Do you agree with the 50-100 day window for best airfares?

[MillauFr]

Best time to buy is always when the flights are first released.

 

[DebbieB]

Best time to buy is always when the flights are first released.

I’ve found that to be true. I usually fly SW PIT-MCO and it rarely goes down much. I book with points so I watch it and it will occasionally drop a little not long after release but after that it usually only goes up.

 

[focusondisney]

Best time to buy is always when the flights are first released.

Disagree. I have found rates lower than opening day rates for my airport & preferred route several times. It may be different for your airport. But best rates on opening day is not always true for mine. Best advice is to know what is a good rate from your airport & book when you see that rate, no matter when it is.

Edit to add an example. We were just at Disney last month with my sister & her husband. They booked on opening day as soon as flights came out & paid about $125. I was not able to book as soon as flights were released & they had jumped by the time I got home from work. So I did not book. In July, the flight dropped to $86, a significant drop from opening day prices. That's when I booked my tickets.

Within the past 2 years, we have traveled to Orlando about 5 times. I have booked on opening day for 1 trip & prices never dropped lower. I have booked on opening day & gotten credits after the price dropped. And I have seen prices open high, go even higher with a WGA fares selling out for weeks & then come back at even lower than opening day rates. There is no hard & fast rule for every city & every route.

 

[mcd2745]

We mostly fly SW, and I've always found the best prices to always be when they are initially released - at least for our preferred airport (ISP). They go up quickly thereafter (unless you are departing and returning on Tuesdays), and then may come back down some in that 100-50 day range, but never as low as when first released.

 

[Disneypapa]

I am pretty much in agreement that the best fares can be obtained in the 50-100 day window. But when checking, if I think the price is reasonable, I go ahead, because almost without fail, the air fares go up and not down if I wait.

 

[mousestruck]

Disagree. I have found rates lower than opening day rates for my airport & preferred route several times. It may be different for your airport. But best rates on opening day is not always true for mine. Best advice is to know what is a good rate from your airport & book when you see that rate, no matter when it is.

Edit to add an example. We were just at Disney last month with my sister & her husband. They booked on opening day as soon as flights came out & paid about $125. I was not able to book as soon as flights were released & they had jumped by the time I got home from work. So I did not book. In July, the flight dropped to $86, a significant drop from opening day prices. That's when I booked my tickets.

Within the past 2 years, we have traveled to Orlando about 5 times. I have booked on opening day for 1 trip & prices never dropped lower. I have booked on opening day & gotten credits after the price dropped. And I have seen prices open high, go even higher with a WGA fares selling out for weeks & then come back at even lower than opening day rates. There is no hard & fast rule for every city & every route.

Well said. We have had the exact same experience with SWA. Sometimes best fares — or near best fares — are opening day. But not always.

Flights for last November were sky high on opening day and several WGA fares sold out that day. I was so freaked out that I booked flights out of a different airport (on SWA). I kept checking and about a month or two later those sold out fares mysteriously reappeared - and much lower than they were on opening day. I switched back to our original airport and snatched up great fares!

So I don’t believe there are any magic rules. My advice is to know the price you’re looking for, check frequently, and buy when you find a fare you’re happy with. It is hard to be patient, but patience can pay off big time!

 

[wdw&sonny]

Hi OP,
Since you say you are not a frequent flyer, where are you flying from and what are your travel dates? And, how are you checking airline prices? Which airlines? That info can help us give you suggestions to try to find better prices.

 

[DisneyDeb83]

We just returned from our trip to MCO from Philly. We originally booked on day one of Southwest schedule opening and paid $90 each way, which we thought was a decent price. Over the next few months we rebooked a couple times until finally getting it down to $25 each way. Of course, we adjusted the times a bit, leaving a bit later to get to Disney, and a late morning return flight, but we couldn’t pass it up.

That’s why we like flying Southwest so we can get the low airfare and credit if the price comes down. Now my dilemma, another trip to Disney before the credit expires, or should I be nice and plan a trip to Atlanta to see the Phillies play for dear hubby?

 

[mousestruck]

We just returned from our trip to MCO from Philly. We originally booked on day one of Southwest schedule opening and paid $90 each way, which we thought was a decent price. Over the next few months we rebooked a couple times until finally getting it down to $25 each way. Of course, we adjusted the times a bit, leaving a bit later to get to Disney, and a late morning return flight, but we couldn’t pass it up.

That’s why we like flying Southwest so we can get the low airfare and credit if the price comes down. Now my dilemma, another trip to Disney before the credit expires, or should I be nice and plan a trip to Atlanta to see the Phillies play for dear hubby?

Wow... $25???!!! That is amazing? Haven’t seen fares like that ever! Great score!

 

[DisneyDeb83]

Crazy, isn’t it? It would cost more to take Rapid Rover to the airport from our home 15 miles away! I also got that same price for a coworker from Philly to Fort Lauderdale in February. I am a bit obsessed with checking SW often to see if the prices come down. Though in the long run it doesn’t save me anything since I usually plan another trip with the credit!

