Disney is hurting for cash

[TiggerBouncy]

30% doesnt pay the bills for studios or theaters. Theaters arent going to sell out 30% with classics either, so at that point it doesnt make sense to open until theres a new release.

Agreed. But my point is it's not just a release. You are right - 30% doesn't pay the bills. Even if Disney releases a few movies, the theaters here will still have a very tough time opening and showing them and attracting the audience. At least attracting enough of them to stay open. Mulan just won't be a huge financial success - at least not in my area - even if it is a good movie.

The one advantage that they will have is that people here are really getting a little stir-crazy and want something to do. A number of them might go to the movies if they feel its safe for no other reason than they haven't been able to for 5 months.

 

[Cygnus 2112]

All fair points. Disney does need to be careful not to cross the line into territory where people feel the park experience has lost value. Nonetheless, I expect a meeting could happen (or has happened) with an agenda that would be the inverse of a “Blue Sky” session: what could be eliminated—no sacred cows—to cut costs while maintaining critical mass? I could see rides like The People Mover, Carousel of Progress, Country Bear Jamboree, along with anything that requires equity performers like parades and stage shows, facing cuts. Character Cavalcades are a lot cheaper than a Festival of Fantasy parade, and people still get to see Pooh and the Princesses go down Main Street. Fireworks and projection shows will be back, but I think the closure and the subsequent low attendance numbers will give execs little choice but to pare down attractions to cut costs.

Do. Not. Touch. People. Mover.

 

[Sbunit]

I disagree. Disney is not going to stop requiring masks and social distancing until it is acceptable to do so - both medically and in people's perception.

Again, masks won't disappear just because a vaccine is here. People still have to get the vaccine.

I actually think once a vaccine is accessible to the public (which by the way they reported yesterday a vaccine will be available at no cost to the US population), a lot if not all restrictions will be lifted probably 90 days or so later. And I think masks will be one of them. It's not just about Disney, the government wants the human psyche to change and push everyone to "back to normal" behavior to salvage the economy. I predict (with no inside knowledge), once the vaccine hits the market there will be a push a few months later to get things back to the old normal or as close as possible. This will not be a long term issue spanning well into 2021. I'm marking spring 2021 as the "back to normal" phase. Disney IMO is an isolated example of the bigger picture.

 

[TXAKDisneyFan]

I actually think once a vaccine is accessible to the public (which by the way they reported yesterday a vaccine will be available at no cost to the US population), a lot if not all restrictions will be lifted probably 90 days or so later. And I think masks will be one of them. It's not just about Disney, the government wants the human psyche to change and push everyone to "back to normal" behavior to salvage the economy. I predict (with no inside knowledge), once the vaccine hits the market there will be a push a few months later to get things back to the old normal or as close as possible. This will not be a long term issue spanning well into 2021. I'm marking spring 2021 as the "back to normal" phase. Disney IMO is an isolated example of the bigger picture.

I certainly hope that an effective vaccine is available soon, that it's utilized, and that we can get back to a semblance of "normal." I'm not optimistic that a significant proportion of the population will voluntarily get the vaccine though. I read a mainstream article about a COVID vaccine yesterday, and *every* comment was either a joke about the vaccine disfiguring people or outright antivax sentiment. Unfortunately, there is a lot of antivax and/or conspiracy theory mentality, and combined with the general difficulty in getting people to get themselves/their kids vaccinated normally, I'm just not confident that we'll see enough people get vaccinated. (People often argue that the HPV vaccine, which has been around for 25 years, is "too new" and refuse to get their kids vaccinated against a virus that can give them cancer; I think there's going to be a lot of ppl unwilling to get a brand new vaccine against COVID.) Obviously there are plenty of people who are unwilling to wear masks under any circumstances, but I think for a lot of people, masks will be around for a while.

 

[Farro]

Well, in the immortal words of Wendy's, if people don't want their vaccines, please "step aside" so those who want can get!

 

[TommyJK]

Everyone should temper their expectations on a vaccine. While early signs on a few of them look good and with all of the resources/money that are being poured into finding one I'm faily optimistic there will be one (the scientists are all saying they are optimistic), but we're still in a "wait and see" how testing goes with large scale testing. All of the scientists are saying "Best case scenario, if we're lucky" there might be an approved vaccine by end of year/early next year. But up to now they have never been able to successfully create a vaccine for a coronavirus in the decades they have been trying. Also, the fastest a vaccine of any kind has ever made it to market has been 18 months (one) but most takes years and years (if ever).

