The Running Thread - 2019

[Bree]

I am very familiar with this area as I drive this way every day to work. It is pretty hilly for people who are used to flat areas. If you are looking for flatter, look by the seacoast. Depending on when you are looking, there are some great races in the fall and the weather should be cooler.

I’m looking for September and first weekend of October. I’m running all three wine and Dine races so I wanted a bit of a buffer. Plus I have Goofy coming up in January. I was hoping I could turn that race into a a quick family visit. My mom still lives in MA and I could have flown into Worcester and stayed at her house.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

How horrible are these hills? I live in FL so the biggest hills I have are stepping on and off curbs.

View attachment 410312

I agree with the others, that these are rolling hills and should not bother you physically, but you need to run a few onramp uphills in FL to get ready for the mental aspect. Running hills is more a mental hurdle than a physical one (until/unless the hills get steep), but that mental hurdle can wreck your run.

Be confident. Attack the hills by maintaining a consistent run effort up and down the hills (effort, not speed) and KNOW that you have this.

 

[DopeyBadger]

So should I cross this one of the list as a potential new POT race?

As far as POT goes, that depends. It depends on what POT you currently have and what you're aiming for.



Looks like your 2018 Star Wars HM was 2:13 and per Strava your best performance. So that currently places you at an estimate of Corral D. The training plan we had just created for March 2019 (#295) was based on a 26:48 5k and 2:03 HM projection (a move-up from the Dopey plan). This would be a 1:31 10 mile projection. Your 2:13 actual result from 2018 suggests a 1:39 10 miler. To move out of Corral D, you're looking for a 1:35 10 miler or better (as an estimate). So yes, since you fall so close to the cut line a difference of 2 min (hilly course vs flat course) could be the difference between gaining a new corral or not. This is based on 2018 version of you around a 1:39 vs where we thought you'd be in March 2019 (1:31) prior to the injury.

So based on this, if the only goal is to try to move to Corral C, I would not suggest doing the Apple Harvest 10 miler.

There’s also one I’m looking at in MN, it’s described as mostly downhill. That’s pretty hard on the quads?

The Log Run Boom Site 10 miler has a total elevation gain of 381 feet per the mapmyrun data. But what this race gains is exceeded by what it loses. A net loss of 250 feet. That hill at the end of the race is a 200 foot drop in 0.3 miles (or about 666 feet per mile). That is a pretty aggressive drop and that's where it's going to beat you up. So while on the surface it may appear like this net loss of 250 feet per mile will help, because it mostly occurs in a single drop covering 0.3 miles it's probably not going to be all that helpful. All the uphills in this race are much much shallower than the Apple Harvest 10 miler.

An interesting thing to note is that there's only a tiny advantage when it comes to a 1:35:20 10 miler over a 2:07:42 HM. So I wouldn't necessarily limit myself to a 10 miler if it's a non-ideal course or bad historical weather. Look for the best course and best weather, whether that's a 10 miler or HM race. Something with an early start time in the Midwest or Northeast.

Do you know anything about these @Jules76126 ?

http://ss3bm.com/course/T+D of 110-141 over the last 5 years during the race time on that date (7:30am start)

http://www.yukanrun.com/Half-Marathon-by-the-Sea.html10am start so probably a touch warmer with more sun time.

 

[Chasing Dopey]

My gut says, this is just the start of the price increases. I would expect all ticket prices to go up significantly as we get closer to the Star Wars opening.

As for Annual Passes, the theory is that Disney is trying to get more precise with crowd predictions so they can better price their single day tickets and measure capacity which will be used to manage expenses like labor needs, etc. The AP throws a variable into the mix they don't like. So many folks see the ridiculous increase as a way to weed out AP holders.

It certainly seems that way. And it makes sense. The demand is super high right now, and their supply is fixed, so to speak. But I do think with prices going up by 25%, they need to start providing a little extra. A lounge would be nice.

