Thoughts on Lowball Offer

[ABE4DISNEY]

Been looking for an Epcot resort bargain and went for Boardwalk due to lower point charts and slightly closer to HS.
Tried about 3 around 100-150pts but unsuccessful. I think 2 brokers thought I was out of my mind and we’re just sending emails back saying Seller says too low, not even a hello
But, Just nabbed a stripped contract for $95, 150pts, I’ve put details in ROFR thread. Actually works out at $98ppt as we are splitting some dues for 2021.
I started at $92 and worked upwards slowly.
It was up for $117 so this lowball offer tactic worked but I’ve no idea if Disney will start ROFR, we will see. I think the people bought direct when it was $65 a point so they have still done pretty well too, relatively speaking.

Excellent job, Ruttangel!!

 

[sethschroeder]

if the contract doesn't have banked points that $12/point value lost then if it doesnt have current years points that's another $15/point worth of value lost. Then you account for any MFs you have to pay.

So I would think a stripped contract is roughly $13/point less at BWV vs a loaded contract.

 

[Yinn]

www.dvcbyresale.com is another one I see kicked around here from time to time as an OK place.

The website is a mess and more difficult than others to navigate, but Shontell has always put my lowball offers in - unlike some other sites. I’ve never been pushed to raise my initial offers. She just puts it in and let’s me know the counter, let’s me counter that if I want but has never pushed me to. They’ll also send a ton of emails, which I’m not a huge fan of but was able to unsubscribe. Otherwise, it’s one of my preferred places to make lowball offers. She might secretly hate me, but if she does I have no idea.

I got my PVB fixed week contract here for $25/pt under asking ($128/pt) when avg points at the time we’re $145-$160.

 

[ldo]

Imho a loaded contract seems to sell for about $3-5 more (Or the same price) and a stripped $3-5 less. The market does not seem to value banked points.
A stripped is “really“ then $10-13 less because you’re Also not paying annual fees for the stripped year either.

 

[CastAStone]

The website is a mess and more difficult than others to navigate, but Shontell has always put my lowball offers in - unlike some other sites. I’ve never been pushed to raise my initial offers. She just puts it in and let’s me know the counter, let’s me counter that if I want but has never pushed me to. They’ll also send a ton of emails, which I’m not a huge fan of but was able to unsubscribe. Otherwise, it’s one of my preferred places to make lowball offers. She might secretly hate me, but if she does I have no idea.

I got my PVB fixed week contract here for $25/pt under asking ($128/pt) when avg points at the time we’re $145-$160.

They’re also one of the sites who has “borrow all the 2021 points immediately!” in the description of contracts without 2020 points. Which is of course currently not allowed.

 

[sethschroeder]

A stripped is “really“ then $10-13 less because you’re Also not paying annual fees for the stripped year either.

And I said calculate in the MFs.

So yes no MFs for a total of $7 or $14 based on 1 or 2 years of MFs but the value of the points is more than MFs otherwise the contract would be free.

As an example let's say there is banked points. Those banked points are still worth $12/point if (and big if) you paid for banked points MFs that would subtract out a little more than $7/point so the points to get have $5/point value. More than likely though you won't pay MFs on banked points.

Now for the current year those points since you can bank them are worth roughly $15/point in value or after MFs (which you likely will pay but could always negotiate prorated or none) you are down to $8/point in value.

Can care less the market values it or not. That's why you should find a loaded contract if prices are similar.

You can do your own math to the equation though as you might value points a little less. I view it based on the rough transfer market (on top of that transfer points being a pain in the butt to use).

 

[davidl81]

And I said calculate in the MFs.

So yes no MFs for a total of $7 or $14 based on 1 or 2 years of MFs but the value of the points is more than MFs otherwise the contract would be free.

As an example let's say there is banked points. Those banked points are still worth $12/point if (and big if) you paid for banked points MFs that would subtract out a little more than $7/point so the points to get have $5/point value. More than likely though you won't pay MFs on banked points.

Now for the current year those points since you can bank them are worth roughly $15/point in value or after MFs (which you likely will pay but could always negotiate prorated or none) you are down to $8/point in value.

Can care less the market values it or not. That's why you should find a loaded contract if prices are similar.

You can do your own math to the equation though as you might value points a little less. I view it based on the rough transfer market (on top of that transfer points being a pain in the butt to use).

