Just a summary of thoughts (to "limit" my longwinded ness)
Reddog's report of 79% occupancy...if true...is a gigantic problem if assessed internally. My experience... Circa 12 years ago...is that almost all hotels were booked to 100% (sometimes due to oversells... Story for another day) during peaks and the majority of nights in slower times as well -property wide
As a reference point, they've added pop and art of animation... And dvc conversion/ construction in 4 spots since...but a large amount of villas (roughly 2100 in a rough estimate).
If they hover in the 50-70% range...and can't get to capacity often - then honestly wouldn't be shocked at full conversion to DVC at WL.
Kinda shocked its not under construction already.
And in a rare occurrence... I agree with Jim hill media about beach club.
You can't sniff the place in DVC... But the rack hotel has never been that popular. Even though I still rank it "#1"...and I'm just a tad picky... Due mostly to location, it is just not a great seller in rack rooms.
So it seems to be a fairly easy "problem" to fix.
Remember when they built the villas...DVC was not selling well and they went pretty small.if they had waited just 5 years...I think it would have been vastly different.
Just as I think the lack of "spectacular response" to bay lake had tempered the construction at grand Floridian and poly a bit.
They can go back and convert beach and it will solve that "problem" overnight.
Back gate of EPCOT + frequent travelers love of EPCOT = 100% occupancy at DVC
This brings up key data points we’re missing- what is being converted and how many: is it a wing in each property?, a specific room type(s) that isn’t selling as Deluxe (also meaning, do they realign the room types of what isn’t converted)? What’s the percentage of conversion – 10%, 50%, the whole Property?
Each one of these points to a specific issue(s) they could be trying to resolve and will give a better picture of what they’re trying to accomplish.
So, add in the Four Seasons, and the conversion – this is a pretty big shift in Disney’s approach to “Deluxe” or the illusion of such and how much/what they offer.
I think the DVC timeshares are for the hardcore Disney visitors, the people who want their guaranteed trips to Disney. I agree, I don't think income really plays in as much as we think, probably a very wide range of incomes represented. Honestly, I think half of it is spouses cajoling the other spouse into signing, therefore guaranteeing their Disney vacations for the next decade or two or three. I have no data for that
I'm not sure about the private jet crowd. If they are that rich, they can probably fly in and rent a hotel suite at one of the Disney hotels if they want to and not even think about it. So they probably aren't much of a factor in the regular Disney deluxe room business. And maybe going forward they would be more likely to rent a few rooms at the new Four Seasons.
Yep, we need bring it down several levels from those who have a plane and it’s a bigger demographic.
The mid-range of Deluxe guest does bring a lot of spend to the table for Disney. Dropping 10 grand in spend during 4 days to a week is still no big deal for this group that's several steps down from the jet crowd.
International also needs to be taken into account. Their currency goes pretty far with exchange rates being what they are. That 600 dollar room is $350 to a UK guest from London. Big difference.
The Seasons deal shows just how much ancillary spend the true Deluxe guest brings if they’re willing to give up the room rev to Seasons and just get that ancillary spend from those guests.
It’s expensive providing real deluxe accommodations. The Seasons is taking on that expense. So, Disney decreasing their inventory in this arena with the conversion also seems smarter with the Seasons competition for this guest’s room night on the horizon.
So decreasing their “faux” deluxe inventory with the conversion while increasing DVC, partnering with a true deluxe provider in Seasons, but also increasing their inventory for the really big spenders with the Poly bungalows to go along with their very expensive Suite inventory --- there's some long range demographic realignment going on when looked at together.