I'm a FL resident and live 100 miles from WDW, so I visit often enough over a year that some kind of AP has always made sense - for 25 years! WDW's price increases in recent years have escalated far faster than my income, though, so I've been downgrading my APs and am currently at a Silver AP level. Now even that's going up $50 - and it isn't even eligible for SWGE previews. My son and I aren't go-go-go park people: we can only take a few hours at a time in the parks before needing a long break - I can't see me ever being willing to spend the exorbitant prices for day tickets we'll only use a short while, so I guess my calculations when our APs expire will be based on whether or not we plan to go to the parks at all over the following year. Frankly, I'm kind of ready to jump ship and move to Universal Orlando APs for a year.

It used to be a solid 10 day trip, or two trips at least 3 and 4 days (with park hopper) would cover the cost of an AP. At the current prices, that's completely blown up. Take out park hopper and it gets even worse. I think @huskies90 is right that regular ticket increases are coming. We're good through April, and gets us to our 5th Dark Side (which was our primary goal). Beyond that, we'll really have to crunch the numbers.

 

[surfde22]

So should I cross this one of the list as a potential new POT race? There’s also one I’m looking at in MN, it’s described as mostly downhill. That’s pretty hard on the quads?
View attachment 410369

I've done this race a few times, and even used it as POT for 2017 Dopey. The weather is usually pretty good for a run this time of year, and the rolling hills are not particularly challenging. The only one I really struggled with was the one around mile 6. From there it is pretty flat until the major downhill at the end. Run Stillwater does a great job of organizing their races, and have always had pacers in the past if you're trying to hit a specific time. I would highly recommend this race. The shirts and medals are also pretty high quality if you're one to chase swag and bling.

 

[Bree]

As far as POT goes, that depends. It depends on what POT you currently have and what you're aiming for.

View attachment 410373

Looks like your 2018 Star Wars HM was 2:13 and per Strava your best performance. So that currently places you at an estimate of Corral D. The training plan we had just created for March 2019 (#295) was based on a 26:48 5k and 2:03 HM projection (a move-up from the Dopey plan). This would be a 1:31 10 mile projection. Your 2:13 actual result from 2018 suggests a 1:39 10 miler. To move out of Corral D, you're looking for a 1:35 10 miler or better (as an estimate). So yes, since you fall so close to the cut line a difference of 2 min (hilly course vs flat course) could be the difference between gaining a new corral or not. This is based on 2018 version of you around a 1:39 vs where we thought you'd be in March 2019 (1:31) prior to the injury.

So based on this, if the only goal is to try to move to Corral C, I would not suggest doing the Apple Harvest 10 miler.



The Log Run Boom Site 10 miler has a total elevation gain of 381 feet per the mapmyrun data. But what this race gains is exceeded by what it loses. A net loss of 250 feet. That hill at the end of the race is a 200 foot drop in 0.3 miles (or about 666 feet per mile). That is a pretty aggressive drop and that's where it's going to beat you up. So while on the surface it may appear like this net loss of 250 feet per mile will help, because it mostly occurs in a single drop covering 0.3 miles it's probably not going to be all that helpful. All the uphills in this race are much much shallower than the Apple Harvest 10 miler.

An interesting thing to note is that there's only a tiny advantage when it comes to a 1:35:20 10 miler over a 2:07:42 HM. So I wouldn't necessarily limit myself to a 10 miler if it's a non-ideal course or bad historical weather. Look for the best course and best weather, whether that's a 10 miler or HM race. Something with an early start time in the Midwest or Northeast.

Do you know anything about these @Jules76126 ?

http://ss3bm.com/course/T+D of 110-141 over the last 5 years during the race time on that date (7:30am start)

http://www.yukanrun.com/Half-Marathon-by-the-Sea.html10am start so probably a touch warmer with more sun time.

Yup, my fastest half is the 2:13 time from 2018 Dark Side. It’s good for Wine & Dine and Marathon weekend, but I don’t have anything else for future weekends. Well, I have a 10K, but I cant use that for the marathon distance.

There’s a half on October 6th on the New Hampshire coast. It starts at 8am and only has one blip of a hill. I know the area and it’s easy to travel to.



You know this means I’ll be hitting you up for a new plan?

 

[DopeyBadger]

Yup, my fastest half is the 2:13 time from 2018 Dark Side. It’s good for Wine & Dine and Marathon weekend, but I don’t have anything else for future weekends. Well, I have a 10K, but I cant use that for the marathon distance.

It'll still be good for Goofy 2020 through SW 2020 because it falls in their time windows.

