!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DCL Fleet Expansion in 2011 & 2012 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[awoltoday]

Just to clarify, as I missed the FISCAL calendar references. Disney's fiscal year does not match the calendar year.

Tom Staggs @ 1:28:15 (call started at 58:44?)

...two new cruise ships that get delivered starting the end of 2010, calendar 2010,...

at 1:37:23 into the call Bob Iger said

The first question: the first of the two cruise ships that we're building will come online 'round the second quarter fiscal 2011. So, the very end of calendar 2010, the beginning of calendar 2011.

Staggs interrupted

that will be in service in the early part of the 2011 calendar year

Iger continued

So, we won't really get revenue from it until 2011 calendar year, but early in the year...

at 1:38:30 more Iger

They are gorgeous. We'll reveal their designs sometime in the fall. Substantially larger as we've talked about. and real state of the art on a number of different fronts. We are very excited about them. They are very, very unique.

 

[mkmommy]

If I were Disney, I would be pushing HARD to get the ship in service for the holidays, 2010. This is getting interesting.

Not liking the new website very much!!??

Jodie

I agree and I would not be be surprised if the Dec 30 2010 Wonder cruise gets changed to a Panama Canal cruise. I find it interesting that both the Wonder and the Magic are in St Marten Jan 2 2011. Does anyone have a Crystal ball that shows the Dream in St Marten Jan 2 also.

 

[mmouse37]

I am getting excited about the news....can't wait until they have the designs released!!!

MJ

 

[dizzi]

joining

 

[HappyGrumpy]

I am so freakin excited!!!

When will they confirm the confirm the manifest for those sailing on the MV?

 

[Andrew DEREK UK]

And Karl your very fast back as well, now think of me, 12 days time, with a 7 night wine package all paid for in advance, wouldn't you like to join me at my table? to enjoy a glass or three???
But to answer, I have various screens open on various websites, and been live for the last hour or so, offline in a few mins.
I get to play with a branch new fibre optic connection from sometime tomorrow! off old ADSL, So can answer even quicker.

well i love join ya all but i am off to hawaii for 10 days or so of sun and sand and volcanoes... along with wine... in 9 days!
i would love to have fibre at home. only cable right now. Verizon says someday oh 50 MBs
karl

Karl Well enjoy Hawaii, ( show off ) That will be very nice, but on the Magic there is a drink with your name on it!

The fibre optic should be good, I had a crash whilst writing this, so this is the second time I am posting this, the network slows and my PC freezes, then I have to reboot, I have the option of 50mbs but have gone for a lower package as I cannot see me using that.

I'll post snippets from the transcript when they are posted. But, I think my notes are fairly accurate. It IS hard to stay awake through these earnings calls! All the info that I've seen you post still seems to be accurate. I am a little surprised though that "late 2010" came up at all - first from Senior VP/CFO Staggs, I think, and then again from ... Iger? I don't recognize these guys by voice and it's not always clear to me who is talking.

There should be very little time between delivery and in service. Again, the Celebrity Equinox was just delivered on July 16th and will start its first cruise on July 31st. The times you have posted are still looking good this far out, though.

BTW, in the press release, it mentioned that they made "a construction progress payment on two new cruise ships." That is not terribly significant except that it marks another small step and closer to completion.

Can you elaborate on this? What info is this? Thanks!

Jodie

Just to clarify, as I missed the FISCAL calendar references. Disney's fiscal year does not match the calendar year.

Tom Staggs @ 1:28:15 (call started at 58:44?)


at 1:37:23 into the call Bob Iger said


Staggs interrupted


Iger continued


at 1:38:30 more Iger

The timescales fit perfectly with the ones I have posted for the last year or so. Taking 'delivery' in late 2010, thats in Germany, then shake down and show off via various ports of call for maximum PR, across the Atlantic to Port Canaveral.

Coming into service late January or early February was my understanding, maybe like WDW, a 'soft opening' before a formal maiden voyage.

I can see the three ships in PC for a big party before the Wonder goes to the west coast USA.


Re: Europe 2012.

There has been a stream of reports that the Magic will come back to Barcelona and Dover in 2012, the England bit will be just before the London Olympics that start in July 2012. The reason that the Magic didn't go to the West coast and be home ported there, is it is planed to base in Europe from 2012, it cannot be in two places at a time so the Wonder was the West coast option.


We will see more Baltic type cruises they have sold very very well.

Back to 2011, expect some more news on the 'Caribbean' longer trips in the Winter, more ports of call, also still a little bit more on LA to come for the Wonder.

 

[CRSNDSNY]

Oooh, that's an interesting thought! Great photo op!

I find it interesting that both the Wonder and the Magic are in St Marten Jan 2 2011. Does anyone have a Crystal ball that shows the Dream in St Marten Jan 2 also.

 

[Andrew DEREK UK]

Oooh, that's an interesting thought! Great photo op!

Can it hold three ships???

 

[CRSNDSNY]

I wouldn't think it could docked, but having to tender in there might be a possibility, right?