Let's also consider on how long it will take to have enough quantity of a vaccine available for the full population at large. Sure they are starting production early on some of the most promising current vaccines so that once it's approved that there will be a lot out there from the start, but it's not going to be available to everyone from day 1. Front line workers, the elderly, the immunocompromised etc. will all be the first ones to have a vaccine available. I'm guessing it could be a good while longer until it's available to "healthy" regular folks who don't work in hospitals, schools, servicing the public etc.

It's good for some optimism but people should dial things back from expectations that there for sure will be a vaccine, by the end of the year, and that everyone will have access to it, and that everything will be back to normal by early next year.

Edit: My personal hope/optimism is that there will be a vaccine developed and approved perhaps by sometime early in 2021 (March-ish maybe?) and by the time it's available to all by the end of 2021. But also hoping that there are also good therapeutics found in the meantime as well that can also help with battling the virus for those who get it, so we can get park going experiences closer to what they once were sooner, rather than later.

 

[circus4u]

One thing I keep reading about the vaccines is that they may only offer immunity for two months. If that is indeed the case, how can you immunize an entire population before you have to start over again?

 

[Sbunit]

I certainly hope that an effective vaccine is available soon, that it's utilized, and that we can get back to a semblance of "normal." I'm not optimistic that a significant proportion of the population will voluntarily get the vaccine though. I read a mainstream article about a COVID vaccine yesterday, and *every* comment was either a joke about the vaccine disfiguring people or outright antivax sentiment. Unfortunately, there is a lot of antivax and/or conspiracy theory mentality, and combined with the general difficulty in getting people to get themselves/their kids vaccinated normally, I'm just not confident that we'll see enough people get vaccinated. (People often argue that the HPV vaccine, which has been around for 25 years, is "too new" and refuse to get their kids vaccinated against a virus that can give them cancer; I think there's going to be a lot of ppl unwilling to get a brand new vaccine against COVID.) Obviously there are plenty of people who are unwilling to wear masks under any circumstances, but I think for a lot of people, masks will be around for a while.

I totally agree with everything you’re stating. I think the plan with the government is essentially make a viable vaccine ASAP (regardless of how long it provides us with immunity and IMO we are probably going to need annual vaccinations or boosters like the annual flu shot), and regardless of how much of the population decides to take it, push the agenda of everyone and everything go back about your business as usual. I don’t think they’re going to care that a significant number of people will probably opt out of taking the vaccine, they are just going to promote the idea of getting things back to normal because a vaccine is now in circulation.

 

[OSUZorba]

Yes but people make these reservations in advance. They knew how many hotel bookings they have as well. You forecast what the parks will look like from that. Of course they aren't going to just shut back down, I never said that. I believe they would look to close certain aspects of the operation before a full shut down like maybe closing some resorts back down or maybe even only keeping two parks open.

I think if Disney knew they were going to be this empty, they would've given price protection to people forced to change hotels. I agree Disney normally has great data, but nobody has good data for the current situation on how people are going to act. Many people don't even know how they are going to individually act with regards to travel or even school right now. I've spent the last week thinking about whether my daughter is going to PreK this year and coming up with multiple plans, a decision I made and was confident in years ago.

 

[OSUZorba]

All fair points. Disney does need to be careful not to cross the line into territory where people feel the park experience has lost value. Nonetheless, I expect a meeting could happen (or has happened) with an agenda that would be the inverse of a “Blue Sky” session: what could be eliminated—no sacred cows—to cut costs while maintaining critical mass? I could see rides like The People Mover, Carousel of Progress, Country Bear Jamboree, along with anything that requires equity performers like parades and stage shows, facing cuts. Character Cavalcades are a lot cheaper than a Festival of Fantasy parade, and people still get to see Pooh and the Princesses go down Main Street. Fireworks and projection shows will be back, but I think the closure and the subsequent low attendance numbers will give execs little choice but to pare down attractions to cut costs.

At some point Disney will switch from limiting attendance to trying to attract and grew it. They aren't going to attract people with a whole bunch of lasting cuts. There will be huge welcome parties for parades and fireworks, etc. They'll make cuts in the less visible areas, not the main attractions.

 

[OSUZorba]

I certainly hope that an effective vaccine is available soon, that it's utilized, and that we can get back to a semblance of "normal." I'm not optimistic that a significant proportion of the population will voluntarily get the vaccine though. I read a mainstream article about a COVID vaccine yesterday, and *every* comment was either a joke about the vaccine disfiguring people or outright antivax sentiment. Unfortunately, there is a lot of antivax and/or conspiracy theory mentality, and combined with the general difficulty in getting people to get themselves/their kids vaccinated normally, I'm just not confident that we'll see enough people get vaccinated. (People often argue that the HPV vaccine, which has been around for 25 years, is "too new" and refuse to get their kids vaccinated against a virus that can give them cancer; I think there's going to be a lot of ppl unwilling to get a brand new vaccine against COVID.) Obviously there are plenty of people who are unwilling to wear masks under any circumstances, but I think for a lot of people, masks will be around for a while.