There’s a half on October 6th on the New Hampshire coast. It starts at 8am and only has one blip of a hill. I know the area and it’s easy to travel to.

That looks like a good fast course. How's the wind there normally?

You know this means I’ll be hitting you up for a new plan?

 

[Jules76126]

It'll still be good for Goofy 2020 through SW 2020 because it falls in their time windows.

View attachment 410387

View attachment 410388



That looks like a good fast course. How's the wind there normally?

So I am actually hoping to run this race in October. I am signed up just hoping not to have a repeat of my Spring training injury. This is historically a fast course and very pretty right along the water. The wind can be an issue, especially if it rains. I know people who have run it in not so great weather and it was pretty windy. There is not a lot of cover since you are right on the seacoast.

There is a half in Manchester by the Sea on 9/22 as well if you wanted one in September. I know this is a very pretty course, but may be little further of a drive since you would have to head towards Gloucester and there is no easy way to get there from Worcester.

 

[SheHulk]

What's the feeling from AP folks on the price increase? Unless the regular ticket prices are also jacked up, they may have broken our calculations on annual passes.

We were actually at WDW when this was announced, and my APs expire beginning of July. We were going to gauge how we felt after this trip to decide whether to renew. This increase meant we are definitely not renewing right now. I might just buy 1-2 day tickets for marathon weekend if I even decide to go at that time. As others have said, when I have an active AP I find reasons to make more trips. I might have done marathon weekend and Star Wars weekend if I felt I had "free" park entry. But now we are going to cut down on how often we go in the next year or so for sure.

 

[camaker]

What's the feeling from AP folks on the price increase? Unless the regular ticket prices are also jacked up, they may have broken our calculations on annual passes.

I expect the daily prices to continue to shoot up, as well. As an out of state AP, it was very disheartening to see my price shoot up 25%. That's just ridiculous. Our APs just expired and we were debating whether to keep them or not, as my wife tends not to get her money's worth since she sits out most running trips. In the end we decided to go ahead and renew (literally first week of June). Now I have a hard time seeing us making the same renewal decision next year, given this increase.

 

[Bree]

Have I missed much?

I've been meaning to get back into the thread, but work has been distracting me, and injuries have kept me from consistent running until recently. I think I have that backwards. Isn't this supposed to distract me from work? ... Hey look! New emojis!

What's the feeling from AP folks on the price increase? Unless the regular ticket prices are also jacked up, they may have broken our calculations on annual passes.

I'm really mad about this increase. I can handle $10 here or there, but when it's $100+ it's making me really think about having a Platinum AP. I just renewed DD Platinum AP in May. My DH's Gold AP expires next month and I'm not even going to bother renewing his. Mine's up for renewal in December. I live 45 minutes away so I'm a local. It's like Disney is trying to push the locals out of the parks with this new pricing. I feel like because we don't spend as much money on souvenirs, after parties, etc. that they are price gouging us with AP pricing to make up for it. Orlando continues to be the most visited destination in the US with 75 million visitors in 2018. That's an insane amount of people and Disney is taking advantage of it. I don't believe their "crowd control" spiel at all for raising ticket prices. They know the economy is booming and they are taking advantage of it while they can.

 

[baxter24]

Add me to the list of who isn't happy about the AP price increase! I can't say much because I will most likely renew based on the trips we have planned. With Dopey and a family trip planned for 2020, it still made financial sense to do it.

Spacing when running: I try to get wide when I can and leave plenty of room for people as we cross paths if I can. Not a fan of those who don't even try to move over at all though when there is clearly room.

Life update: After having some continued pain in my ankle and shin and plantar fasciitis that won't go away, I went to a Foot and Ankle doc to make sure it wasn't anything as bad as a stress fracture. Fortunately, there are no signs of a stress fracture but the inflammation from the PF and what was apparently peroneal tendonitis was so bad that he has put me in a boot for two weeks and sidelined me. I'm bummed I have to wear the boot and can't do anything but I'd rather be sidelined now instead of later on in the year when Dopey training starts.

