Where are (or were) the crowds?????

[Roxyfire]

Though "many schools"...particularly in the northern tundra/Midwest may have had off this week...that doesnt solve the question.

Many Chicago area schools go back on 1/9. A lot of my son's friends went to Disney this week. He goes to Memphis or I would've considered it. Glad I didn't!

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Many Chicago area schools go back on 1/9. A lot of my son's friends went to Disney this week. He goes to Memphis or I would've considered it. Glad I didn't!

Ok...but you're not geographically out of where I said.

One chunk of the US isn't enough to mob an international destination

 

[Madonna3]

Wisconsin schools went back on the 3rd so that's not the issue. I have heard a lot of Canadian and Florida schools are off and I'm sure they aren't the only ones.

I know in Lee County, which is where I work, that some schools were off all this week. My son, however, went back on the 4th and we live in a different county.

Part of the reason for this is we didn't use any "hurricane" days. Some school systems build in more days than others.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Wisconsin schools went back on the 3rd so that's not the issue. I have heard a lot of Canadian and Florida schools are off and I'm sure they aren't the only ones.

Florida could cause unexpected influx...

Remember though that Canada's "pipeline economy" crumbled awhile ago...and their business is "soft"

 

[Roxyfire]

Ok...but you're not geographically out of where I said.

One chunk of the US isn't enough to mob an international destination

Didn't you show a chart the other day about the high number of DVC owners in states like IL/NY/PA? There's a lot of snowbirds here, can't imagine how many in the Northeast. How many are taking the grandkids? Just like anything else, it's a culmination of factors. Between the locals having their AP open again, large population centers with time and money to spend, and this marathon weekend that's what is going on. It's all free game to speculate.

 

[jade1]

I think the "balance" was worse before.

Seems like they are trying to balance/disperse crowds, partially through pricing and blackouts.

Many locals probably chose Gold, Silver or Weekday passes and have been waiting to get back since Dec 18-esp if they are off this week.

 

[Disneylover99]

Florida could cause unexpected influx...

Remember though that Canada's "pipeline economy" crumbled awhile ago...and their business is "soft"

We drove down to DW from Toronto this week. Most of the travellers from Ontario we met in the hotels along the way all had similar destinations - DW/Orlando. Lots of first timers too. The reason? School not starting back til January 9th. Don't underestimate the presence of us Canadians.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Didn't you show a chart the other day about the high number of DVC owners in states like IL/NY/PA? There's a lot of snowbirds here, can't imagine how many in the Northeast. How many are taking the grandkids? Just like anything else, it's a culmination of factors. Between the locals having their AP open again, large population centers with time and money to spend, and this marathon weekend that's what is going on. It's all free game to speculate.

I live between two of those states and grew up in one of them.

"Snowbirds" doesn't explain the week after New Years being unusually crowded. They were IN SCHOOL except Chicagoland...which
I'll admit is about 1-2% of the population - give or take.

The net effect is "minor". Now snowbirds do add to crowds in the staggered spring break months...visiting Nana and all...

Now the end of AP blackout could be a thing...thought Florida residents could see all the pretty lights up until about December 20th...so who knows what effect that had?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

We drove down to DW from Toronto this week. Most of the travellers from Ontario we met in the hotels along the way all had similar destinations - DW/Orlando. Lots of first timers too. The reason? School not starting back til January 9th. Don't underestimate the presence of us Canadians.

How many did you meet? 10, 100, or 1,000,000?

There are Canadians all over Florida...all the time. The gulf coast is full of tortured Leafs fans.

But...we're talking about scale and an unusual decline followed by influx. Perspective.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think the "balance" was worse before.

Seems like they are trying to balance/disperse crowds, partially through pricing and blackouts.

Many locals probably chose Gold, Silver or Weekday passes and have been waiting to get back since Dec 18-esp if they are off this week.

That could be...but that was in no way "by design"...they wanted more people in January AND packed to the gills holidays...more people, more money, damn the torpedoes.

They are not benevolent enough to their customers to care if you're that "comfortable"...that's not a fixed target for the beaners

 

[jade1]

That could be...but that was in no way "by design"...they wanted more people in January AND packed to the gills holidays...more people, more money, damn the torpedoes.

They are not benevolent enough to their customers to care if you're that "comfortable"...that's not a fixed target for the beaners

Maybe, but I'll take "by accident" if it was.

Overall though I believe they do want crowds dispersed over the entire year. Why do the pricing models if not.

 

[Disneylover99]

How many did you meet? 10, 100, or 1,000,000?

There are Canadians all over Florida...all the time. The gulf coast is full of tortured Leafs fans.

But...we're talking about scale and an unusual decline followed by influx. Perspective.

I'm not talking about snowbirds. I'm talking about families with young children going for the week after Christmas. It doesn't matter how many I met. The point is, everyone I met had not come down during this time before and the reason was the late start to school in January. Which leads me to believe, many others along similar routes also headed down for this reason.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Maybe, but I'll take "by accident" if it was.

