Marathon Weekend 2019

[lhermiston]

My FIL has a terminal illness and we don't have much longer with him, so my emotional capacity for running is much different than usual right now. Some days I cannot wait to get out there and knock out some miles so my brain can have a darn break! Other days, it's all we can do to get our running shoes on.

I’m sorry to hear about your FIL.

 

[lahobbs4]

I’m sorry to hear about your FIL.

Thank you. Honestly, I don't know how we would make it if we didn't have such a healthy outlet such as running. Running has become so much more than just exercise for us, and I hope it is for so many of you guys on here! THAT is why it is addicting. Not because you are getting fit or losing weight or whatever... it's about the emotions that come from this sport.

(and now back to talking about how much beer you can drink after running 48.6 miles because that is also a perk, right?)

 

[roxymama]

SAFD: I'm starting week 7 of a 19 week DB plan and I have only missed one run (back in week 2). It will be so much easier to get the runs in now that it has cooled off! I also haven't even registered for the marathon yet!

ETA: I'm not sure I like today's running weather though. 3:30 is when I start running.

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I know you didn't ask, but that TooFaced chocolate bar pallette that is in your advertisements is one of my favorites. It smells really good.

My FIL has a terminal illness and we don't have much longer with him, so my emotional capacity for running is much different than usual right now. Some days I cannot wait to get out there and knock out some miles so my brain can have a darn break! Other days, it's all we can do to get our running shoes on.

So sorry for you and your family. I had/have personal experience with running while grieving. It can be overwhelming. But whatever you decide each day is the right thing. hugs.

Side question for @DopeyBadger What do you think the downfalls or cons of changing the rundisney POT cutoff to something slower. I know many rundisney people ONLY run disney. And character stops, etc, makes the general overall time of disney races slower in general. Think it is bc disney wants to be fairer to first time runners who may be faster than a 3:15 etc?

 

[roxymama]

Jose here is going to be running the half with me. Most little birdies will fly away but this guy will be here to stay.

 

[Jason Bryer]

So the Wine and Dine corrals came out last week and in reviewing the information it looks like the predictions still held for that race. So if you want to get a general idea for what corralling will look like for Marathon Weekend based on submitted POT or estimated finish:

POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

It still remains to be seen whether they will change anything, but it appears runDisney is content with moving from the "lots of corrals with set number of people model" to a "small number of corral based on a set POT and do mini-wave" system.

Wow! If this is true then I would be in coral B. So glad I pushed myself on the last half marathon to shave 16 minutes off my previous HM I was using for a POT.

Re: Nutrition. I have had good luck with Cliff gels. I particularly like the ones that have caffeine added. I started with a variety pack (https://www.amazon.com/Clif-Shot-En...TF8&qid=1539619975&sr=8-2&keywords=cliff+gell) but now just get the citrus with 25mg caffeine. I find that taking one at start then one every 6 miles works well for me. Took a lot of trial and error though and always carry one more than I think I'll need just in case. I use a belt with water bottle on on the very long runs (i.e. > 18 miles) I plan a stop for refill. Usually not a big deal given I tend to run in the city most of the time.

 

[TCB in FLA]

Thank you. Honestly, I don't know how we would make it if we didn't have such a healthy outlet such as running. Running has become so much more than just exercise for us, and I hope it is for so many of you guys on here! THAT is why it is addicting. Not because you are getting fit or losing weight or whatever... it's about the emotions that come from this sport.

(and now back to talking about how much beer you can drink after running 48.6 miles because that is also a perk, right?)

Prayers to you and your family. You are totally correct about the positive side effects of running. On the days you can hardly get out of the door, that’s usually when you need to go the most, even if it’s to do nothing more than shuffle along and sniffle. Or to block it all out and figure out what beer to drink first.