 

[CeruleanMoon]

I'm reading this thread and feeling so discouraged. How are people finding such good rates? I've been checking various airfare aggregators for months but have yet to see anything cheaper than $600 - $800 a ticket! I'm not coming from some far away country either. We're flying out of upstate NY. Prices haven't budged in all the months I've been watching them. The only thing I'm doing that could be upping rates is I've eliminated any airlines that don't let you choose your seats. Ideally I'd like to get a non-stop flight since neither DH nor I care for flying, but those are the $800 tickets. I've checked other airports that are a father drive away, or flights that aren't nonstop, and that gives me the $600 or so rates. We're still looking at $1800 for 3 people minimum. Airfare is taking a huge chunk out of our budget that I (unknowingly, I rarely fly) didn't account for.

Edited to add: I've been thinking and I realized that I might be doing other things that aren't helping...like I'm eliminating flights that have 10+ layovers (or overnight ones), flights that would have us up all night in order to get there on time, etc. Are people getting these better rates just being more flexible than I am? As much as I want to save money, I just can't see us choosing some of these undesirable flights that being listed for less. (And they're still not cheap per se...like around $300+ per ticket.) I'm also having trouble finding flights that don't end up cutting off days from our vacation or cause difficulties with scheduling. (We have a relative picking us up and driving us to a house 2 hours away on arrival day, so I didn't want to get in super late since she doesn't like driving at night, for example.)

 

[sam_gordon]

I'm reading this thread and feeling so discouraged. How are people finding such good rates? I've been checking various airfare aggregators for months but have yet to see anything cheaper than $600 - $800 a ticket! I'm not coming from some far away country either. We're flying out of upstate NY. Prices haven't budged in all the months I've been watching them. The only thing I'm doing that could be upping rates is I've eliminated any airlines that don't let you choose your seats. Ideally I'd like to get a non-stop flight since neither DH nor I care for flying, but those are the $800 tickets. I've checked other airports that are a father drive away, or flights that aren't nonstop, and that gives me the $600 or so rates. We're still looking at $1800 for 3 people minimum. Airfare is taking a huge chunk out of our budget that I (unknowingly, I rarely fly) didn't account for.

Edited to add: I've been thinking and I realized that I might be doing other things that aren't helping...like I'm eliminating flights that have 10+ layovers (or overnight ones), flights that would have us up all night in order to get there on time, etc. Are people getting these better rates just being more flexible than I am? As much as I want to save money, I just can't see us choosing some of these undesirable flights that being listed for less. (And they're still not cheap per se...like around $300+ per ticket.) I'm also having trouble finding flights that don't end up cutting off days from our vacation or cause difficulties with scheduling. (We have a relative picking us up and driving us to a house 2 hours away on arrival day, so I didn't want to get in super late since she doesn't like driving at night, for example.)

I know you're exaggerating, but yes, the more flexible you are, the better off you are on finding cheaper flights. If you are only willing to fly at 2pm on Friday with no stops, someone willing to fly at 6am with a stop (or two) will probably find a cheaper rate.

My suggestion is to look at ALL the flights between point A & point B.
Only eliminate times if they physically don't work for you (you can't get out of work until 2p and the flight is at 11:30a).
Look at days before or after. I've been able to save money by taking an extra vacation day either before or after the trip (instead of leaving Saturday, leave on Friday).
The other thing is to look at where you're going and where you're leaving from. Generally smaller airports will be more expensive. However, they may be closer and security usually isn't such a big deal.
Look at WHEN you're going. If you're travelling around major holidays, the price will be more.
Keep looking at prices. I don't remember if it was in this thread or not, but I know I mentioned it... we were taking a trip to Europe. We had to be there on a specific day. I started checking airfare and it was ~$1200/pp. After about a month and a half, the price dropped to $450pp. That sale lasted 36 hours. Then prices were back to $1200 and never went down. So yes, luck and persistence has a lot to do with it.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

I appreciate your response. The choices I'm being given really are pretty unsatisfactory. Every time I think I see a better fare, I stop and go, "oh wait, it leaves at 5:00am? Or "...a 12 hr layover??" or..."it leaves at 11pm and doesn't get in until morning?" I'm thinking my problem may be a combo of where we are (not really near any major airports) and when we are traveling (end of April, maybe the airlines consider this still spring break season?) I see much cheaper fares being advertised for totally different dates (we can't really be flexible on dates, I'm afraid) or or going into or out of major cities.

I'm trying to figure out how best to balance inconvenience with price and my brain's starting to hurt. I've tried flying into one airport and out another, checking all the nearby airports, trying to decide if we really could stand to leave the house at 200am just to get there. I'm probably just going to have to bite the bullet and increase our budget. I just get so discouraged when I hear about other people finding great rates for hundreds cheaper!

