My thinking on this has shifted a little, to the core question of what drives resale prices? I believe it is supply & demand, but also ROFR. Two major points:
1. Theoretically, the resale restriction seeks to dampen the demand for resale at Riviera. However, if you're interested in buying DVC and want to stay at Riviera, your options are: (A) Buy direct Riviera, (B) Buy resale Riviera, or (C) Buy a different resort direct and trade in at 7 months. (A) will cost a whole lot more than (B), and (C) is a big risk for many room types and times of the year. Won't that drive savvy buyers to the resale market?
As many have noted, many of us buy home resort points for the sole purpose of staying there. That fact will only be compounded when Riviera resale owners only have one choice, which furthers the necessity of owning Riviera... it'll be a vicious cycle. If you want to stay at Riviera, you better buy there.
Bottom line, assuming Riviera is an in-demand resort that we think it will be, I don't think resale demand will be destroyed. Impacted? Maybe, but not by much.
2. Aside from that, if prices drop too low, you have to believe they will ROFR them, especially with their new UY rules. That has to drive prices up, right? I really see it ending up close to the % spread you see at the other "buy where you want to stay" resorts... maybe a hair lower, but close.
I'm not saying the resale restriction is irrelevant; it does matter. But I question how strong it will actually be five years down the road.
As for the "I don't like how they're making all these changes all at once" argument, I'm with you 100%. Rubs me the wrong way, too. I just don't think this resale restriction is going to sting much. At least not at Riviera.