SAFD: my training was going according to plan until I got sidetracked by a last minute short Disney cruise I went on with DS15 for his fall break two weeks ago. I was having a great time, did the CC5k (DS should totally run more as he finished in 22 min yet only runs at soccer and when his parents drag him along to races), back to the dream to change and have some breakfast. While walking around trying to find the teen hideout, I tripped on the edge of a sidewalk while wearing flip-flops and twisted both ankles. Yep, both, because I’m an overachiever like that. That final day on the cruise was pretty lousy, the drive back to NC worse. I got myself to the orthopedist a few days later, nothing broken, tendons okay. About a week ago, I started back at Orangetheory in my matching ankle braces, able to do the strider to get some cardio. Graduated myself to a less restrictive brace, and went out for a short neighborhood run today to see how I feel. By “run,” I mean a :15/:30 Run/walk at a blistering 14:50 pace for just over a mile. I do think I could’ve gone longer/faster but wanted to see how I feel for the rest of the day. I’ve been doing some PT plus have an appointment with a runners’ PT on Thursday. I’ve missed two long runs, plus I’m going to have to miss a half I had planned to do with DH this weekend. I am trying to focus on things I can control (PT, getting cardio in, eating ok) instead of panicking about the training time being lost.

 

[jennamfeo]

EDIT: They have been claimed!

I'm sure everyone here is already thinking about costumes for the race(s) (see above at @roxymama's bird!).

If anyone is interested in a red or green sparkle athletic skirt (size medium, brand new in package) let me know! I have one of each and I'll send it to you! No charge, I won them a while back.

 

[JeffW]

I know it's WDW Marathon Weekend full swing of training time because it's sooooo cold out this morning, I'm not ready for tights & winter gear! We got 3 inches of heavy snow yesterday (some areas got more). It will warm up to 60s this week & melting fast, but yesterday was not normal for this time of year here. Power was knocked out & trees breaking for people due to heavy limbs since they still have leaves.

I hear you. We had a little over 6 inches here. I waited until noon to start my run so the temps would get into the upper 20's and the sidewalks would clear a bit Mid run it felt like a mid-December training run with the marathon right around the corner. I had to remind myself I still have 13 weeks left!

 

[roxymama]

I'm sure everyone here is already thinking about costumes for the race(s) (see above at @roxymama's bird!).

If anyone is interested in a red or green sparkle athletic skirt (size medium, brand new in package) let me know! I have one of each and I'll send it to you! No charge, I won them a while back.

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Internally wishes you had a bigger bootie. I like larges because I wear them hip hugger style with longer tops (since I am a bit tall, I like the added length that way.) I hope they find a happy home!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Side question for @DopeyBadger What do you think the downfalls or cons of changing the rundisney POT cutoff to something slower. I know many rundisney people ONLY run disney. And so character stops, etc, makes the general overall time of disney races slower in general. Think it is bc disney wants to be fairer to first time runners who may be faster than a 3:15 etc?

Tough one. In my opinion, I'd agree with you. It's because runDisney markets themselves to first timers and is much more open to all pace groups than some other large races can be. From the data, it would appear to attract a slower crowd on average than the general population of runners. So let's say they shifted the marathon requirements for example. Move it from 5:30 to 6:00 for required POT. One may guess that the issue may lie in that a significant number of runners in the 5:30+ range don't have any 10 miler or HM to submit. So if the POT requirement moves, then you continue to move them backwards. You could make the argument that they would then likely be practically in the same place as they would still be in the last three corrals (or last two?) with nearly 50-60% of the field there if a significant number did not have a submittable time. It would really depend on how they handled that back end, but with the current system the presumption would be they'd do mini-waves and call it a day. But in this case it would be a net positive for those in the 5:30 to 6:00 who have POT to show they can run that pace and thus would remain in the same position, but with less other runners starting around them.

But let's see if that's truly the case with an educated guess:



In 2018, the POT cutoff was 5:30. A total of 54.6% of the field did not have a POT and had an estimated finish slower than 5:30. Additionally, 16.6% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01-7:00 of 2018 corral system for Corral H). Thus, 38% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.



In 2017, the POT cutoff was 5:30. A total of 53.3% of the field did not have a POT and had an estimated finish slower than 5:30. Additionally, 28% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01+ Corral M). Thus, 25% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.



In 2015, the POT cutoff was 5:30? (they just asked for an estimated marathon finish time (no drop down) and a race that supported it). A total of 37.7% of the field did not have a POT and had an estimated finish slower than 5:30. Additionally, 30.2% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01+ Corral M). Thus, about 7.5% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.