 

[awoltoday]

As promised, SeekingAlpha has posted the transcript of the conference call at http://seekingalpha.com/article/152...-end-6-27-09-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1 . Emphasis added is MINE.

Thomas O. Staggs

Sure. So with regard to capital, I think the best way to think about it is in terms of the projects that we have in the pipeline that will impact sort of what we are spending and the biggest user of capital in the company is clearly parks and resorts and that’s where the biggest ongoing projects are. We’ve got two new cruise ships that get delivered starting at the end of calendar 2010. The expansion of Disney California Adventure, the expansion of Hong Kong that we talked about, just signed and has been detailed in the Q this quarter. Of course, our resort in Hawaii and those are the biggest pieces that sort of are over and above the normal pattern of our capital expenditures for the parks.

You know --

<<<<SNIP>>>>

Robert A. Iger
The first question, the first of the two cruise ships that we are building will come online around the second quarter of fiscal 2011, so the very end of calendar 2010, beginning of calendar 2011.

Thomas O. Staggs

Yeah, it will be in service in the early part of the 2011 calendar year.

Robert A. Iger

So we won't really get revenue from it until 2011 calendar year but early in the year and you will see a ramp-up of costs in that business associated with both building but also associated with operating that will actually come before we launch what will be our third ship.

Thomas O. Staggs

Yeah, to Bob’s point -- and the second ship is fiscal 2012, so the cost builds up, it doesn’t take long to get the ships up and running, in service and producing revenue, obviously, but there is some ramp-up in costs. And the bulk of the capital hits in the year of delivery, so --

Robert A. Iger

Right, and our target that we’ve had, this double-digit returns on capital in the two ships and we believe that we will be able to sustain that in the two ships that we are building.

They are gorgeous and we will reveal their design sometime in the fall. Substantially larger, as we’ve talked about, and real state-of-the-art on a number of different fronts and we are very excited about them. They will be very, very unique.

David Bank - RBC Capital Markets

I think you should host a party for the analysts on the ships. That would be a good idea.

Robert A. Iger

Well, if you’d like, the first crossing will be a mid-winter crossing in the North Atlantic. One thing we know is you will be able to save on sunscreen.

Can it hold three ships???

They are currently expanding the port to accommodate two more post-panamax ships like the RCCL Genesis class. The work is supposed be done by the end of this year.

Glad to see more people jumping on my Sunday, January 02, 2011 bandwagon! That would be quite a pirate party with 3 ships!

 

[eskimoinparadise]

I think you've been drinking too much Mountain Dew Code Red and reading travel agent magazines too much. Everything is happening earlier than I was expecting.

The meyer-werft website has a lot of information buried behind what you see on the screen. If you dig far enough (and can find someone who can translate German), you can get a fairly accurate picture of the length of time it takes for their build process (first steel cutting to float out) for these post-panamax ships. Based on their track record of past builds, they should be conveying the Dream to Disney between May15 and June 15, 2011

 

[Grandma4ever]

The meyer-werft website has a lot of information buried behind what you see on the screen. If you dig far enough (and can find someone who can translate German), you can get a fairly accurate picture of the length of time it takes for their build process (first steel cutting to float out) for these post-panamax ships. Based on their track record of past builds, they should be conveying the Dream to Disney between May15 and June 15, 2011

The thought around here is that the ship will be done early and then put into service around Feb 2011. Andrew has been correct so far so I am banking on his best guess at this point. Thanks Andrew.

 

[gismo1554]

Can it hold three ships???

Depends how big the expansions going to be cause they are redoing it to accomadate the new ships anyway aren't they?

 

[mmouse37]

Here is a picture of the new dock being built in St. Maarten.

http://www.panoramio.com/photo/23149932

MJ

 

[pillow]

Here is a picture of the new dock being built in St. Maarten.

http://www.panoramio.com/photo/23149932

MJ

I just want to jump through the screen into that blue water!! Our cruise is in November - am counting the days!

Jodie

 

[awoltoday]

The meyer-werft website has a lot of information buried behind what you see on the screen. If you dig far enough (and can find someone who can translate German), you can get a fairly accurate picture of the length of time it takes for their build process (first steel cutting to float out) for these post-panamax ships. Based on their track record of past builds, they should be conveying the Dream to Disney between May15 and June 15, 2011

Unfortunately, none of their prior performance currently applies to their new builds. I think that maybe what you missed in your estimates is that Meyer Werft has significantly changed their build process and they have not delivered any ships since they changed their build process. Much like the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results... especially after the build process is changed this much. You might look for earlier posts, by myself and others, in this thread where the process has been explained.

Besides, the CEO and the CFO of Disney just said they expect the first ship in 2010 and in service early in 2011. Don't you think they have a pretty good handle on their investment?

Depends how big the expansions going to be cause they are redoing it to accomadate the new ships anyway aren't they?

Apparently I'm invisible again I recently posted that the new dock will accommodate two post-panamax ships like the RCCL Genesis class. The Genesis class, or Oasis class, ships are 220,000 GT. These are about 20m longer than the new Disney ships will be. The new dock is supposed to be 445m in length - Disney Dream is supposed to be around 340m long.

