from my experience of seeing people being walked they actually consider loyalty first then the time you check in (I used to travel a lot for work) not sure if that's still the case now but this was the case for SPG/Marriot before the merger.Yes, I think getting walked has more to do with when you show up vs how you pay for the room. As long as you are planning on checking in before the show I would think you'd be fine.
So it would be OTA then status then check-in time.