Predictions on WDW marathon sell out times?

[twinsouvenirs]

The extra early mornings made us disinclined to go Dopey over Goofy, but the clincher was the extra time it would have required off from work.

Seeing the 10k on the verge at 98%, I love how they update at 10% increments for almost the entire time, only to slow down to 95%. . . 98%. . . makes me think of kids counting down with "5, 4, 3, 2, 1. . . 1 and a half, 1 and a quarter, 1 and one fifth. . ."

Hahaha agreed I am seeing 98% full at 2:20... is the 'full' determination from someone trying to register or just rounding up?

 

[Castle2Castle]

Hahaha agreed I am seeing 98% full at 2:20... is the 'full' determination from someone trying to register or just rounding up?

Depending on how you refresh, you sometimes see it actually updated and it sometimes goes back to what you last had. Most likely it actually had reached sold out and was already showing to that poster. I see it as sold out on my page now, too.

Dopey's getting the timeout treatment at 95%. . . 95 and 1/2. . .

 

[twinsouvenirs]

Oh, never mind--I see the little sliders saying sold out now on the 10k and the Dopey.

Half Marathon 70%
Walt Disney World® 10K Sold Out
Disney Family Fun Run 5K 90%
Dopey Challenge Sold Out

Registration blurb seems to be behind, because it's showing
•Dopey Challenge - 90% Full
•Half Marathon - 70% Full
•Walt Disney World® 10K - 98% Full
•Family Fun Run 5K - 80% Full

(2:29pm)

 

[twinsouvenirs]

... and one refresh later the registration blurb says
•Dopey Challenge - 95% Full
•Half Marathon - 75% Full
•Walt Disney World® 10K - Sold Out
•Family Fun Run 5K - 90% Full

 

[RunDisney Crazy]

The early mornings along with hitting the parks on all those days as well, took it's toll. But since it's a 'trip' for us, we ran and hit the parks all day long. But hey, rest when you get home right! But I don't think I would do it again until year 5.

But....... then again, if I sign up for another WDW Marathon weekend I don't think I could talk myself out of doing the Dopey. I mean, I would figure, I'd do at least the Goofy, but for a little more cash, I could get another 3 medals.

See, I've already talked myself into it for the next time. Ahhhhhhhh.

 

[spryde]

Dopey is fluctuating between 95% and sold out. Better jump in while y'all can!

 

[VAfamily1998]

Wow! It's showing the Marathon at 50%---and Goofy still isn't even on the radar!

I'm surprised the Marathon is that full already, considering it took so long to sell out last year!

 

[Castle2Castle]

Dopey is fluctuating between 95% and sold out. Better jump in while y'all can!

Pretty sure it's sold out once it shows it's sold out. The fluctuating is more a matter of the refresh on your computer. There's no more jumping into Dopey or the 10k.

Curious to see how long it takes Goofy to show up now.

 

[RunDisney Crazy]

Wow, it went from sold out, to 96% to 95% back to 96%.

Boy, Goofy is nowhere to be found. I think RunDisney with a big bunch of the runners out there overestimated that one. The medal is the key but that comes with Dopey too.

There's no way I can go this year, but I'd love to jump on the Goofy bandwagon and get that 10 Year awesome medal!!!

 

[spryde]

You'd think that but I got a pic of it sold out at 2:19. Refreshing a few times brought it down to 90% then back up to 96%.

I am thinking it may be either a predictive algorithm or they count those in process of signing up.

 

[Ariel484]

Pretty sure it's sold out once it shows it's sold out. The fluctuating is more a matter of the refresh on your computer. There's no more jumping into Dopey or the 10k.

Curious to see how long it takes Goofy to show up now.

You'd think that but I got a pic of it sold out at 2:19. Refreshing a few times brought it down to 90% then back up to 96%.

I am thinking it may be either a predictive algorithm or they count those in process of signing up.

I mean...maybe? The Sold Out indicator for Dopey went away at least 15 minutes ago.

 

[Castle2Castle]

You'd think that but I got a pic of it sold out at 2:19. Refreshing a few times brought it down to 90% then back up to 96%.

I am thinking it may be either a predictive algorithm or they count those in process of signing up.

Yeah, it's behaving differently than the 10k when it hit sold out. Total conjecture, but I wonder with the pace of sales if they didn't call an audible and shift some Goofy slots over to Dopey.

 

[spryde]

Yeah, it's behaving differently than the 10k when it hit sold out. Total conjecture, but I wonder with the pace of sales if they didn't call an audible and shift some Goofy slots over to Dopey.

Possibly but the 10k was and is still sold out and the 5k hasn't budged.

 

[Castle2Castle]

That's what I mean. The 10k could fluctuate between sold out and 98% for a couple refreshes due to the system. For Dopey to go from sold out back down so much, and then to stay there following multiple refreshes - that's different. That's why I wonder if they didn't maybe shift some additional slots from Goofy to Dopey to accomodate additional demand.

 

[spryde]

Understood, what I am stating is the 10k and 5k races, in theory, would be affected if they did the shift as Goofy doesn't touch those. You would think the 10k would be "overfull" and the 5k would have less availability if they did the shuffle as they have a cap on each race overall (would love to know those "hard" numbers").

In any case, it's all going to sell out at some point. Dopey probably today, the 5k in the next few days, and the rest in the next 9 months.

 

[Nulles]

•Dopey Challenge - 96% Full
•Marathon - 50% Full
•Half Marathon - 75% Full
•Walt Disney World® 10K - Sold Out
•Family Fun Run 5K - 95% Full
•Race Retreat - Goofy/Dopey - 50% Full

3:05ET

 

[Castle2Castle]

The 5k and 10k would only be affected when it comes to the number of total runners on the course come race day. On the website, the % would not be affected if runDisney shifted any Goofy slots to Dopey.

It's still just total speculation on my part - they could have just had a system error for all I know - but it wouldnt' impact the site capacity numbers for the 5k and 10k.

 

[faneuil]

5K is full now.

 

[StarGirl11]

5k just sold out. Really glad I managed to talk Dad into letting me register for that today and not had to watch it fill up.

 

[faneuil]

I'm wondering...

When it said the Dopey was sold out, I'm wondering if that was the Runner's World Challenge Dopey Challenge, and not the regular Dopey Challenge.

Which maybe is why it went from sold out back to 95%?

Still no sign of Goofy. Interesting.