Poll: Guess what the first Riviera resale contracts listing price

[crvetter]

Yes but most buy BWV points knowing they CAN stay somewhere else. You pay a premium for that. Even if you don’t intend to stay somewhere else. That flexibility matters.

Sure but I’m not sure the DVC reservation component is worth the $70+ a point you are assigning to it. Especially today when your only real choices to move at 7 months is SSR for a good chunk of the time.

I would also like to add my bigger point was eventually Riviera will be the only viable game in town because BWV/BCV will begin to become worthless especially if people keep fully stripping their contracts. Unless Disney adds another resort between HS and Epcot but any new resort will have the same restrictions so that’s a wash

 

[stewart715]

Sure but I’m not sure the DVC reservation component is with the $70+ a point you are assigning to it. Especially today when your only real choices to move at 7 months is SSR for a good chunk of the time.

I guess I disagree. All other contracts have access to 93% of DVC resorts. DRR contracts will have access to 6%. Unless DRR is an absolute home run like VGF/BWV/BCV, I do think that reservation component is worth at least $70. Consider a prospective buyer: “Well I like Riviera, but for the same price or less I can stay anywhere I want?” Most prospective buyers unfortunately ignore the warning that booking premium resorts at 7 months is sometimes impossible.

 

[crvetter]

I guess I disagree. All other contracts have access to 93% of DVC resorts. DRR contracts will have access to 6%. Unless DRR is an absolute home run like VGF/BWV/BCV, I do think that reservation component is worth at least $70. Consider a prospective buyer: “Well I like Riviera, but for the same price or less I can stay anywhere I want?” Most prospective buyers unfortunately ignore the warning that booking premium resorts at 7 months is sometimes impossible.

Agreed but these are resale buyers who tend to be a bit more informed on the 7 month issue, and I think the resale agents will be certainly grooming people to know this. Because higher prices for them means more money so they have an incentive to let people know issues exist at 7 months with switching.

Also eventually if people want an Epcot/HS resort they simply will have no choice. The switching at 7 months will only be getting them MK resorts and SSR/AK/OKW eventually too once 2042 gets closer and closer. So people could start to question the whole site for 10 years (assuming they buy in 10) I can trade into those resorts but after I’m 100% shut out of Epcot.

 

[stewart715]

Agreed but these are resale buyers who tend to be a bit more informed on the 7 month issue, and I think the resale agents will be certainly grooming people to know this. Because higher prices for them means more money so they have an incentive to let people know issues exist at 7 months with switching.

True, but I still think people ignore it. We need to take our thinking away from the opinions entirely in this conversation though: the average DISBoards user has a much more informed opinion and set of knowledge on DVC and are essentially DVC power members, for the most part. They are able to manage multiple home resorts and use years. That isn't the average new DVC buyer. That's why VB and HH contracts are still being sold - people who don't consider the difference in dues and want to book at WDW at 7 months for a ridiculously cheap set of points.

Again, this is all speculative because it really depends on what DRR turns out to be. If it turns out to be an SSR/OKW type experience, it will sell for $50-75 a point. If it's a BLT/PVB experience, $100 a point. If it's a GFV/BWV/BCV experience, $150 a point. It really all depends on what DRR even is and we really have no idea. To me, it just feels removed in comparison to the other premium DVC resorts on property and I just don't know that the Skyliner is going to fix that. Especially with the slew of people coming from All Star resorts - there are a lot of people at that resort. What will the wait times be like? We just really have to wait to find out.

 

[anomamatt]

Again, this is all speculative because it really depends on what DRR turns out to be. If it turns out to be an SSR/OKW type experience, it will sell for $50-75 a point. If it's a BLT/PVB experience, $100 a point. If it's a GFV/BWV/BCV experience, $150 a point.

This seems reasonable. Except as I said before, selling at $50-75 would be insanity -- versus renting at that point. But if RVA is as "desirable" as SSR, sure, it's value might be there. (I doubt that happens, but predicting the future is hard).

 

[stewart715]

This seems reasonable. Except as I said before, selling at $50-75 would be insanity -- versus renting at that point. But if RVA is as "desirable" as SSR, sure, it's value might be there. (I doubt that happens, but predicting the future is hard).