In 2014, the POT cutoff was 5:30? (they just asked for an estimated marathon finish time and a race that supported it). The 5:30 value for a specific corral is an unknown because runDisney didn't release the data on the corral sheet like they do now (educated guess around 45%). But additionally, 37.6% of the field had an "estimated finish" of slower than 6:00 (based on 6:01+ Corral M). This was the first year of "more corrals, set number of people per corral". Thus, about 7.4% of the field fell between 5:30-6:00 estimated finish.

If I were to take the data as it's shown here, then my first educated guess would be that over the course of 5 years the population and distribution of runners has fluctuated with about 38-55% of the field not having a POT (or estimate) less than 5:30 marathon equivalent. The % of runners in the 6:00+ range is fairly consistent from 2014-2018 (37.6, 30.2, 28, 16.6%). However, there seems to be a sudden jump in 5:30-6:00 runners right around the POT cutoff (7.4, 7.5, 25, 38). Granted runDisney probably played a bit more with the wiggle room since the goal was to get a set number of runners per corral. But it would suggest that we've seen a double to tripling in runners in the 5:30-6:00 range with much less movement in the 6:00+ range.

One could contest that the onus of having a POT shouldn't be on runDisney. And thus if a runner wants to run a marathon and be corralled less than 6:00, then they should run a 10 miler or HM. Same could be said for the 5:30 cutoff as well.

So if they moved the cutoff from 5:30 to 6:00, it would be unlikely to hurt many runners from a standpoint of "position in the field". They may receive a lower letter in the alphabet and they'd probably have about 7.5% of the runners legitimately move past them into the 5:30-6:00 range. It would be beneficial to those with POT in the 5:30-6:00 ranges as it would reduce the potential of runners in front of them by 7.5-17.5% of the field. The runners it could hurt would be the new runners with no 10 miler or HM POT. For that, I would add in the possibility of POT as low as a 10k to accommodate the possible new runners. But conversely, I might consider including a higher race equivalency conversion to the marathon (it appears it is 1.08 right now, so maybe a 1.10 or 1.15 (which is average)). I'd do the same for the HM and open it up to a 5k POT but maybe have a larger race equivalency conversion on it. But most importantly, I'd then add the race equivalency calculator to the website allowing runners to make a more educated choice on POT submission. I'd include the rational behind it and why it may differ from other industry standard calculators. But if it were me, I'd just be transparent as possible and include all the possible information at every step.

So there are potential drawbacks, but I do think those could be mediated with a few other steps.

**ETA - I noticed an error. I originally attributed the 2018 corral G to 6:00+. But based on the 2018 corrals G was 5:30-6:00 with F being =5:30. This means 38% of the runners stated their finish time was between 5:30-6:00, which is a huge increase from 7.5, 7.5, 25%. A total of 15% of the field stated their estimated finish was exactly 5:30 (the fastest non-POT required time). This general trend shows what I was discussing earlier in that most non-POT runners are now noticing that choosing the fastest possible estimated finish yields a faster corral (makes sense though because that's the only information available to corral you on). I would then estimate that Corral F for the 2019 Disney Marathon (5:30-6:00 drop down) may contain as much as 38-45% of the entire field unless they change their system.

 

[TheHamm]

Tough one. In my opinion, I'd agree with you. It's because runDisney markets themselves to first timers and is much more open to all pace groups than some other large races can be. From the data, it would appear to attract a slower crowd on average than the general population of runners. So let's say they shifted the marathon requirements for example. Move it from 5:30 to 6:00 for required POT. One may guess that the issue may lie in that a significant number of runners in the 5:30+ range don't have any 10 miler or HM to submit. So if the POT requirement moves, then you continue to move them backwards. You could make the argument that they would then likely be practically in the same place as they would still be in the last three corrals (or last two?) with nearly 50-60% of the field there if a significant number did not have a submittable time. It would really depend on how they handled that back end, but with the current system the presumption would be they'd do mini-waves and call it a day. But in this case it would be a net positive for those in the 5:30 to 6:00 who have POT to show they can run that pace and thus would remain in the same position, but with less other runners starting around them.