I worry about this too, but I have a feeling that there'll be a a lot of things an unvaccinated person won't be able to do. Comments on stories are likely mostly trolls and some true believers. I think once one comes out, with real data and real backing most people will get it.

 

[afan]

I worry about this too, but I have a feeling that there'll be a a lot of things an unvaccinated person won't be able to do. Comments on stories are likely mostly trolls and some true believers. I think once one comes out, with real data and real backing most people will get it.

I agree. Plus it wasn't that long ago that polio shots were given and required at school. While I don't think we can get away with that any more it can still be required for school. The measles is still mostly gone from this country even with the small outbreaks it wasn't able to spread. It'll come down to the education and sadly the people employed in the ads supporting it. It'll take the pro athletes, nascar drivers (I do consider them pro athletes too but think they target an audience better than others), musicians and actors etc.

While I don't think places like Disney will require it for entry I'm sure we'll see other countries require it like they already do other things. But the parks, airlines, movie theaters etc are still going to have to figure out what of all of this stuff to continue since not all will get it. I hope a lot of the cleaning continues, remotes in bags, surfaces cleaned way more often, hand sanitizer and the hand washing stations all over.

 

[New Mouse]

I think if Disney knew they were going to be this empty, they would've given price protection to people forced to change hotels. I agree Disney normally has great data, but nobody has good data for the current situation on how people are going to act. Many people don't even know how they are going to individually act with regards to travel or even school right now. I've spent the last week thinking about whether my daughter is going to PreK this year and coming up with multiple plans, a decision I made and was confident in years ago.

I mean common sense would have told me charging full price or upcharging during a pandemic is a bad idea...i dont need computers or surveys for that one. The leadership at Disney is not in touch with reality most of the time anymore.

The fact that these message boards (which they do follow) was very split on going back was the only data point you needed.

 

[BrianL]

One thing I keep reading about the vaccines is that they may only offer immunity for two months. If that is indeed the case, how can you immunize an entire population before you have to start over again?

If you can get the majority of the population immunized for that long, then a lot of the virus will die out. It would still crop up, but hopefully in controllable pockets. Then you can vaccinate, and let it die out there, and sort of repeat until the numbers become mninscule. It likely never goes away completely though.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Everyone should temper their expectations on a vaccine. While early signs on a few of them look good and with all of the resources/money that are being poured into finding one I'm faily optimistic there will be one (the scientists are all saying they are optimistic), but we're still in a "wait and see" how testing goes with large scale testing. All of the scientists are saying "Best case scenario, if we're lucky" there might be an approved vaccine by end of year/early next year. But up to now they have never been able to successfully create a vaccine for a coronavirus in the decades they have been trying. Also, the fastest a vaccine of any kind has ever made it to market has been 18 months (one) but most takes years and years (if ever).

Let's also consider on how long it will take to have enough quantity of a vaccine available for the full population at large. Sure they are starting production early on some of the most promising current vaccines so that once it's approved that there will be a lot out there from the start, but it's not going to be available to everyone from day 1. Front line workers, the elderly, the immunocompromised etc. will all be the first ones to have a vaccine available. I'm guessing it could be a good while longer until it's available to "healthy" regular folks who don't work in hospitals, schools, servicing the public etc.

It's good for some optimism but people should dial things back from expectations that there for sure will be a vaccine, by the end of the year, and that everyone will have access to it, and that everything will be back to normal by early next year.

Edit: My personal hope/optimism is that there will be a vaccine developed and approved perhaps by sometime early in 2021 (March-ish maybe?) and by the time it's available to all by the end of 2021. But also hoping that there are also good therapeutics found in the meantime as well that can also help with battling the virus for those who get it, so we can get park going experiences closer to what they once were sooner, rather than later.

You have a very sensible view, and I share it pretty much. I am concerned that a viable vaccine will also require bi-yearly boosters and I do not know if everyone is willing to accept that (I have diabetes so get my A1C tested every 6 months like clockwork anyway, so it's no trouble to me but I am not the average bear). EVENTUALLY science will catch up and we will beat the virus back completely I am sure and it will be a footnote - much like the Black Plague (which people still get by the way).

