Predictions on WDW marathon sell out times?

[StarGirl11]

Dopey link has gone dead and it says on the page it says sold out even if the bar has yet to be updated. So I'm guessing this time it's for real?

 

[Castle2Castle]

runDisney just tweeted that Dopey is sold out, so looks like it's for real this time.

 

[faneuil]

runDisney just tweeted that Dopey is sold out, so looks like it's for real this time.

Wonder how long it will take for Goofy to show up.

 

[IamTrike]

I had friends that said Goofy would be first, but I don't understand how anyone can say that. They want the medal and if you're going to do the half and the full, for a little more, you just soon do Dopey.

With Dopey, the Goofy challenge is kinda left out for those who can't get into Dopey.

And no one ever thinks that the 5ks will fill up fast. How many 'non' runners do the 5K and call it a trip. A LOT.

I can't believe some even said days to fill up. Come one fellows. Look at the recent trend. Even ToT will super quick and it's no anniversary or anything. The days of months to fill up or even weeks are just a distant memory!

Congrats to all who got in!!

I think the problem with Dopey is time. It's two additional days of work. For the Goofy I can fly in Friday morning and out Sunday if I wanted too. I did Dopey last year, but adding the 5k and 10k didn't really ad to the challenge so I'd rather put the money towards something else. Dopey is the only inaugural run that I've done at Disney so it was my chance to be perfect, but I can't see paying 500+ every year for 1 race weekend for 1 person. I kind of figured a lot of people would be one and done with Dopey but I was obviously wrong.

The extra early mornings made us disinclined to go Dopey over Goofy, but the clincher was the extra time it would have required off from work.

completely agree.

Yeah, it's behaving differently than the 10k when it hit sold out. Total conjecture, but I wonder with the pace of sales if they didn't call an audible and shift some Goofy slots over to Dopey.

I don't see how they could do that as the constraining factor is the slots for the the 5 and 10k and Goofy doesn't have any of those slots.

I think last year there were only about 5k dopey spots because about 50% of the 5k/10K slots were set aside for Dopeys.

 

[CaptHomer]

I think the problem with Dopey is time. It's two additional days of work. For the Goofy I can fly in Friday morning and out Sunday if I wanted too. I did Dopey last year, but adding the 5k and 10k didn't really ad to the challenge so I'd rather put the money towards something else. Dopey is the only inaugural run that I've done at Disney so it was my chance to be perfect, but I can't see paying 500+ every year for 1 race weekend for 1 person.

100% with you on this one.

 

[IamTrike]

100% with you on this one.

Yesterday one of my running buddies pointed out that if I wanted a real challenge I'd step up from the Goofy to the king neptune challenge at the VA beach shamrock half marathon. You start in the first half marathon wave and have to finish in less than 1:50 minutes so that you can jump into the last wave of the marathon start. It's doing Goofy in one day but you have to maintain about an 8 minute mile pace for the half.

 

[VAfamily1998]

Yesterday one of my running buddies pointed out that if I wanted a real challenge I'd step up from the Goofy to the king neptune challenge at the VA beach shamrock half marathon. You start in the first half marathon wave and have to finish in less than 1:50 minutes so that you can jump into the last wave of the marathon start. It's doing Goofy in one day but you have to maintain about an 8 minute mile pace for the half.

Wow! Now that sounds like a challenge!

You should do it!!!!

 

[twinsouvenirs]

I am showing on the bars:

Walt Disney World® Marathon 50%
Half Marathon 85%
Walt Disney World® 10K Sold Out
Disney Family Fun Run 5K Sold Out
Dopey Challenge Sold Out


And in the Registration blurb:
•Dopey Challenge - Sold Out
•Marathon - 50% Full
•Half Marathon - 85% Full
•Walt Disney World® 10K - Sold Out
•Family Fun Run 5K - Sold Out
•Race Retreat - Goofy/Dopey - 50% Full

At 4:30

 

[StarGirl11]

Yesterday one of my running buddies pointed out that if I wanted a real challenge I'd step up from the Goofy to the king neptune challenge at the VA beach shamrock half marathon. You start in the first half marathon wave and have to finish in less than 1:50 minutes so that you can jump into the last wave of the marathon start. It's doing Goofy in one day but you have to maintain about an 8 minute mile pace for the half.

-whistles- That's one hell of a race challenge! I'm just hoping to qualify for Boston one day (about an 8 minute pace for my age group and gender) in a marathon. Forget do a challenge like that!

But then again if I can ever build up that stamina who knows!

 

[Dug720]

For me, I never considered Dopey.