....

So if they moved the cutoff from 5:30 to 6:00, it would be unlikely to hurt many runners from a standpoint of "position in the field". They may receive a lower letter in the alphabet and they'd probably have about 7.5% of the runners legitimately move past them into the 5:30-6:00 range. It would be beneficial to those with POT in the 5:30-6:00 ranges as it would reduce the potential of runners in front of them by 7.5-17.5% of the field. The runners it could hurt would be the new runners with no 10 miler or HM POT. For that, I would add in the possibility of POT as low as a 10k to accommodate the possible new runners. But conversely, I might consider including a higher race equivalency conversion to the marathon (it appears it is 1.08 right now, so maybe a 1.10 or 1.15 (which is average)). I'd do the same for the HM and open it up to a 5k POT but maybe have a larger race equivalency conversion on it. But most importantly, I'd then add the race equivalency calculator to the website allowing runners to make a more educated choice on POT submission. I'd include the rational behind it and why it may differ from other industry standard calculators. But if it were me, I'd just be transparent as possible and include all the possible information at every step.

So there are potential drawbacks, but I do think those could be mediated with a few other steps.

Presumably less questions about why someone is in J vs L and less volunteers (maybe?) needed on race day because there are less corrals to actually manage. Certainly doesn't make it the right or wrong choice, but merely what they seem to be gravitating towards at the moment.

I see only one downside to changing the POT cut off, and it has very little to do with me as a runner or consumer.
I think they could easily expand the POT cut off and I would love it. I would also be fine if they wanted to have a 5K POT for their 10K to spread out the field (it is totally lame that I can estimate my finish without POT and end up in B while someone running a challenge with a POT is in F). I do think rD is a business looking to make money and save on cost, so easier on their end is presents value to them.

 

[Jason Bryer]

Couple of disconnected thoughts about POT:

* It initially seemed strange to register for a marathon without having a half-marathon to submit for POT. However, Disney only allows races within the last 18 months. Last year I ran a HM 5 days after the cutoff. I wish they would open up the window either way, allow older races or move the cutoff date so that I can include a HM as part of my training (this year my local race was 2 days before the cutoff). Which makes me wonder: is there a group that click every POT link for the ~13,000 that are submitted? Seems like something that can easily be automated.
* I am surprised by how many people don't finish the marathon (about 20% in 2018). A quick glance at some of the other big marathons shows that their completion rates are > 95%. Admittedly, most have strict POT requirements with the exception of charity runners.
* For me, POT means I am running with people with roughly the same pace. I am amazed at many races people get close and are almost walking at the star. I dread "dodge the walker." I did two character stops in 2018, so that is not a big deal to me but understand for some it is. But if it is, then you shouldn't care about your time. And if you do care about line length, submit a POT.
* As a data scientist, I wonder if runDisney could model completion time more accurately if they collected race info from everyone. That is, if everyone had to submit at least a 5k after one year of 25,000 runners they could analyze the data and possibly get a good prediction of someone's finish time, or if you are going to finish at all.

 

[DopeyBadger]

So, FYI, but I did notice an error in my last long post and added an edit to it. But the summary of the edit is that the trend is showing that more people are realizing that a choice of faster estimated finish when POT isn't submittable yields a corral further up. Based on how they designed the registration system for 2019 (with three drop down choices of 5:30-6:00, 6:01-6:30, and 6:31-7:00, which is the first year for this for marathon weekend whereas it used to be a estimated time input) if they simply place them in a bucket like Wine and Dine 2018 appears to be, we could be looking at >38% of the field in Corral F based on how runners seem to gravitate towards the fastest selection. Seems to me at that point they'll have to go back to the random assignment into Corral F1 and F2 (breaking into two corrals) or they are going to have a massive corral on their hands. It will be interesting to see how they handle this one. My guess is one very large wave.

 

[FFigawi]

* As a data scientist, I wonder if runDisney could model completion time more accurately if they collected race info from everyone. That is, if everyone had to submit at least a 5k after one year of 25,000 runners they could analyze the data and possibly get a good prediction of someone's finish time, or if you are going to finish at all.