Like the Plague, I suspect, the true solution is not going to be solely vaccines, but as you eluded to the ability for us to treat people who do get sick with COVID. There have already been promising developments in that area, and unlike a vaccine, distribution is not as difficult as it requires less active doses AND most of the success we are having are with commonly available drugs or cocktails. COVID will be relegated to the same level as the common cold or flu - dangerous for the elderly, young and immuno-compromised, but generally safe for the public at large with the right treatment (and I think over the counter medication for most cases).

Bottom line, I think we WILL see a return to normal eventually, but I suspect what is going to happen is late 2020 we will have treatments which will make people feel a little more daring and less constrained, but we will be fighting this thing in waves through most of 2021 before we settle to a "normal" when vaccines are widely available in large enough quantities and treatments where the vaccine fails.

 

[Alicefan]

DIsney World refusing to close as deaths begin to spike and then continue to spike may also be devastating.

At this point I don't see people freaking out as much as we'd expect them to because people are getting to the point where they understand that companies are just trying to salvage what they can of their businesses and keep people employed. We can't stay closed forever no matter what is happening around us. As for Disney, they're just doing what they've always done. Taking people's money. The world is used to them doing that so the backlash will be minimal. I dunno, does anyone else feel like this is karma? I can't say that there isn't a part of me that is thinking, "That's what you get for being so money grubbing and turning Walt's dream into a rich person's playground." I think the only backlash that Disney will receive is if they try to gouge our wallets like they always do. What they need to do for the 50th is not make a ton of changes and extras, they NEED to offer huge discounts and free dining. They need to give back to the people that made them billions. This is the time to say thank you to the people that made you. I get they can't give away the farm, but if they want us back, they are going to have to give back during a time like this. It would carry a lot of weight in future if they did. (Insert little CEO from Mr. Mom waving his little flag..."the tuna with a heart") lol

 

[rteetz]

I think if Disney knew they were going to be this empty, they would've given price protection to people forced to change hotels. I agree Disney normally has great data, but nobody has good data for the current situation on how people are going to act. Many people don't even know how they are going to individually act with regards to travel or even school right now. I've spent the last week thinking about whether my daughter is going to PreK this year and coming up with multiple plans, a decision I made and was confident in years ago.

They did give price protection. For example those that were moved from say All-Stars to Pop did not pay more to stay at Pop. They are paying their All-Star rate at Pop.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

I dunno, does anyone else feel like this is karma? I can't say that there isn't a part of me that is thinking, "That's what you get for being so money grubbing and turning Walt's dream into a rich person's playground." I think the only backlash that Disney will receive is if they try to gouge our wallets like they always do. What they need to do for the 50th is not make a ton of changes and extras, they NEED to offer huge discounts and free dining. They need to give back to the people that made them billions. This is the time to say thank you to the people that made you. I get they can't give away the farm, but if they want us back, they are going to have to give back during a time like this.

No. I absolutely do not think it’s karma. Many businesses large and small are struggling right now. Disney is no different. Pretty messed up to think economic impact from a pandemic is karma for Disney being expensive.

And, no. I don’t think they should “give back” to guests. Discounts are great to entice people back, yes. But I don’t feel Disney owes me anything for choosing to pay to travel there in the past ... going to Disney is ALWAYS a choice.

I would prefer they pay their front line cast members better rather than give guests handouts.

 

[hertamaniac]

No. I absolutely do not think it’s karma. Many businesses large and small are struggling right now. Disney is no different. Pretty messed up to think economic impact from a pandemic is karma for Disney being expensive.

And, no. I don’t think they should “give back” to guests. Discounts are great to entice people back, yes. But don’t feel Disney owes me anything for choosing to pay to travel there in the past ... going to Disney is ALWAYS a choice.

I would prefer they pay their front line cast members better rather than give guests handouts.

That's it.....Disney is not a charitable donation for paying guests. It is an integral part of the local economy. To associate karma as a means of a pseudo equalizer is a stretch in my opinion.

 

[skeeter31]

No. I absolutely do not think it’s karma. Many businesses large and small are struggling right now. Disney is no different. Pretty messed up to think economic impact from a pandemic is karma for Disney being expensive.

And, no. I don’t think they should “give back” to guests. Discounts are great to entice people back, yes. But don’t feel Disney owes me anything for choosing to pay to travel there in the past ... going to Disney is ALWAYS a choice.

I would prefer they pay their front line cast members better rather than give guests handouts.

Precisely. Disney is not there as a charity to make your life easier. They need to make a profit, and this pandemic made that even harder for them. To liken the pandemic to karma for big companies is foolish and hurtful.

As for the 50th, don’t be surprised if prices are even higher than you’ve ever seen before.