True but the more I think about this, the more I think it has less than every other DVC resort on property except OKW. Take a look at a satellite photo of the DRR building location. It is essentially on it's own little island. No Disney Springs to walk to (which SSR has). No parks to walk to. No restaurants to walk to. You are 100% reliant on the Skyliner that we have no idea what the experience will be like. Ultimately, DRR people will be heading to the Boardwalk via the Skyliner. Will that feel cumbersome? It sure won't be as convenient as stepping out of BWV down to Jellyrolls. It ultimately could feel like an auxiliary BWV. This is clearly very opinionated though and will rely on the cumulative opinion of the market. For me, I have no desire to stay at DRR. Then again, I have no desire to stay at BLT and people are obsessed with that place. So, I am also just one person.

 

[wnielsen1]

I don't subscribe to the theory that Disney wants to kill resale. I subscribe to the theory that they want to make direct purchases compelling and they want a piece of the action on resale. How do they do that:

1. You want to trade out your Riviera resale points to another DVC resort at 7 months? You can now do that, we'll just charge you this FEE when you make the reservation.
2. You want to permanently qualify your points? You can do that, we'll just charge you this one-time LARGE FEE.
3. You want to permanently qualify your points and you don't want to pay this large fee? You can do that, just BUY 200 POINTS DIRECT at Reflections and we'll qualify 200 points at Riviera.

 

[anomamatt]

No parks to walk to. ... You are 100% reliant on the Skyliner that we have no idea what the experience will be like.

But neither does VGF. And being reliant on the monorail is currently problematic and only getting worse with time.

 

[RamblinWreck]

You need an entire market to agree with you. No disrespect, but you’re one person. People are still buying BWV direct for $190 a point but yet the resale market sits $125-135. Direct benefits aren’t worth $60-70pp. Outliers exist, but they certainly can’t drive a market. And to say you’re willing to pay $100pp to stay at a resort (and only that resort) that isn’t even finished being built and have no idea what the experience will be like whether it be transportation (skyliner) or dining is a bit premature, no?

I'd take that risk.

I'd probably pay as much as $140 pp for the right contract.

 

[stewart715]

But neither does VGF. And being reliant on the monorail is currently problematic and only getting worse with time.

Not really a good comparison. It's not totally reliant on the monorail. There is also a 5-7 min ferry to MK. Not to mention the Grand Floridian is a 5 star resort with views of Cinderella Castle.

 

[Drewferin]

Interesting data from the poll. Over 75% of us more knowledgeable DVCers think Riviera will hit the resale market above $125 pp, and over 50% think over $150 pp. With incentives running this isn't a huge hit to value until there is more resale Riviera supply to match resale demand.

 

[stewart715]

Interesting data from the poll. Over 75% of us more knowledgeable DVCers think Riviera will hit the resale market above $125 pp, and over 50% think over $150 pp. With incentives running this isn't a huge hit to value until there is more resale Riviera supply to match resale demand.

How people think DRR will sell to a similar price as CCV is beyond me. It economically makes zero sense. This honestly isn't that hard. If you want to get the real value, take $165 as a base price (approx. CCV and PVB) and then add a multiplier for % of reservations that are booked at home resort only. How many CCV/PVB owners book only at CCV and PVB? My guess is not 100% or even 80%. Say it's 75%, then $125 may make sense for DRR. DRR would sell for a little over $150 if not for restrictions. With restrictions, no chance.

 

[Bing Showei]

How people think DDR will sell to a similar price as CCV is beyond me. It economically makes zero sense. This honestly isn't that hard. If you want to get the real value, take $165 as a base price (approx. CCV and PVB) and then add a multiplier for % of reservations that are booked at home resort only. How many CCV/PVB owners book only at CCV and PVB? My guess is not 100% or even 80%. Say it's 75%, then $125 may make sense for DDR. DDR would sell for a little over $150 if not for restrictions. With restrictions, no chance.

Your numbers are nonsensical. How do you discount a price down to $0 for the value of a property if you use that to stay elsewhere? You're still staying somewhere, in the case of Riviera, you'll be staying at Riviera. It's not as if when an owner chooses not to stay at Riviera, those points magically disappear into the ether and represent $0 value. Your assignment of value based on percent stay is illogical. It should take into account what options are available as an alternative.

And in terms of the value of being able to stay elsewhere? At 7 months, those CCV points are worth exactly whatever value you would assign to OKW. So how would that factor into your calculus? Or suppose you're looking at rentals, another alternative to not staying at your home site. In that case the argument could be made that Riviera will likely have far greater buying power than CCV on the rental market.