 

[focusondisney]

I appreciate your response. The choices I'm being given really are pretty unsatisfactory. Every time I think I see a better fare, I stop and go, "oh wait, it leaves at 5:00am? Or "...a 12 hr layover??" or..."it leaves at 11pm and doesn't get in until morning?" I'm thinking my problem may be a combo of where we are (not really near any major airports) and when we are traveling (end of April, maybe the airlines consider this still spring break season?) I see much cheaper fares being advertised for totally different dates (we can't really be flexible on dates, I'm afraid) or or going into or out of major cities.

I'm trying to figure out how best to balance inconvenience with price and my brain's starting to hurt. I've tried flying into one airport and out another, checking all the nearby airports, trying to decide if we really could stand to leave the house at 200am just to get there. I'm probably just going to have to bite the bullet and increase our budget. I just get so discouraged when I hear about other people finding great rates for hundreds cheaper!

But you can't really compare other's rates to yours. Everyone's situation is different. You would need to compare the rates other people get from your airport
for the times & airlines you prefer to really decide what is or isn't a good rate. Doesn't matter what someone from NYC is getting, or what I am getting. For example, I prefer early morning (6AM) & late night return nonstop flights from Buffalo on Southwest. Takes me 20 minutes to get to the airport. Sounds like you live further from a major airport or that your airport is in a smaller city. We love getting to Disney early in the day, even if we have to get up at 3:30 am & want all day there before we head home. That might not work for you. I won't do an airline like Frontier which has limited flights & charges for everything ala carte. And I only do nonstops, so that leaves me with Southwest & Jetblue. So the rate someone got on United from Boston with a plane change along the way & arrives in Orlando at 3 pm would never be comparable to what I would expect to pay for my preferred flight.

Definitely figure out what airports you are willing to fly out of & which airlines will or won't work for your family. Then keep an eye on the flights for those airlines & airports. If the typical rates are too much, then you'll have to decide on what you can change: airport, airline or budget. But don't let the fact that other people, in other cities, flying different airlines are getting cheaper rates discourage you. Some airlines & cities are just more expensive to fly from.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

Definitely figure out what airports you are willing to fly out of & which airlines will or won't work for your family. Then keep an eye on the flights for those airlines & airports. If the typical rates are too much, then you'll have to decide on what you can change: airport, airline or budget. But don't let the fact that other people, in other cities, flying different airlines are getting cheaper rates discourage you. Some airlines & cities are just more expensive to fly from.

Thanks, I'm sure you're right. Now that our trip is getting closer, I'll be watching the fares more closely. I appreciate the encouragement.

 

[JillL.]

**does anyone use the app hopper?? you can load your dates and destinations and it checks on airfare for you it also lets you know if the price may go up or down.
**I fly the cheapest flight and if their are inconveniences I compare them to the 24 hour drive with my kids VS. flying with inconveniences.
** I use bargain airlines and adjust my expectations. its 2 hours 20 in the air and i can put up with almost anything for that long.
**I also try 2 different airports for departure.
** I check every morning over coffee it takes 5 minutes as soon as i see the price drop or a window with cheap fairs open i buy and i will know weather its a good price because i have been watching for a few months.
**The time of year you fly always has an extreme affect. We flew to MCO in Dec over Christmas and didn't get decent airfare till the last week in october until then it has been 200+ per person, that week it dropped and i got all 5 of us round trip, non stop, with 1 bag for $380.00

 

[Befferk]

Best time to buy is always when the flights are first released.

I fly Delta exclusively, and I've read the article about the "54 days" thing, so this trip I experimented (I'm flying from Minneapolis to Ft. Myers 3/22/18 and returning 4/1/18). I started watching flights in late May 2017 I believe. The lowest price was on September 28th. After that they started to climb. I purchased on November 5th because I realized they weren't coming back down. I always search using flexible dates, and chose our dates based on the cheapest combination within a few days window each way. So, even after I purchased, just for fun I've checked prices literally every day since. They have never dropped. Actually, they've stayed about $400-500 more, PER SEAT, since I purchased ours (the tickets we bought are currently $1100-$1200 each right now for Delta Comfort ). Today is 49 days until our trip. Now mind you, this is a popular time (Spring break), but if I had waited it out, not only would I have paid through the nose, almost ALL seats on both our flights are already filled. After many trips to Disney and other parts of FL, I stand by my "buy early" method. I've never been burned.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

How do you know when flights are first released? Is it different for each airline?

 

[sam_gordon]

How do you know when flights are first released? Is it different for each airline?

Most legacy airlines (Delta, United, American) release on a rolling schedule 330 days before the date. So if you want to look for the round trip, you'd need to wait until 330 days before your return date.

Others (Southwest, Jetblue, etc) release a bunch at a certain time. They should have posted somewhere on their website when their next release date is and what dates it will cover.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

Most legacy airlines (Delta, United, American) release on a rolling schedule 330 days before the date. So if you want to look for the round trip, you'd need to wait until 330 days before your return date.

Others (Southwest, Jetblue, etc) release a bunch at a certain time. They should have posted somewhere on their website when their next release date is and what dates it will cover.

Ok, looks like I long missed that deadline then.