Cruising after Covid?

[T & R]

I know it may be true that no cruising until a vaccine, it's just hard to say out loud and wish it wasn't so. If cruising is scrapped for a while the velocity of posts on this board is going to go way down. Other than itinerary release week, I've already seen a big drop off in DCL posts. Not a lot of traffic on the Caribbean Monk Seal forum or Dodo Bird forum either. The rationale still bothers me and I cannot wrap my head around the fact that in-person classes for schools are deemed ok but cruising is not. It's just so blaring obvious to me that the same reasons that make cruising not safe make in-person classes not safe, yet we're blazing away full speed to re-open the schools for in-person classes. Just don't get it and seems ripe for disaster. At first I thought they we're playing it smart and offering online learning but then a week ago our state said you had to have in-person classes starting 4 weeks into the school year and it could not be online only. So all of our school districts had to scramble because they got their plans yanked out from under them. I understand school is essential and cruising is not but there are alternatives to in-person classes, especially during the largest pandemic in our lifetime.

 

[monkeydawn]

I know it may be true that no cruising until a vaccine, it's just hard to say out loud and wish it wasn't so. If cruising is scrapped for a while the velocity of posts on this board is going to go way down. Other than itinerary release week, I've already seen a big drop off in DCL posts. Not a lot of traffic on the Caribbean Monk Seal forum or Dodo Bird forum either. The rationale still bothers me and I cannot wrap my head around the fact that in-person classes for schools are deemed ok but cruising is not. It's just so blaring obvious to me that the same reasons that make cruising not safe make in-person classes not safe, yet we're blazing away full speed to re-open the schools for in-person classes. Just don't get it and seems ripe for disaster. At first I thought they we're playing it smart and offering online learning but then a week ago our state said you had to have in-person classes starting 4 weeks into the school year and it could not be online only. So all of our school districts had to scramble because they got their plans yanked out from under them. I understand school is essential and cruising is not but there are alternatives to in-person classes, especially during the largest pandemic in our lifetime.

I can certainly agree with a lot of this. So far classes in MO and IN have had problems in the first week. Hopefully we will have less than a month of states trying to force in person learning. And hopefully the fallout wont be too bad for the communities that force it. I know if I had school age children in states that were forcing in person learning right now Id not. Id pull them from the system and be home schooling. But I also know that I am in a place of privilege that I could do that (from a not needing to work standpoint) and not everyone is in that position. Its particularly stinky what your state has done, changing course like that.

 

[T & R]

Its particularly stinky what your state has done, changing course like that.

Yes, it was really a blindside. Our districts were ready to move forward with online learning and then days ago our state Attorney General just throws a big monkey wrench into the works and says that you have to have in-person school by the 4th week of the school year. That went against even our own state education agency's guidance. My district was set up for online learning until at least October until this last minute bungle, which gave us some comfort since we have 4 school age kids. So we were 2 weeks from starting school and school boards across the state had to have emergency meetings to come up with new plans. To top it off we are considered a Covid hot zone state and hot zone county as well. So to relate it to cruising so my post doesn't get whacked, if the gov says schools are safe then cruises should be deemed safe too.

 

[randumb0]

Our governor hear in Florida created an executive order requiring 5 day in person schooling as an option a couple weeks back which caught all of the districts off guard. Everyone is focusing on the low risk for kids and are not thinking about the teachers in the classrooms or the families that the kids have to return home to.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

I have been following the news and have read that article. So does the vaccine work? Oh, that's right, that news article posted doesn't say. The news article does say "experimental", "no guarantee", "awaiting findings" "hopes to have results" "assumes everything is working right" and only a "first step". Hardly what I would call a break through. Also, this one is supposed to boost the immune system which will cause serious problems for those with auto-immune issues and possibly cause the body to attack itself. The 1918 pandemic usually killed those with strong immune systems because the immune system over responded, I wouldn't want to boost that. I'll pass on putting something "experimental" into my child's body. This is being rushed through testing and we will not know side effects until years later.

