Cases rising or dropping by you?

[Toolulu22]

Our number of sick and dying are finally down to low, low numbers. Our testing is ever Increasing. Yes and yes!!

 

[JaxDad]

I don't pay much attention to the rise in "cases," I'm more concerned about hospitalizations.
These have rapidly declined. I'm sure the media will need to focus on shark attacks now that people are hitting the beaches.

Nah. I’m sure they’ll stick with the COVID stories as long as they can.

 

[wilbret]

Nah. I’m sure they’ll stick with the COVID stories as long as they can.

COVID sharks, at least?

 

[gwynne]

I don't pay much attention to the rise in "cases," I'm more concerned about hospitalizations.
These have rapidly declined. I'm sure the media will need to focus on shark attacks now that people are hitting the beaches.

I pay attention to cases. I pay attention to hospitalizations.
We are experiencing a steady creep up.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I pay attention to cases. I pay attention to hospitalizations.
We are experiencing a steady creep up.

While it's perfectly ok to watch actual case counts, understand that for many areas they're going up because of an increase in testing. So it doesn't really tell you much. If hospitalizations are also going up, that's more concerning.

The whole idea behind flatten the curve was that we would all eventually get this. If cases are rising, but hospitalizations/deaths aren't, that's a good thing. It means this virus isn't as scary or deadly as once thought. That doesn't mean I'm advocating for throwing the doors open and going on with life, but it's important to look at what the numbers are really telling us.

 

[gwynne]

While it's perfectly ok to watch actual case counts, understand that for many areas they're going up because of an increase in testing. So it doesn't really tell you much. If hospitalizations are also going up, that's more concerning.

The whole idea behind flatten the curve was that we would all eventually get this. If cases are rising, but hospitalizations/deaths aren't, that's a good thing. It means this virus isn't as scary or deadly as once thought. That doesn't mean I'm advocating for throwing the doors open and going on with life, but it's important to look at what the numbers are really telling us.

Local officials have done a reasonable job in the past 5ish days of explaining. I wish they had spoken up sooner and more clearly about how this is becoming a big problem.
This isn't about "scary." It's about the steady decline in available hospital beds.
And.. our case curve has pretty consistently gone up over the past few weeks.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Local officials have done a reasonable job in the past 5ish days of explaining. I wish they had spoken up sooner and more clearly about how this is becoming a big problem.
This isn't about "scary." It's about the steady decline in available hospital beds.
And.. our case curve has pretty consistently gone up over the past few weeks.

As I said, increased hospitalizations are a concern and something to be taken seriously.

And although I quoted you, it's not directed at you, I get frustrated with people saying case numbers are increasing. Until there are zero cases, which seems unlikely, the total number of cases will always go up. It's the only direction they can go. It's number of new cases that matter and if those are increasing. But less so if they aren't resulting in more hospitalizations. I understand both are happening in your area though.

 

[godisney14]

The greater San Francisco region of 7+ million people has case count growing at a pace of about 1.5% daily while in shutdown. Works out to a doubling time of 46 days. Now that we’re about to slowly start reopening, I’m sure it’ll be much higher than daily 1.5% soon.

 

[disneychrista]

Today's news:

We have our first cases of community transmission.

ALL the positive cases have been from people who were ill not the increase in testing the county has been doing.

Our case count has doubled in the past 2 week (since Mother's Day).

 

[chicagoshannon]

Our percentage positive cases is down to about 6.5% from 10ish % 10 days ago. Our hospitalizations are WAY WAY down. We have about 3 hospitalizations a day now from about 85 daily a couple of weeks ago.

 

[manning]

Cases going up in DuPage county Illinois, However the percentage of deaths are going down

 

[AustinTink]

Cases going up in Texas. We are open for business in almost all aspects. Waterparks open tomorrow. Heaven help us.

 

[godisney14]

Our percentage positive cases is down to about 6.5% from 10ish % 10 days ago. Our hospitalizations are WAY WAY down. We have about 3 hospitalizations a day now from about 85 daily a couple of weeks ago.

85 NEW hospitalizations PER day? Did your area not run out of room? With an avg hospitalization stay of 1 week plus, how did your hospitals manage all those inpatients?
Now down to 3 new hospitalizations per day?

 

[godisney14]

Cases going up in DuPage county Illinois, However the percentage of deaths are going down

Deaths lag cases by a week or two. Will be interesting when you check back in a couple weeks.