When it comes down to it, seasoned DVCers are onto something when they preach "buy where you don't mind staying," most have points at multiple sites based on where they want to stay. 0 to 7-month has changed a lot over the past 14 years since SSR was introduced, and the trend does not suggest that buying more points than you plan to use at your home resort makes sense, whether it's CCV or Riviera.

 

[stewart715]

Your numbers are nonsensical. How do you discount a price down to $0 for the value of a property if you use that to stay elsewhere? You're still staying somewhere, in the case of Riviera, you'll be staying at Riviera. It's not as if when an owner chooses not to stay at Riviera, those points magically disappear into the ether and represent $0 value. Your assignment of value based on percent stay is illogical. It should take into account what options are available as an alternative.

And in terms of the value of being able to stay elsewhere? At 7 months, those CCV points are worth exactly whatever value you would assign to OKW. So how would that factor into your calculus. Or suppose you're looking at rentals, another alternative to not staying at your home site. In that case the argument could be made that Riviera will likely have far greater buying power than CCV on the rental market.

When it comes down to it, seasoned DVCers are onto something when they preach "buy where you don't mind staying," most have points at multiple sites based on where they want to stay. 0 to 7-month has changed a lot over the past 14 years since SSR was introduced, and the trend does not suggest that buying more points than you plan to use at your home resort makes sense, whether it's CCV or Riviera.

This makes absolutely no sense. Most DVC buyers are not seasoned buyers. For arguments sake, let’s say CCV and DRR are the same exact resort. One you can book at 14 resorts. The other you can book at one. By that simple fact alone, DRR will be prices below CCV. Your intentions to stay where you buy have absolutely nothing to do with what it is worth. Your decision to spend X dollars on a contract has nothing to do with what another person is willing to pay. The market will decide that. This is BASIC economics. This is how it will go down:

Sure, there are people that will be willing to pay the $150pp. But the majority will see for the same or less money, they will have option to stay at several other resorts. DRR inventory will continue to rise and sure a contract here and there will sell for that price. But then one seller really wants to ditch it and lowers to $135, it goes right away. Then the remaining contracts sell. This will happen over and over until it reaches market value: which is 90-95% contracts sold (reasonable point value) within 30 days. If there are 25 DRR contracts on resale right now listed for $150pp with restrictions, you’re confident they will all sell within 30 days? No chance. You need more than a few seasoned buyers to set a market price.

If you buy DRR now, you are buying the Disney Vacation Club. When you sell it, you’ll be selling the DRR club. That’s just a fact and yes you’ll be staying at Disney, but the current resale point prices are BASED ON ability to book at 7 months anywhere. And if DRR availability is good at 7 months? Forget about it, all bets are off then. This entire thing all rests on DRR being a hot commodity. What if it’s not?

 

[striker1064]

This entire thing all rests on DRR being a hot commodity. What if it’s not?

But what if it is?

I've only been a DVC owner for a little over a year, and in that time the advice given to new interested buyers has morphed dramatically, from "buy where you would be ok staying" to "buy where you want to stay" because of just how hard it's gotten to book your home resort. I purchased AKV direct before the 75 point minimum for benefits, to stay at AKV. I purchased PVB resale to stay at PVB. We plan all of our vacations 10-11 months out, book our home resorts, and offer at best a cursory glance at 7 months to see if anything piques our interest.

I don't have a stake in this either way and I really don't care, but your entire argument has been based on DRR being a bad resort. If the Skyliner works the way they say it will - and there's no reason to believe at this point that won't be the case - and if the rooms and amenities are at least as good as all the other DVC resorts, there will be tons of people who will buy only to stay at DRR.

I sure as heck wouldn't pay $188 direct to switch to OKW, SSR, AKV, or any other DVC resort that can be purchased substantially cheaper on resale.

I personally voted $125-150 pp. I've been thinking about it ever since the restrictions are announced, and unless DRR is a total bomb of a DVC that's no better than a Value resort, I just don't see any way resales dip below $100/pp. We shall see.

 

[stewart715]

But what if it is?

I've only been a DVC owner for a little over a year, and in that time the advice given to new interested buyers has morphed dramatically, from "buy where you would be ok staying" to "buy where you want to stay" because of just how hard it's gotten to book your home resort. I purchased AKV direct before the 75 point minimum for benefits, to stay at AKV. I purchased PVB resale to stay at PVB. We plan all of our vacations 10-11 months out, book our home resorts, and offer at best a cursory glance at 7 months to see if anything piques our interest.