 

[TheHamm]

I'm really mad about this increase. I can handle $10 here or there, but when it's $100+ it's making me really think about having a Platinum AP. I just renewed DD Platinum AP in May. My DH's Gold AP expires next month and I'm not even going to bother renewing his. Mine's up for renewal in December. I live 45 minutes away so I'm a local. It's like Disney is trying to push the locals out of the parks with this new pricing. I feel like because we don't spend as much money on souvenirs, after parties, etc. that they are price gouging us with AP pricing to make up for it. Orlando continues to be the most visited destination in the US with 75 million visitors in 2018. That's an insane amount of people and Disney is taking advantage of it. I don't believe their "crowd control" spiel at all for raising ticket prices. They know the economy is booming and they are taking advantage of it while they can.

I agree this is not for crowd control, but because other divisions are not meeting profit margins and they believe they can squeeze more cash here. I would be curious to see the data I am sure they have as to profit between out of state AP holders who make multiple trips and spend on hotel and food vs. locals who come and spend less more frequently.

 

[avondale]

How horrible are these hills? I live in FL so the biggest hills I have are stepping on and off curbs.

View attachment 410312

I run some rolling hills where I live. If I was looking for a PR, I wouldn't like that hill at mile 8. If I was running it for fun, I wouldn't worry about it and expect to just adjust my pace a bit.

 

[avondale]

I have a tendency to go off the rails as well. It happened again yesterday. I may have stolen his badge he leaves at the entrance of the the track and dropped it in the women's restroom. And dropped a note to his VP and the safety department about his reckless behavior. I did not throw his beverage into the retaining pond as I also considered, mostly out of respect for the wildlife.
In August there will be a different division out on the track holding time trials for their department teams for the company competition. They too will be unreasonable. In the past I just stopped running the track at lunch, I'm not sure I am going to give in this time.

Now that is showing a pattern of behavior, which is a whole different ballgame in my mind. Once could be an accident of not paying attention. Twice to the same person becomes some sort of intent.

 

[Chasing Dopey]

I agree this is not for crowd control, but because other divisions are not meeting profit margins and they believe they can squeeze more cash here. I would be curious to see the data I am sure they have as to profit between out of state AP holders who make multiple trips and spend on hotel and food vs. locals who come and spend less more frequently.

I don't know. I think they do have a crowd problem in general. Switching to seasonal pricing worked like a charm, but unfortunately got rid of what was left of the 'low' seasons. (Those were the days.) I think the steady high popularity of Animal Kingdom well after the opening of Pandora was a genuine surprise.

I shouldn't assume anything, but SURELY they've done their due diligence on the AP prices, and know that renewals will suffer a noticeable hit at least until the daily pricing comes out. If the daily change is just as dramatic, they know it will affect behavior. Some people will opt out, while others will flock to cheaper accommodations to make up the difference. In the end, I'm sure their estimates put them ahead, even if it suppresses turnout. (Which it must.)

Now they need to work overtime to keep service and operation at a 5 Star level, because they aren't the only game in town anymore, and satisfaction gets more and more delicate as the price goes up. That will be interesting to watch.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I don't know. I think they do have a crowd problem in general.

There is no such thing as a crowd problem when you are in business unless the problem is that the crowds are not large enough. There is no way that Disney is purposely pricing people out. They are trying to find the line. Every year they raise rates across the board, and every year the crowds grow. They want to maximize profits. To do so they need to know that they are getting people to pay as much as they they are willing to pay. So you raise the rates until people growth slips, then you move backward a step and convince people that you are helping them out.

 

[SheHulk]

There is no such thing as a crowd problem when you are in business unless the problem is that the crowds are not large enough. There is no way that Disney is purposely pricing people out. They are trying to find the line. Every year they raise rates across the board, and every year the crowds grow. They want to maximize profits. To do so they need to know that they are getting people to pay as much as they they are willing to pay. So you raise the rates until people growth slips, then you move backward a step and convince people that you are helping them out.

I’m no business person but I was saying the exact same thing to DH on our flight home last night.

 

[lauraleh]

We just got our first ever annual passes two months ago. We had three trips planned within a year so it just made sense. It's probably likely this will be our only time to ever have APs. I don't necessarily blame them for raising the prices but I definitely have a limit of what I can and will pay.

 

[Chasing Dopey]

Ever work retail on Black Friday? Nobody can run at capacity for very long. There are costs associated with crowds, and diminishing returns are real.