Inserting wrench to the works of this conversation. I agree with the logic if not owning VGC points, then at the 11 month mark reserving a studio is near impossible. However, if you target a one or two bedroom unit then the odds a better. This has been our experience for a family of four. Our points are at Poly and Bay Lake, and we've managed to land VCG reservations the two times we tried.
Don't get me wrong, owning at VCG is certainly the way to go. Direct and resale wasn't really an option at the time we bought our points.
Enjoying this thread. Appreciate the insights. I believe we will be buying at VDH. Our primary goal is to visit
Disneyland, and with VDH we'll have more room selections at 11 months plus perhaps we can get lucky and score a one bedroom at VGC if available. But either way, we'll be at Disneyland.