"Experimental": Yes, it hasn't been FDA approved yet.
"No guarantee": Nothing is medicine is ever guaranteed. Anyone who has signed a medical consent form for surgery would know that.
"Awaiting findings: Yes, it is still in clinical trials. We all know that. Once all the data is in, they will publish their final conclusion. So yes, we are waiting.
"Hopes to have results": Aren't we all hopeful? I would think that even those who don't want it, currently around half of Americans, would be hopeful that there's still 50% of us that won't get it and continue to spread it. Herd immunity begins when around 70% of a population is immune.
"Assumes everything is working right" and "first step": Don't take snippets and try to alter the message. This was the entire phrase:
He called the early results “a good first step,” and is optimistic that final testing could deliver answers about whether it’s really safe and effective by the beginning of next year. “It would be wonderful. But that assumes everything’s working right on schedule,” Schaffner cautioned. If you read the whole article, you would have understood that the "good first step" was actually referring back to the results of Phase 1 which was done in March.
Vaccines don't alter the way the immune system works, it simply adds another antigen to the list of thousands that the body already recognizes and can quickly attack. Allergies and auto-immune diseases are dysfunctions of the immune system. The "boost" referred to in my article from pp was that it creates antibodies which is a normal function of the immune system. This is very informative and might help:
http://www.imgt.org/IMGTeducation/Tutorials/ImmuneSystem/UK/the_immune_system.pdf


No one is going to force you or your children to get it. What is being rushed is the usual bureaucratic BS that makes things drag on and on. Anyone dealing with any government entity has learned this; things usually move at a snail's pace. What is also being rushed is the funding that it takes to perform all of this research. No one wants to work for free. In a typical year, medical research is not at the top of the world's priorities, financially speaking. This year, for this particular virus, it is.
Most hospitals that perform research, usually teaching hospitals, are on a tight budget, with 3 goals: patient care (hospital), teaching (medical school), and research. All of these things are important and expensive, and only so much can be dedicated to research. This is often a huge limiting factor. This year, many countries are pouring in funding because this has been such a life-altering disease worldwide and has become a high priority.

 

[randumb0]

I think at this point we have to wait on a vaccine. The question is how soon will cruising start once a large supply of a vaccine is made available?

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

Those are not easily transmissible diseases, like CV.
Nobody, not one person, boards a ship thinking "aww, I hope I don't contract AIDS or cancer on here.."
Totally different with CV... there's gotta be at least a vaccine or (better yet) a treatment for it or cruises will never sail safely...I'm 100% sure DCL is thinking this.

 

[Travel60]

Even IF an effective, safe vaccine is available by early 2021, the rollout will take months and there will be a priority protocol. It's still being worked out but I can imagine something like healthcare workers first, then "essential" workers including teachers, mass trans workers, postal and delivery services personnel, maybe certain food service and manufacturing workers. Then over 65 in congregate living. After these groups might be college students in congregate living and adults with risk factors. LAST in line will likely be healthy young and middle-age accountants, lawyers, IT folks, researchers, managers, administrators, retail, consultants, etc. who can and have (for the most part) successfully worked from home. Which of these groups do you think cruises the most?

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

I also believe in heard immunity, that's how we beat the 1918 pandemic. The problem is that we didn't social distance back then and the Spanish Flu still took about 2 to 3 years to die out. Today with the way we are slow rolling this, we could drag this thing out for decades which should have been over in months. If we had 70% positive tomorrow, then this thing would be over in 2 weeks. I understand it is dangerous up to 5% of the people but it's dangerous to those same 5% whether they get it tomorrow or trickle it and they get it over the next few years.

If we had 70% positive tomorrow, hospitals and morgues would be beyond overwhelmed. There would be dead bodies in the streets. It would be horrible.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

Those were my examples of diseases that are much more deadly and more prevalent than Covid that we still have not found a vaccine for. My example was for pinning hopes on vaccines and not which was easier to catch on a cruise. Just saying it's very possible that vaccines just don't come right away like many are hoping.

These diseases are not shutting down schools, businesses, parks, "routine" hospital functioning, sports, entertainment, etc.
NO disease has ever been as globally life-altering as COVID.

 

[monkeydawn]

Yes, it was really a blindside. Our districts were ready to move forward with online learning and then days ago our state Attorney General just throws a big monkey wrench into the works and says that you have to have in-person school by the 4th week of the school year. That went against even our own state education agency's guidance. My district was set up for online learning until at least October until this last minute bungle, which gave us some comfort since we have 4 school age kids. So we were 2 weeks from starting school and school boards across the state had to have emergency meetings to come up with new plans. To top it off we are considered a Covid hot zone state and hot zone county as well. So to relate it to cruising so my post doesn't get whacked, if the gov says schools are safe then cruises should be deemed safe too.