 

[friedela]

Our province has been on the decline in cases for a couple weeks now. We are averaging about 20 new cases a day, 0-2 deaths daily. Schools are still closed though, we JUST opened playgrounds again and non-essential businesses such as hair salons, retail, sit-down restaurants etc are slowly beginning to open. I feel like our province/country is being uber cautious though. We can finally get together with people in groups of over 15 now (no more than 50) but it has to be outside. Our healthcare system has never once been overwhelmed or anywhere near overwhelmed, ICU admissions have remained very low. Total deaths in our entire province of 4.4 million has been 143.

 

[mousefan73]

In Germany can still report figures are looking great. Clear downward trend.

We seem to have though a few larger outbreaks that are contained. For example meatpacking plants where most of the workers are the ones that live together in community housing.

interesting though is that they have determined 200 new cases from a single church event that happened in Frankfurt on May 10th. Here are some key facts that you can drive your own conclusions from:
1. church members were mainly larger families ( it was a Baptist community of very large families ) about five people and more. the spread was able to continue to spread within the household after church.
2. The church took the following measures: hand disinfectant, separate entrance and exits for traffic flow, and they were able to supposedly maintain the 6 foot social distancing inside.
3. BUT !! Church management also confirmed that inside nobody was wearing masks and! There was a lot of singing.

This just confirms my conclusion that mask wearing especially indoors is very vital in containing the spread. This is probably the fourth church event that I have read That involved choir/ church Singing and a major outbreak happened afterwards.

More and more the message is actually changing in Germany- that the 6 foot social distancing does not really help ( aerosol spread is further and lingers in larger volumes - longer Indoors) that wearing masks indoors in a contained space , with low air circulation or the wrong kind of air circulation is actually more important. And then also the transmission through touch is not so high. You can kind of conclude this based on the fact the church did utilize hand disinfectant.

My personal opinion is that counties - governments really need to track how many new cases happen and where outbreaks are once things such as indoor dining, movies, concerts or any type of indoor event with many people restart. Especially with no mask policies. My gut feeling as this might turn things back in the wrong direction unfortunately as I really do miss these things. Right now many areas including Germany are lucky and that most activities, dining are all being done outdoors since we have just had the most awesome weather the past few months. Once the weather changes and people are no longer able to be outside as much and move towards the indoors I will start to get worried.

 

[creativeamanda]

I had to look both in the state I live in and the state next to me (I'm five miles from the state line).

Both states have had an overall downward trend in the number of cases per day reported with some spikes that coincide with increases in testing. The local regional hospital and university medical center are doing a lot of research in blood plasma of COVID19 patients and so there is a big push for testing for potential asymptomatic cases, so the specific region I am in has had an increase because of that. There was also an increase in cases coming from a local meat processing plant.

For state One: overall, the downward trend has remained consistent for deaths and there is an estimated 89% recovery rate of all patients, so out of the 11,000 ish in the state that initially have tested positive, around 500 have died, and around 9800 have recovered, leaving between 700-750 active cases. Altogether, there are around 50 ICU beds use in the state, and 350 available. There are less than 500 occupied hospital beds in the state and 4700 beds available. Elective surgeries have not been reinitiated. State one is in Phase 2 of reopening.

For state Two: overall, the downward trend has remained consistent for deaths and there is an estimated 61% recovery rate of all patients, so out of the 27,000 ish in the state that initially have tested positive, around 850 have died, and around 16500 have recovered, leaving between 9600 active cases. Altogether, there are around 522 out of 3223 ICU beds available. There are 4346 hospital beds out of 18990 available. Elective surgeries have been reinitiated in state two. This state is in phase 1 of reopening.

 

[disneychrista]

One article said California as a whole has gone up 25% in the past two weeks. The county south of me has 200+ new cases or a 66% jump. As I said above we are at a 100% increase. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t panicking a bit as I leave (at 6am) to do my bi-weekly shopping.

 

[chicagoshannon]

85 NEW hospitalizations PER day? Did your area not run out of room? With an avg hospitalization stay of 1 week plus, how did your hospitals manage all those inpatients?
Now down to 3 new hospitalizations per day?

yes that's what the graph shows. I'm in Cook County which is HUGE. I could be reading the graph incorrectly and it's 85 total hospitalization and now we're down to 3 total hospitalizations but that seems a bit low to me. Either way hospitalizations are WAY down from what they were a month ago. Cases are still rising but the percentage is declining. This is due to more testing.

 

[MamaLema]

Still fighting the beast in Ontario