repeat tests,” you have to wonder if that is still the case.

Thank you. This mystery has been pestering me since yesterday. Now the other issue is: which set of numbers does NY state rely upon? I fear it is the smaller one.

 

[cruisin5]

It will be interesting if some states, like Cali come off the NY ban when it is updated tomorrow.

Leaning towards driving for our November trip.

 

[georgina]

Funny stuff: The city of Chicago has Florida on its travel ban because of the case rate per 100,000. However, on the list of states, ranked one slot WORSE than Florida, is Illinois. At some point, will we have to quarantine ourselves?

Illinois is definitely on PA's suggested quarantine list! (Along with 16 other states)

 

[Ollie Tabooger]

Illinois is definitely on PA's suggested quarantine list! (Along with 16 other states)

Sweet. Chicago just removed Florida from their banned list.

 

[lynnfitz]

Come on NY!!!! Leaving in 35 days!

 

[Disneytam]

It will be interesting if some states, like Cali come off the NY ban when it is updated tomorrow.

Leaning towards driving for our November trip.

California is now off the quarantine restriction for NY. How long this will last is anyone's guess.

 

[buzzrelly]

Well, today is Tuesday…isn't this the day they update their hot spot state list? I'm hoping CT takes FL off. We only have this Tuesday and next Tuesday before our planned trip October 5th.

 

[jerseygal]

Well, today is Tuesday…isn't this the day they update their hot spot state list? I'm hoping CT takes FL off. We only have this Tuesday and next Tuesday before our planned trip October 5th.

No reason not to take Fl off list. State Positivity rate is now about 4.6 percent, certainly below 5%..Hope for you!

 

[buzzrelly]

No reason not to take Fl off list. State Positivity rate is now about 4.6 percent, certainly below 5%..Hope for you!

That gives me some hope! Thank you!

 

[MrsBooch]

Illinois is definitely on PA's suggested quarantine list! (Along with 16 other states)

Oh goody - another PA person!! I'm so grateful for this thread because I've googled every variation I can think of to figure out when PA re-evaluates their hot spot list - and how often - and what numbers they use - and I can't.

I'm seeing FL being removed from other state's lists, I think we are in cahoots with NY and CT so I think we follow suite? Do you have any idea of when Wolf looks at that stuff?

 

[jerseygal]

That gives me some hope! Thank you!

End of July into August, we were at Riviera(resort stay only), Vero Beach, and Hilton Head Island. We did not however, go into any parks, however rode the Skyliner for the first time(each party has their own cab), walked around the Boardwalk..Ate outdoors at most restaurants, but certainly ate indoors at some..all were great with masks and social distancing.
VERY IMPRESSED with the resorts Covid19 procedures..we felt safer at the resorts than going into say a Walmart or Publix, although shopping at these stores for food, etc we feel very safe! Everyone is masked, good social distancing.
Walmart here in Orange County for a very long time just had one door opening to go in and out of store, last week, just opening up the second door.
Enjoy your trip!

 

[buzzrelly]

End of July into August, we were at Riviera(resort stay only), Vero Beach, and Hilton Head Island. We did not however, go into any parks, however rode the Skyliner for the first time(each party has their own cab), walked around the Boardwalk..
VERY IMPRESSED with the resorts Covid19 procedures..we felt safer at the resorts than going into say a Walmart or Publix, although shopping at these stores for food, etc we feel very safe! Everyone is masked, good social distancing.
Walmart here in Orange County for a very long time just had one door opening to go in and out of store, last week, just opening up the second door.
Enjoy your trip!

I've been watching WDW vlogs and they seem to be doing everything right so I would feel safe! But my work won't allow us to travel to hot spot states unless there's a "rare exception." I figure the only way we'll get to go is if FL comes off the list.