I was with you until the end. School does provide more than just education for so many families. It is so much more a necessity than cruising that I can understand the temptation in some areas to try it (I still strongly disagree but at least I can understand the attempt).

I actually had what was probably my highest risk week. I had to have a dental cleaning and I discussed with the dentist skipping in 6 months depending on where we are then. And my husband has a co worker that tested positive. Plus, until the storm took a turn it looked like my husband was going to be sequestered for a good bit at work which would have given him even greater exposure. We drove over to the beach yesterday just to check on the surf and see the storm prep that was taking place. There were tons of people out having a great time, especially in the bars. It would have been so easy to say f@^* it, since I am forced to have exposure in daily life, I might as well have a drink and a little fun (therefore choosing exposure). Ultimately I didnt but I can understand that mentality. So, while I get where you are coming from, I must disagree because the dangers of allowing Covid to just run rampant are too great. I can forego some riskier behavior in the name of fun, even if I am forced to engage in some riskier behavior just to live.

I think at this point we have to wait on a vaccine. The question is how soon will cruising start once a large supply of a vaccine is made available?

That depends largely on how many people are even willing to get the vaccination. I will follow my GIs recommendation as that is the angle that most concerns me as far as outcome for me if I were to get sick. I cant have certain vaccinations with my current treatment plan. But I can understand someone not wanting to try something that has the appearance of being rushed. If I can get it and my Dr thinks its the right move for me, I will. But if we dont get enough people willing to get the vaccine, then we are stuck waiting (either for more people to deem it safe or for treatment options).

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

I am worried that cruising is going to be banned until next year for the following reason. It's possible we have a second big wave and more shutdowns once schools starts back up. The same reasons that make cruising not safe make schools not safe. You are packing millions of kids/teachers/staff into the same buildings where they work, eat and play together for months. There are districts in Indiana that have already started in person classes and the positive cases for kids and staff have already begun. Many say that Covid is not as dangerous to kids and that may be true but in my area we have a large percentage of students being raised by their grandparents or have multi generations of family living in the same home. What is going to happen when across the country many thousands or more of positive asymptomatic kids return home from school with the virus?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i...id-19-on-first-day-back-to-school/ar-BB17qne9.

All of these things you say are true. I agree that it's not only students in schools but teachers, aides, office staff, cafeteria staff, librarians, counselors, etc. Even among student households, not everyone is able to keep their vulnerable family members protected or quarantined.
You have to admit though, that school is a much higher priority than cruising. So yes, all the more reason that the pleasure cruise industry will be on hold for a looong time. It sucks but that's our reality.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

Yes, it was really a blindside. Our districts were ready to move forward with online learning and then days ago our state Attorney General just throws a big monkey wrench into the works and says that you have to have in-person school by the 4th week of the school year. That went against even our own state education agency's guidance. My district was set up for online learning until at least October until this last minute bungle, which gave us some comfort since we have 4 school age kids. So we were 2 weeks from starting school and school boards across the state had to have emergency meetings to come up with new plans. To top it off we are considered a Covid hot zone state and hot zone county as well. So to relate it to cruising so my post doesn't get whacked, if the gov says schools are safe then cruises should be deemed safe too.

I would write letters to your governor, mayor, school board, AG, etc and let them know how you feel. If all parents of school age children did this, they might change their mind. (Personally, mine are beyond school age.) I work in Philadelphia and they were initially going to open schools with classes split in half: group A goes 2 days, then group B goes 2 days, then one day of massive cleaning. There was such a huge community outpour of concern that they switched back to online learning. There are no easy answers.

 

[vegs1]

We have booked our first Disney Cruise. I know nothing is known for sure, but I have heard that many cruise lines have said they will only book passengers in veranda rooms so that each room can have exterior ventilation. Pending this is the case, how will Disney handle those who have booked either an ocean view or interior room? I booked an ocean view, and now all rooms on my cruise are showing unavailable, aside from concierge. Would Disney cancel the reservations of passengers who booked inside or ocean view, or would they move everyone to veranda rooms? I realize everyone is just guessing at this point.

The OP is asking how everyone thinks Disney will handle those who have booked specific categories of rooms. Not about vaccines. Maybe we should get this back on track?