Nope, not a chance. With the amount of time people spend stopping for drinks, photos, and rides, there is no way to correlate someone's 5k time to their Disney finish time.

 

[DopeyBadger]

* It initially seemed strange to register for a marathon without having a half-marathon to submit for POT. However, Disney only allows races within the last 18 months. Last year I ran a HM 5 days after the cutoff. I wish they would open up the window either way, allow older races or move the cutoff date so that I can include a HM as part of my training (this year my local race was 2 days before the cutoff).

Definitely reasonable. To a point, I'd feel as if both are moveable.

My guess is there must be some cost reason involved as to why they don't move it closer to race day. I know they allow a few stragglers who register after the POT deadline to submit a POT and be corralled based on that (with the POT race occurring still before the POT deadline I believe). But maybe they've accounted for that in the cost.

I don't know why 18 months though. But that is a reasonable timeframe to have a reasonable assessment on current fitness for most runners. Extending beyond 18 months might open the window even more for people who don't quite match their POT abilities (if the goal intent is to have similarly paced runners around each other)? Tough to say definitively. You could easily make the argument in the opposite direction saying moving the deadline closer to race day would allow more accurate current fitness POT assessments.

I feel like the Chicago Marathon was a July/August deadline for an October race (2-3 months). So this would be about the same timeframe.

* I am surprised by how many people don't finish the marathon (about 20% in 2018). A quick glance at some of the other big marathons shows that their completion rates are > 95%. Admittedly, most have strict POT requirements with the exception of charity runners.

While there were 26000-27000 bibs the last few years, I do believe there is some wiggle in those numbers. I feel like Disney might have a bigger rate of runners not showing up to the start. @Keels I believe usually has a good way to figure out the number of runners that did not finish the race. Something about a SAG and runner tracking is in my memory here. I think it was lower than 20% though.

* As a data scientist, I wonder if runDisney could model completion time more accurately if they collected race info from everyone. That is, if everyone had to submit at least a 5k after one year of 25,000 runners they could analyze the data and possibly get a good prediction of someone's finish time, or if you are going to finish at all.

As related to POT, what would be gained from this? I think an individual's POT coming in is probably going to vary wildly to the results of the race itself specifically at Disney. Some choose to race all out, some choose to race with pictures, and others choose lots of pictures, alcohol, and riding theme park rides. If two people have a 18:00 min 5k, but one races the marathon in 2:58 and the other races in 6:00, how would you be able to differentiate them before the race started to make good use of a data set that shows this?

Previously, they had a system in place for something like this. You would submit a POT and an estimated finish time. If your POT said Corral A (3:30 marathon), but your estimated finish said Corral E (5:15 marathon), then they placed you in Corral E (5:00-5:30). The assumption here by runDisney being you stated you planned to run the race slower than your POT would suggest. Thus, we placed you with others of a similar overall pace. But some people didn't like that system, because while they may run a Corral E (5:00-5:30) time on race day, they wanted to start in Corral A (3:30 marathon) to have the shorter lines that ended up giving them the Corral E finish time. I'm sure it led to lots of emails and expo day requests for change in corral.

 

[camaker]

* For me, POT means I am running with people with roughly the same pace. I am amazed at many races people get close and are almost walking at the star. I dread "dodge the walker." I did two character stops in 2018, so that is not a big deal to me but understand for some it is. But if it is, then you shouldn't care about your time. And if you do care about line length, submit a POT.
* As a data scientist, I wonder if runDisney could model completion time more accurately if they collected race info from everyone. That is, if everyone had to submit at least a 5k after one year of 25,000 runners they could analyze the data and possibly get a good prediction of someone's finish time, or if you are going to finish at all.

A couple of thoughts you might want to keep in mind that differentiates Disney races from normal races when it comes to matching finishing times with PoTs (in addition to character stops):

The prevalence and emphasis on running challenges results many people taking early races significantly slower than normal to conserve energy for the multiple races. This may be intentional for the early races in the challenge or unintentional due to accumulating fatigue for the later race/races in the challenge.

