5th Park inevitable ?

[rteetz]

The expansions will help, but you still have the same guests going through the same turnstiles, in the same shops and restaurants. You still have the 4-5 person families walking hand and hand like the Wizard of OZ down the yellow brick road.

This doesn’t make sense to me. The same guests through the same turnstiles? If Disney expanded the current parks further that would bring in more and new people.

 

[Dfan79]

This doesn’t make sense to me. The same guests through the same turnstiles? If Disney expanded the current parks further that would bring in more and new people.

After Animal Kingdom was opened the other parks experienced lesser crowds, even though more people were actually coming to Disney World.

1997 17 mil 11.8 mil 10.5 mil N/A = 39.3 million
1998 15.6 mil 10.6 mil 9.5 mil 6 mil = 41. 7 million
1999 15.2 mil 10.1 mil 8.7 mil 8.6 mil = 42.6 million
2000 15.4 mil 10.6 mil 8.9 mil 8.3 mil = 43.2 million

 

[rteetz]

After Animal Kingdom was opened the other parks experienced lesser crowds, even though more people were actually coming to Disney World.

1997 17 mil 11.8 mil 10.5 mil N/A = 39.3 million
1998 15.6 mil 10.6 mil 9.5 mil 6 mil = 41. 7 million
1999 15.2 mil 10.1 mil 8.7 mil 8.6 mil = 42.6 million
2000 15.4 mil 10.6 mil 8.9 mil 8.3 mil = 43.2 million

Ok, though Disney wasn’t happy with those numbers from what I know. Disney thought and expected even more people would come to WDW because of the new park but they didn't. And people really didn’t extend their vacation time at WDW because of AK. So while a new park may spread out crowds a bit it might not bring more or extended the amount of time people stay.

I still don’t think a 5th gate is the answer. You have an employment shortage, and all the factors of guests and how they use their vacation time and money.

 

[rstevens333]

If they add a fifth gate, it should really be more along the lines of International Gateway, but for MK or HS.

Pop a land or two onto those, allow people to enter and get a different perspective on things. One example might be entering MK through a "dark woods" instead of Main Street, and tying that to a villains land. (not saying they could actually do this, just an example.)

 

[Ambehnke]

What Disney SHOULD be concerned about is that with a new park Universal will likely become a destination for a full vacation more so than an add on or side trip. With three parks and a water park you could easily spend a week there instead of a week at Disney with a day or two there. I don’t know that building a 5th park will help Disney in this matter though. They already have enough to warrant a week plus vacation. What they need is to just stay the more immersive park with themed lands that appeal to more people.

 

[Dfan79]

Even after opening up new attractions (Buzz Lightyear, Winnie the Pooh, Test Track, Fantasmic, Rock n Rollercoaster) at their first 3 parks the crowds overall steadily climbed, but remained lower at each. Thanks to the opening of their 4th gate (Animal Kingdom), making the Disney parks a more pleasant and enjoyable experience.

 

[miknmin81]

Here's my two cents (and its not worth that!!)

A fifth gate will happen if Disney can get back the Marvel rights from Universal. When will that happen? Once Disney buys Fox and they own 60% of HULU, Comcast/Universal will likely want to get rid of their 30%. Iger buys HULU 30% and rights to Marvel east of the Mississippi and there it is. Remember, Iger traded Al Michaels for Oswald the Rabbit (Universal owned the rights to Walt's first/early character). Then they'll have a park to compete with Universal for male demo.

 

[Dfan79]

Here's my two cents (and its not worth that!!)

A fifth gate will happen if Disney can get back the Marvel rights from Universal. When will that happen? Once Disney buys Fox and they own 60% of HULU, Comcast/Universal will likely want to get rid of their 30%. Iger buys HULU 30% and rights to Marvel east of the Mississippi and there it is. Remember, Iger traded Al Michaels for Oswald the Rabbit (Universal owned the rights to Walt's first/early character). Then they'll have a park to compete with Universal for male demo.

I think they'd only give Disney their 30% of Marvel and control if they agreed to handover FOX (Xmen, Deadpool, Aliens, Predator, etc).

 

[rteetz]

I think they'd only give Disney their 30% of Marvel and control if they agreed to handover FOX (Xmen, Deadpool, Aliens, Predator, etc).