I don't have a stake in this either way and I really don't care, but your entire argument has been based on DRR being a bad resort. If the Skyliner works the way they say it will - and there's no reason to believe at this point that won't be the case - and if the rooms and amenities are at least as good as all the other DVC resorts, there will be tons of people who will buy only to stay at DRR.

I sure as heck wouldn't pay $188 direct to switch to OKW, SSR, AKV, or any other DVC resort that can be purchased substantially cheaper on resale.

I personally voted $125-150 pp. I've been thinking about it ever since the restrictions are announced, and unless DRR is a total bomb of a DVC that's no better than a Value resort, I just don't see any way resales dip below $100/pp. We shall see.

Let's back up for a second.

First of all, the "buy where you want to stay" argument does not mean buy where you will always stay. Or even buy where you will stay most of the time. It simply means: buy where you want to stay, worst case scenario. For example, many BCV and BWV owners book their home resorts at 11 months and then try to book each other at 7 months. There is a ton of crossover between BCV and BWV. This goes for OKW and SSR. BLT, PVB and VGF. So, buy where you want to stay means just means you will end up there, worst case scenario.

Secondly, even if you personally don't use your 7 month window ever, you have no control over the fact that ability to book at all 14 resorts at 7 months has inherent value built into your contract. The mere option to book anywhere has value, whether you use it or not. It's worth something. So removing it removes value. Many people use this 7 month window to add on to trips, do split stays or stay somewhere new entirely. So many WDW fans always talk about all the great places they have stayed. That's kind of part of the culture of WDW. Only the seasoned DVC members are willing to buy multiple home resorts to achieve this. Most will bulk up their points at one home resort in one UY and always book their home resort with the hope to try something new at 7 months.

I don't have skin in this game either. I'm not even saying to not buy DRR. I think it looks beautiful and I think at $188 direct with a 50 year contract it has tremendous value, even more so than CCV; but to the original buyer. All I am saying is I do not think it is a wise decision to purchase DRR if you plan on selling it or viewing it as an investment. I hold this opinion for all of DVC.

I just don't think Riveria will be good enough to hold its own at a high price resale with those restrictions like BWV, BCV or VGF could.

 

[Madame]

And if resale proves too much competition, DVC will just mess with the resale booking window. Now you’re out of luck for fall frenzy & you paid a serious resale premium?!?

And thinking people will pony up big money for resale only to turn around and pay more to be able to trade out?!? No.

 

[striker1064]

Secondly, even if you personally don't use your 7 month window ever, you have no control over the fact that ability to book at all 14 resorts at 7 months has inherent value built into your contract. The mere option to book anywhere has value, whether you use it or not. It's worth something. So removing it removes value. Many people use this 7 month window to add on to trips, do split stays or stay somewhere new entirely. So many WDW fans always talk about all the great places they have stayed. That's kind of part of the culture of WDW. Only the seasoned DVC members are willing to buy multiple home resorts to achieve this. Most will bulk up their points at one home resort in one UY and always book their home resort with the hope to try something new at 7 months.

I agree with this. Only seasoned DVC members buy multiples. I also am of the belief that only seasoned and well-researched DVC members buy resale (perhaps I am wrong about that). How many resale DRR resale buyers will be buying their first and only DVC contract? I'd be interested in that. Impossible to answer right now, of course.

I just don't think Riveria will be good enough to hold its own at a high price resale with those restrictions like BWV, BCV or VGF could.

And this is really the crux of both sides, which makes arguing about it more or less pointless. Will DRR be hot or not? If hot, if it's booked up at 7 months and lots of people want to stay there, prices will likely remain high. If not, resale prices are going to be low anyway, and it will be tough to know for sure how much the booking restriction will hurt because of just how many points are in DRR (but the restriction certainly won't help).

 

[stewart715]

And this is really the crux of both sides, which makes arguing about it more or less pointless.

So very true. This entire poll is essentially an opinion poll on if you think Riviera will be "okay, good, great, amazing."

 

[kniquy]

I voted between 125-150. I think initially it will try to be sold high but i think educated buyers will be offering less than list price. I still think DVC will be the ones to hold the bar high on this one. They want to keep the resale price high so that they don't lose business -- Their tactic will be - why buy resale at $150 per point, be locked into only Riviera when you can buy direct at $188 per point and have access to all the resorts and all the perks for just $38 more per point. Makes direct look like a great deal