There are more pictures and information at http://www.portofstmaarten.com/ website.

 

[Andrew DEREK UK]

The thought around here is that the ship will be done early and then put into service around Feb 2011. Andrew has been correct so far so I am banking on his best guess at this point. Thanks Andrew.

Depends how big the expansions going to be cause they are redoing it to accomadate the new ships anyway aren't they?

QUOTE FROM AWOLTODAY

Robert A. Iger
The first question, the first of the two cruise ships that we are building will come online around the second quarter of fiscal 2011, so the very end of calendar 2010, beginning of calendar 2011.

Thomas O. Staggs

Yeah, it will be in service in the early part of the 2011 calendar year.

What the bosses have said from their own mouths, I have said Feb 2011 all along, 'early 2011 service' fits that. If you further take delivery is 'very end of 2010''.

 

[Luckymommyx2]

Re: Europe 2012.

...We will see more Baltic type cruises they have sold very very well.

Back to 2011, expect some more news on the 'Caribbean' longer trips in the Winter, more ports of call, also still a little bit more on LA to come for the Wonder.

I am particularly excited about the potential for more Baltic cruises from DCL!!! I was so disappointed we couldn't "swing" it this go around but hopefully things will pick up enough to take advantage of it the next time.

I can't wait to see the new designs when they're released!

 

[eskimoinparadise]

Unfortunately, none of their prior performance currently applies to their new builds. I think that maybe what you missed in your estimates is that Meyer Werft has significantly changed their build process and they have not delivered any ships since they changed their build process. Much like the stock market, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results... especially after the build process is changed this much. You might look for earlier posts, by myself and others, in this thread where the process has been explained.

Actually, the Equinox is the second Celebrity post-panamax ship (and the fourth cruise liner overall) built by Meyer-Werft using their computerized "lego block" process - the first was the Solstice (the other two were AIDA liners). They are approximately the same size and tonnage as the two new DCL ships, and they took an average of 26 months and 10 days from first steel cutting to conveyance. These timings are entirely consistent with M-W's own statements that the process cuts the build time to approximately two years.

If you roll forward from the date of the first steel cutting of the Dream, you get June 15, 2011. If you factor in an experience curve, you get closer to May 15.

Besides, the CEO and the CFO of Disney just said they expect the first ship in 2010 and in service early in 2011. Don't you think they have a pretty good handle on their investment?

Given the overall finncial performance that the company articulated at that analyst briefing, and factoring in the reality that competitors in the cruise industry are cancelling or postponing newbuilds in the face of the current economic doldrums, it is not at all surprising that they would squeeze that balloon. The earlier they can portray the arrival of the ships the less bludgeoning they get from the industry press. What doesn't get voiced in these types of briefing conference calls is the "safe harbor" statement that management can't be held accountable for anything they say that represents future performance.

I'll stick to my predictions.

 

[awoltoday]

Actually, the Equinox is the second Celebrity post-panamax ship (and the fourth cruise liner overall) built by Meyer-Werft using their computerized "lego block" process - the first was the Solstice (the other two were AIDA liners). They are approximately the same size and tonnage as the two new DCL ships, and they took an average of 26 months and 10 days from first steel cutting to conveyance. These timings are entirely consistent with M-W's own statements that the process cuts the build time to approximately two years.

If you roll forward from the date of the first steel cutting of the Dream, you get June 15, 2011. If you factor in an experience curve, you get closer to May 15.



Given the overall finncial performance that the company articulated at that analyst briefing, and factoring in the reality that competitors in the cruise industry are cancelling or postponing newbuilds in the face of the current economic doldrums, it is not at all surprising that they would squeeze that balloon. The earlier they can portray the arrival of the ships the less bludgeoning they get from the industry press. What doesn't get voiced in these types of briefing conference calls is the "safe harbor" statement that management can't be held accountable for anything they say that represents future performance.

I'll stick to my predictions.

I can respect that. Stick to your guns.

I wasn't talking about the "lego block" process. I was talking about the Tandem Construction Method. According to http://www.dieselduck.net/library/07 stats/2008 Papenborg Shipyard Pax Stats.pdf, they expect to increase productivity and reduce production times enough to produce two post-panamax ships and one panamax ship PER YEAR. This method required extending building dock II by 120m and that construction was completed in December of 2008. Celebrity Eclipse is the first ship to be built like this at Meyer Werft. The keel was laid Jan 23, 2009 and its maiden voyage is currently scheduled for April 29th, 2010.

I'm also not following your math. Celebrity Solstice (s.675) started production on 10/11/2006. The keel was laid 3/17/2007, undocked 8/10/2008, conveyed the river Ems on 9/29/2008, and was delivered 11/15/2008. I get 766 days for that. Similarly, I come up with 679 days for Celebrity Equinox (9/6/2007, 8/6/2008, 6/6/2009, 6/19/2009, and 7/16/2009). The average of those two numbers is less than two years for start of production (first steel cutting) to delivery. If you add the WORST of those numbers, from Solstice, to the March 2nd, 2009 start of production, you get a delivery date of April 7th, 2011.