Overall though I believe they do want crowds dispersed over the entire year. Why do the pricing models if not.

You always see the "good"...even when it's not there.

They want larger, higher paying crowds everyday of the year...and no bad PR...

That's not in question. I am glad you enjoyed the net effect in the short term

 

[Roxyfire]

Now the end of AP blackout could be a thing...thought Florida residents could see all the pretty lights up until about December 20th...so who knows what effect that had?

And maybe they didn't want to mess with those non-party night crowds either. If I were a local, I probably would not go anywhere near MK on a Saturday. Might as well wait until January.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I'm not talking about snowbirds. I'm talking about families with young children going for the week after Christmas. It doesn't matter how many I met. The point is, everyone I met had not come down during this time before and the reason was the late start to school in January. Which leads me to believe, many others along similar routes may also be heading down for this reason.

It does...because they have 50 mil+ visitors annually and those numbers are weighted still (not as much as used to) in the peak periods.

You would need probably 50,000 Canadians (minimum) traveling outside of the typical (nobody better at numbers than disney) to cause an influx/crowd issue. To make a dent.

So the number does matter?

It actually reminds me in the 2000 era when people would come into resorts late on a Friday and say:

"we need a room"

"Sold out"

"That's impossible...you have a ton of rooms"

"2,112...sold out"

"Give me a reserve room"

"No reserve rooms"

"That's impossible..."

"Not only is it possible...it's true...a pipe broke and 4 rooms had to be moved to yacht"

"can I go to yacht?"

"I'd love to...but they're sold out"

"Who has rooms?"

"Might be a couple at the disney institute...I'll call"

"Wow, this must be a busy night?"

"99.3% occupancy for the year...this is EVERY night"


My point? And it has nothing to do with my undying love for the birthplace of my ultimate god Mario Lemieux...is that when people say "we have off" and "a lot" those are "micro" details in a place that's governed by "macro" principles. Minor fluctuations.

But AGAIN...we're talking about two weeks that appear to be flip flopped. Many pieces to the puzzle...not just Canadians.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

And maybe they didn't want to mess with those non-party night crowds either. If I were a local, I probably would not go anywhere near MK on a Saturday. Might as well wait until January.

Again...conceivable. The flood of Halloween and Christmas parties (45 in 4 months...ridiculous) is another issue that doesn't get much play...yet...

The pimple we have yet to pop.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Well Disney announced that stitch would be seasonal. The rumor is the replacement IP was changed to something else (originally was wreck it Ralph). I also reported that work only began on one theater which wasn't true either since we had reports here that both theaters were running. Latest says it won't open back up at all anymore even seasonal.

Think they might be too cheap to do what's right on this?

That's a really pricey bad bus depot they built down at the shopping mall at lake buena vista...

 

[LaidBackDad]

I live between two of those states and grew up in one of them.

"Snowbirds" doesn't explain the week after New Years being unusually crowded. They were IN SCHOOL except Chicagoland...which
I'll admit is about 1-2% of the population - give or take.

The net effect is "minor". Now snowbirds do add to crowds in the staggered spring break months...visiting Nana and all...

Now the end of AP blackout could be a thing...thought Florida residents could see all the pretty lights up until about December 20th...so who knows what effect that had?

You're missing the smoking gun here. The title of the thread. By all accounts crowds where down at Christmas and picked up after into the New Year spilling over into a normally slow week. The answer is clearly the school schedules in a significant number of areas. With the longer break and later return date, thousands (maybe 10's of thousands) of veteran Disney families with children who traditionally vacation during Christmas break took advantage of a scheduling quirk to presumably go during a slower week of the year. Most people who visit WDW are not from Florida. I don't think it's that big of a mystery. If school calendars allow it, the parks will be packed.

 

[rteetz]

Think they might be too cheap to do what's right on this?

That's a really pricey bad bus depot they built down at the shopping mall at lake buena vista...

Well we will have to wait and see what they officially announce for the location.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You're missing the smoking gun here. The title of the thread. By all accounts crowds where down at Christmas and picked up after into the New Year spilling over into a normally slow week. The answer is clearly the school schedules in a significant number of areas. With the longer break and later return date, thousands (maybe 10's of thousands) of veteran Disney families with children who traditionally vacation during Christmas break took advantage of a scheduling quirk to presumably go during a slower week of the year. Most people who visit WDW are not from Florida. I don't think it's that big of a mystery. If school calendars allow it, the parks will be packed.

I get the point...I just disagree on its significance.

My main contest to this is that breaks were the shortest they'll ever be in some areas...as I said: including the highest populated feeder area in the Country.

Florida could have a lot to do with it...that is the most reasonable explanation.

Or price...still my leader In the clubhouse.