Comcast got what it really wanted in Sky. Disney isn’t giving them more.

 

[boscfan]

I think they will have to think about it in like 4 or 5 years. But they should be good for a while with Star Wars. It is going to make the other parks feel less crowded in comparison.

 

[Sweettears]

I think they will have to think about it in like 4 or 5 years. But they should be good for a while with Star Wars. It is going to make the other parks feel less crowded in comparison.

I’m sure that it is in their conversations but I can’t see that it would be on the radar for quite some time. Once the planned additions and renovations are completed they will step back and evaluate. The other factor that comes into play is the economy. We’ve had a great period of economic growth. As the economy is cyclical we are certain to be facing a downturn or recession sometime during the next 10 years or so. Highly doubtful Disney would be planning a 5th gate in the face of that.

 

[George4]

After Animal Kingdom was opened the other parks experienced lesser crowds, even though more people were actually coming to Disney World.

1997 17 mil 11.8 mil 10.5 mil N/A = 39.3 million
1998 15.6 mil 10.6 mil 9.5 mil 6 mil = 41. 7 million
1999 15.2 mil 10.1 mil 8.7 mil 8.6 mil = 42.6 million
2000 15.4 mil 10.6 mil 8.9 mil 8.3 mil = 43.2 million

And below lies why they meed need a 5th park.

2017 (MK)-20.4 mil (AK)-12.5 mil (EPCOT)-12.2 mil (HS)10.7 mil = 55.8 million

WDW is up close to 16 million visitors since they opened AK. That is an almost 50% increase in attendance. They have reached a point of saturation throughout the year where teh park experience isn't enjoyable to a lot of people. Yes, SW:GE is going to rebalance where people end up, but it isn't like HS really has the space to absorb tons of people and have people still enjoy the experience. I will advocate for whatever it takes to get the average attendance at each park down, without just raising the price to the point that only the wealthy get to enjoy the experience. Judging from past park openings, it appears that about 10-15% of each parks attendance diverts to the new park. That would put individual park attendance back to around 1997 levels, but overall WDW attendance remains unaffected, and maybe even increases for the new location. Beyond that, in an effort to stop people from diverting to other parks for part of their vacation, a fifth gate may have the desired effect, even if it only opened with 10-12 rides/attractions. I would personally advocate for a combination of bring parks up to MK level of attractions (somewhere between 40-72, depending on how you count) while also opening a fifth gate. I know, the billions involved are staggering. Parks and film are really propping this company up right now, and they may need to space and theming to start to leverage them against their other properties as well.

 

[Shughart]

I personally think the Villian park/ Dark Kingdom could work quite well, especially if it's geared towards the pre-teen and older crowd. I see a lot from people who want to take a family trip to Florida and they are torn over what park to visit, because their little kids want Disney and the older kids want Universal (specifically "I don't want to go to Disney, that's for little kids and babies!"). A Villian park could be a great way to add elements from the Decendants movies too, which seem to be quite popular with the older kids. It would also be a great spot to have the Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party. I've seen people mention that Star Wars would've been good for a 5th park, however I think basing a whole park off of a single movie is not the way to go because if you're not a fan of that *one* thing you'd really not have much incentive to go. Just my thoughts

Since someone said the magic word, I just have to say how super salty I was that there was nothing nowhere for the Descendants. When we went, my daughter (the birthday girl) was super obsessed with the first movie (second hand't come out yet). All we saw the whole trip there, and on the last day, was a movie poster at the transportation center.

 

[Dfan79]

And below lies why they meed need a 5th park.