I think that math is pretty solid. IMO a stripped contract is worth about $15-$20 per point less than a fully loaded and banked contract, but for the most part actual sales numbers show the difference closer to $7-$10. I think part of it is so many people just focus on the top line $per point number. I am looking at adding on right now because we are caught in the always borrowing limbo and I am only looking at contracts that have all 2020 points and most if not all of the 2019 points banked into 2020 (Dec use year). My thought process is the reason I am adding on (partly) is because I am always borrowing so why would I buy a contract that is already stripped and would force me to borrow points if I wanted to use it within the next year or so.

And once you start the borrowing game its pretty hard to get out of it. It just kind of snowballs on you.

 

[disneykim17]

Looking at a contract right now 100pts AKV for $127...to high...was thinking of offering $110 - $115...opinions please?

 

[Ruttangel]

Looking at a contract right now 100pts AKV for $127...to high...was thinking of offering $110 - $115...opinions please?

Kind of depends what points it currently has, is it the one with 134 points for 2020?
i would say that is really overpriced . If you are in no rush then I could see one like this going for $100-105 in the next few months. There is one here https://www.fidelityresales.com/disneys-animal-kingdom-lodge-villas/unit/5007591 I’m guessing that went for $105 ish

 

[Kylie_1504]

Looking at a contract right now 100pts AKV for $127...to high...was thinking of offering $110 - $115...opinions please?

Hmm I was about to ask a similar question. AKL 160 point for $117 I just offered $100. Full points from 2020 onwards.
I am comfortable to wait it out, the only thing I want to get in on is the waving of the ROFR at the moment.

 

[disneykim17]

Kind of depends what points it currently has, is it the one with 134 points for 2020?
i would say that is really overpriced . If you are in no rush then I could see one like this going for $100-105 in the next few months. There was already one on
https://www.**********.com/dvc-animal-kingdom-villas-listings/ for $110 that has 106 current year points, I’m guessing that went for $105 ish

Yes, that is the one I was looking at as we have a Sept UY and it seems not many come up with that UY. We are in no rush, just nervous that we won't see many with our UY. Thanks for the input, greatly appreciate it.

 

[disneykim17]

Hmm I was about to ask a similar question. AKL 160 point for $117 I just offered $100. Full points from 2020 onwards.
I am comfortable to wait it out, the only thing I want to get in on is the waving of the ROFR at the moment.

Same, want to make sure you get the UY you want and getting it before the ROFR button is turned back on.

 

[Ruttangel]

Yes, that is the one I was looking at as we have a Sept UY and it seems not many come up with that UY. We are in no rush, just nervous that we won't see many with our UY. Thanks for the input, greatly appreciate it.

ok, if the UY is really important and this is rare then you can easily justify another $5 to offer $110 as $500 over the life of contract is not much.
you could just Offer $110 and say that is a final bid.

 

[TinkB278]

Hmm I was about to ask a similar question. AKL 160 point for $117 I just offered $100. Full points from 2020 onwards.
I am comfortable to wait it out, the only thing I want to get in on is the waving of the ROFR at the moment.

I feel like that is way too high also for what it is. I don’t think 160 points at AKV should really go above $105.

 

[Kylie_1504]

I feel like that is way too high also for what it is. I don’t think 160 points at AKV should really go above $105.

We will see. I have submitted the offer and they have just responded as I accidentally did it twice cause I was worried it didn’t work. (they should really send a confirmation but oh well)
Watch this space.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Yes, that is the one I was looking at as we have a Sept UY and it seems not many come up with that UY. We are in no rush, just nervous that we won't see many with our UY. Thanks for the input, greatly appreciate it.

Anecdotally, I just bought an August UY and it seems like all I see everywhere now is Sep UY.

 

[TinkB278]

We will see. I have submitted the offer and they have just responded as I accidentally did it twice cause I was worried it didn’t work. (they should really send a confirmation but oh well)
Watch this space.

What did you end up offering?

 

[TinkB278]

What did you end up offering?

Oh sorry, I see, $100. Interested to see what they say! I’ve been looking for a similar contract but haven’t even bothered to bid because I didn’t think they would come down that much, which is probably not the way to go about things.

 

[disneykim17]

We will see. I have submitted the offer and they have just responded as I accidentally did it twice cause I was worried it didn’t work. (they should really send a confirmation but oh well)
Watch this space.

Good luck to you and I just submitted my first resale offer and will hear later this afternoon if they've accepted it or went with another offer.

 

[sethschroeder]

Looking at a contract right now 100pts AKV for $127...to high...was thinking of offering $110 - $115...opinions please?

$90-$95/point with current year points is what I would want the price to be. Prices are not going up anyway time soon. If by December you don't have a contract then you can adjust.

In 2021 there is going to be tons of loaded or full point contracts for sales with so many cancelling trips this year.