Why?

Easy. I despise 5 and 10Ks.

 

[CaptHomer]

Yesterday one of my running buddies pointed out that if I wanted a real challenge I'd step up from the Goofy to the king neptune challenge at the VA beach shamrock half marathon. You start in the first half marathon wave and have to finish in less than 1:50 minutes so that you can jump into the last wave of the marathon start. It's doing Goofy in one day but you have to maintain about an 8 minute mile pace for the half.

Or you can do the Goofy in a day. Had friends last year that did Savannah marathon on Saturday morning then drove and did Wine and Dine that night.

 

[StarGirl11]

For me, I never considered Dopey.

Why?

Easy. I despise 5 and 10Ks.

I much prefer the 10k and up myself. Mainly because it takes almost two miles for me to really get into gear. So a 5k is almost too short of a race for me. But since my Mom can't do anything above a 5k and she adores the Disney races I agreed to sign up for it in addition to the full marathon.

 

[IamTrike]

Or you can do the Goofy in a day. Had friends last year that did Savannah marathon on Saturday morning then drove and did Wine and Dine that night.

Now that sounds like a fun challenge. I'd really like to run Savannah at some point. I think the 5 hour drive between races had to add just that much more to it.

-whistles- That's one hell of a race challenge! I'm just hoping to qualify for Boston one day (about an 8 minute pace for my age group and gender) in a marathon. Forget do a challenge like that!

But then again if I can ever build up that stamina who knows!

I'd love to Boston Qualify someday. Right now I need to be able to run a 7mm to do that and I'm not anywhere close to that. I met with my PT today and he said my form is actually best between a 7 and 7:30 pace so I am going to start working on speed work. Last year my goal was to finish the Goofy portion of Dopey in under 6 hours. I think we did it in a little under 5:55. But if I did that for Neptune the half would be about 5 minutes too slow.

 

[IamTrike]

I think it's interesting that the half and full seem to have stopped going up.

 

[DOOM1001]

I don't see how they could do that as the constraining factor is the slots for the the 5 and 10k and Goofy doesn't have any of those slots.

I think last year there were only about 5k dopey spots because about 50% of the 5k/10K slots were set aside for Dopeys.

I believe Dopey had more in the 7,000 range,I remember that I drove into Disney at around 3am on Friday morning just in time to go be a spectator for the 10k and I was amazed at how the vast majority of those in the race all had Dopey bibs.I'm in more shock that Goofy has yet to show up at 50% for 2015.

 

[Castle2Castle]

Yeah, based on the bib/corral assignments there were about 7,500 Dopey registrations last year. I've seen one claim that it was increased from an original number of around 7,000 due to the demand. If they started with around 7,000 again, and if the original Sold Out indication wasn't due to a technical glitch, they could have pushed it back down to 96% by adding just over a couple hundred more slots again.

But it's also very possible that they just had a glitch which mistakenly reported it sold out before that was actually the case. Especially considering AP early registrations didn't go entirely smoothly, and it sounds like general registration had some speed bumps early on today, too.

 

[longhorns2]

We did goofy. Dopey is too much time at WDW meaning too much $$$ overall. Friday- tues for goofy vs wed- tues for dopey.

 

[derekleigh]

I expected the 10K to sellout quickly, but not in less than 2.5 hours. Dopey and the 5K were both sold out in about 4.5 hours.

I am surprised to see the full already at 50% and no sign of Goofy! I expected Goffy to be up to 50% given its a anniversary year.

I expected these races to sell out by:

Full - 2-3 months
Half - 2 days
Goofy - 1 Month
10K - ~6 hours
5K - < 24 hours
Dopey - < 12 hours

 

[VAfamily1998]

Here's mine:

Dopey--will sell out in about 5 hours
Goofy will sell out in less than 2 hours
Marathon (only) will sell out in 5 days
1/2 marathon (only) will sell out in 26 hours
10k (only) will sell out in 2-3 hours
5k (only) will sell out in less than 1.5 hours

What are your predictions?

Hmmmm...so it looks like my predictions for Dopey, 5k, and 10k were a little off, but somewhat close to accurate.
My prediction for Goofy was WAY off
and time will tell on my marathon and 1/2 marathon predictions.... I think my prediction for the 1/2 is pretty likely to happen, I think the half will sell out by early tomorrow afternoon.

And now that we've seen the first day's results, I think both the Marathon and Goofy will be sold out before next Monday.

 

[twinsouvenirs]

Yeah, looks like the full and half haven't budged since I left work today. I thought there would be another little spike at 5:30/6pm