2017 (MK)-20.4 mil (AK)-12.5 mil (EPCOT)-12.2 mil (HS)10.7 mil = 55.8 million

WDW is up close to 16 million visitors since they opened AK. That is an almost 50% increase in attendance. They have reached a point of saturation throughout the year where teh park experience isn't enjoyable to a lot of people. Yes, SW:GE is going to rebalance where people end up, but it isn't like HS really has the space to absorb tons of people and have people still enjoy the experience. I will advocate for whatever it takes to get the average attendance at each park down, without just raising the price to the point that only the wealthy get to enjoy the experience. Judging from past park openings, it appears that about 10-15% of each parks attendance diverts to the new park. That would put individual park attendance back to around 1997 levels, but overall WDW attendance remains unaffected, and maybe even increases for the new location. Beyond that, in an effort to stop people from diverting to other parks for part of their vacation, a fifth gate may have the desired effect, even if it only opened with 10-12 rides/attractions. I would personally advocate for a combination of bring parks up to MK level of attractions (somewhere between 40-72, depending on how you count) while also opening a fifth gate. I know, the billions involved are staggering. Parks and film are really propping this company up right now, and they may need to space and theming to start to leverage them against their other properties as well.

I absolutely, positively agree. I've been in September and late January recently and even during those times it seemed crowded. And those used to be the dead times for Disney World. You used to be able to dance down main street buck naked without anyone seeing you. …. But now sadly you can't do that anymore.

 

[disnut4ever]

I think that they should ask Walt's frozen head what to do.

 

[disneysource11]

I think it is between Dark Dominion/Domain or Beastly Kingdomme. They seem like the most marketable unless Disney can somehow get the Marvel rights. Than Hollywood's sister park maybe pushed to the front.

 

[Dfan79]

This past weekend had 6 hour waits for "Flight of Passage". What is Star Wars going to be at Christmas time, 10???

 

[rojen]

I wonder if current management will finally embrace roller coasters as a fifth gate option.

Cedar Point puts in huge new rides for a fraction of what Disney spends. I don't think a thrill park requires the expensive theming that a 7DMT demands. Cedar Faire spends around $25 million for a roller coaster. Per Google.

Otherwise a new gate is impossible. Supposedly $750 million for New Fantasyland, a billion for MDE, and $270 million for Ratatouille. What would a whole new gate cost? $25, $50 billion?

I think it's sorely needed, but unlikely to be a 5th gate anytime soon. And it wouldn't do enough to alleviate MK crowding anyways.

I'd love a villains park on Bay Lake if they could reclaim the ground.

 

[rteetz]

I wonder if current management will finally embrace roller coasters as a fifth gate option.

Cedar Point puts in huge new rides for a fraction of what Disney spends. I don't think a thrill park requires the expensive theming that a 7DMT demands. Cedar Faire spends around $25 million for a roller coaster. Per Google.

Otherwise a new gate is impossible. Supposedly $750 million for New Fantasyland, a billion for MDE, and $270 million for Ratatouille. What would a whole new gate cost? $25, $50 billion?

I think it's sorely needed, but unlikely to be a 5th gate anytime soon. And it wouldn't do enough to alleviate MK crowding anyways.

I'd love a villains park on Bay Lake if they could reclaim the ground.

No I don't think so. Disney does themed entertainment not amusement entertainment. People don't come to Disney for Cedar Fair or Six Flags attractions they come to be put in the worlds of stories.

 

[George4]

I wonder if current management will finally embrace roller coasters as a fifth gate option.

Cedar Point puts in huge new rides for a fraction of what Disney spends. I don't think a thrill park requires the expensive theming that a 7DMT demands. Cedar Faire spends around $25 million for a roller coaster. Per Google.

Otherwise a new gate is impossible. Supposedly $750 million for New Fantasyland, a billion for MDE, and $270 million for Ratatouille. What would a whole new gate cost? $25, $50 billion?

I think it's sorely needed, but unlikely to be a 5th gate anytime soon. And it wouldn't do enough to alleviate MK crowding anyways.

I'd love a villains park on Bay Lake if they could reclaim the ground.

While these individual lands have been incredibly expensive to build, they are whole new immersive areas that require extensive reworking of existing infrastructure. They are also building D- and E-ticket attractions for most of these, which tend to cost more. When building a whole new park from scratch, it isn't as expensive because everything is a clean slate. In addition, not everything you're building is a D- or E-ticket attraction. AK cost around $1billion to build. 20 years later, you could probably build a new park for $4-8 billion depending on size and theme. But we aren't talking the 40+ attractions of Magic Kingdom, but rather the 10-12 attractions of EPCOT, DHS or AK when they opened. Even MK opened much smaller than it is now. It took about 10 years to get the basics build and open.