The long lead times between registration and running Disney races don't just allow extra training time, they allow extra time for injury. I know I've run all three of my Marathon Weekends with either some form of injury or illness that has required me to significantly under perform my expected finish times based on my PoT.

I'm not discounting PoT cheaters, as we all know they're out there, but I just like to make sure people are aware that there are people with legit PoTs in those early corrals that are limited in pace or forced to run/walk for any number of valid reasons.

So, FYI, but I did notice an error in my last long post and added an edit to it. But the summary of the edit is that the trend is showing that more people are realizing that a choice of faster estimated finish when POT isn't submittable yields a corral further up. Based on how they designed the registration system for 2019 (with three drop down choices of 5:30-6:00, 6:01-6:30, and 6:31-7:00, which is the first year for this for marathon weekend whereas it used to be a estimated time input) if they simply place them in a bucket like Wine and Dine 2018 appears to be, we could be looking at >38% of the field in Corral F based on how runners seem to gravitate towards the fastest selection. Seems to me at that point they'll have to go back to the random assignment into Corral F1 and F2 (breaking into two corrals) or they are going to have a massive corral on their hands. It will be interesting to see how they handle this one. My guess is one very large wave.

Everybody with a PoT be prepared to RUN AWAY from the human tsunami breaking out of Corral F right behind us!!

 

[Jason Bryer]

Nope, not a chance. With the amount of time people spend stopping for drinks, photos, and rides, there is no way to correlate someone's 5k time to their Disney finish time.

I tend to disagree. I envision an initial model like this:

Finish_Time ~ POT + POT_distance + Age_of_POT + First_Marathon + Age + Gender + Num_of_Photos

I am assuming Disney is tagging all photos with a bib number since they are atomically added to your account. Of course there are confounding variables, but there is error in all models. And Num_of_Photos couldn't be used in the prediction model since we wouldn't know that ahead of time, but could estimate how much that matters (i.e. is it even statistically significant).

My issue is that for the roughly 50% of runners that don't submit a POT, their coral placement is random. Did I misremember that if I selected 5:30 or longer it didn't ask for an expected completion time this year? I think such a model would smooth out the starting corals. And moreover, someone may choose to run slower or stop more during a Disney marathon, but for me it is about the first 5k to 10k while the field spreads out.

 

[Jason Bryer]

I tend to disagree. I envision an initial model like this:

My issue is that for the roughly 50% of runners that don't submit a POT, their coral placement is random. Did I misremember that if I selected 5:30 or longer it didn't ask for an expected completion time this year? I think such a model would smooth out the starting corals. And moreover, someone may choose to run slower or stop more during a Disney marathon, but for me it is about the first 5k to 10k while the field spreads out.

Doh! I did misremember as @DopeyBadger indicated above. However, they are three self-reported buckets. I'd rather have real race data.

 

[rteetz]

No way they allow a 5K PoT for a Half or Full. Just doesn’t make sense.

 

[ZellyB]

I tend to disagree. I envision an initial model like this:

Finish_Time ~ POT + POT_distance + Age_of_POT + First_Marathon + Age + Gender + Num_of_Photos

I am assuming Disney is tagging all photos with a bib number since they are atomically added to your account. Of course there are confounding variables, but there is error in all models. And Num_of_Photos couldn't be used in the prediction model since we wouldn't know that ahead of time, but could estimate how much that matters (i.e. is it even statistically significant).

My issue is that for the roughly 50% of runners that don't submit a POT, their coral placement is random. Did I misremember that if I selected 5:30 or longer it didn't ask for an expected completion time this year? I think such a model would smooth out the starting corals. And moreover, someone may choose to run slower or stop more during a Disney marathon, but for me it is about the first 5k to 10k while the field spreads out.

While it's possible that Disney could do this, I just don't see any reason they would be motivated to put in that kind of data analysis effort. It really doesn't benefit Disney in any way and while there are always individuals who may not like the way they manage the corral system, that doesn't ever seem to be enough to stop the races from pulling in large attendance numbers. So, there seems little point in trying to be more precise than the current system affords.