 

[CamColt]

Just a reminder we need to keep threads on topic here. Discussion about a vaccine has nothing to do with the OP question. If you would like to discuss a vaccine that can be done on the Community Board. This thread was started to get answers or at least guesses to their question. I'm letting this go for now with just this warning as I don't want to close it on the OP, but please let's all keep things on topic! Thank you!

 

[monkeydawn]

We have booked our first Disney Cruise. I know nothing is known for sure, but I have heard that many cruise lines have said they will only book passengers in veranda rooms so that each room can have exterior ventilation. Pending this is the case, how will Disney handle those who have booked either an ocean view or interior room? I booked an ocean view, and now all rooms on my cruise are showing unavailable, aside from concierge. Would Disney cancel the reservations of passengers who booked inside or ocean view, or would they move everyone to veranda rooms? I realize everyone is just guessing at this point.

You dont say when you are booked. If it's this fall or winter my guess is what you are seeing is in anticipation of them canceling the cruise altogether. I personally dont see DCL sailing before March of next year at the earliest now and even that feels optimistic to me.

 

[Jen81NYC]

I know it may be true that no cruising until a vaccine, it's just hard to say out loud and wish it wasn't so. If cruising is scrapped for a while the velocity of posts on this board is going to go way down. Other than itinerary release week, I've already seen a big drop off in DCL posts. Not a lot of traffic on the Caribbean Monk Seal forum or Dodo Bird forum either. The rationale still bothers me and I cannot wrap my head around the fact that in-person classes for schools are deemed ok but cruising is not. It's just so blaring obvious to me that the same reasons that make cruising not safe make in-person classes not safe, yet we're blazing away full speed to re-open the schools for in-person classes. Just don't get it and seems ripe for disaster. At first I thought they we're playing it smart and offering online learning but then a week ago our state said you had to have in-person classes starting 4 weeks into the school year and it could not be online only. So all of our school districts had to scramble because they got their plans yanked out from under them. I understand school is essential and cruising is not but there are alternatives to in-person classes, especially during the largest pandemic in our lifetime.

I don’t totally follow this. Setting aside the community spread issues in many areas right now (although mine for now is okay, knock on wood), in-person school is much more important to society/families than cruising (as you rightfully note). So it’s understandably being prioritized more. There’s a good Slate article that discusses the idea of an “exposure budget.”—it notes that “If you think of a town, or a state, as having only a certain amount of risk to “spend” in trying to keep transmission down, you can imagine that by opening certain activities up, you are “spending” that risk.” Ie, to maximize the success of school reopenings, you have to keep more things closed so that the risk “exposure budget” is only spent on key things like schools, and not cruises, etc. Unfortunately, we are generally trying to have too much open because we don’t want to pay the money to keep these businesses closed for the amount of time they’d need to be to make community spread low and increase the chance of successful in-person school, sigh. But fundamentally, it isn’t “why is cruising bad but in-person school okay”—It’s more that, in-person school to the extent possible is really important so we *really* should do what we can to make that safe and there is no such urgency with cruising (and having cruises open needlessly spends the risk exposure budget).

 

[Joe Brig]

These diseases are not shutting down schools, businesses, parks, "routine" hospital functioning, sports, entertainment, etc.
NO disease has ever been as globally life-altering as COVID.

The disease isn't shutting everything down, it's the media hungry politicians and "experts" In my state there hasn't been any deaths of people under 20, yet all the schools remain closed, but Walmart and all fast food restaurants are open. The elderly and other high risk groups should take precautions, everyone else have a very low risk and should get back to work and their lives. Most people who become positive will never have any symptoms and will help reach herd immunity.

 

[randumb0]

The disease isn't shutting everything down, it's the media hungry politicians and "experts" In my state there hasn't been any deaths of people under 20, yet all the schools remain closed, but Walmart and all fast food restaurants are open. The elderly and other high risk groups should take precautions, everyone else have a very low risk and should get back to work and their lives. Most people who become positive will never have any symptoms and will help reach herd immunity.

I wish I could say that it is like that here in Orlando. They had to shutdown a Walmart about a month ago due to covid

 

[PrincessShmoo]

The disease isn't shutting everything down, it's the media hungry politicians and "experts" In my state there hasn't been any deaths of people under 20, yet all the schools remain closed, but Walmart and all fast food restaurants are open. The elderly and other high risk groups should take precautions, everyone else have a very low risk and should get back to work and their lives. Most people who become positive will never have any symptoms and will help reach herd immunity.

What state is that?