Predictions on WDW marathon sell out times?

[VAfamily1998]

Yeah, looks like the full and half haven't budged since I left work today. I thought there would be another little spike at 5:30/6pm

Do they automatically update as registrations come in? Or does a human being have to initiate the update in some way? I just thought I remembered from some of the previous recent registrations (W&D, ToT) that they didn't really update during non-business hours--and then sometime in the morning, like after 9 am or so, they would suddenly jump up a lot?

 

[disneygrlkat]

The half is now full. It is still showing as 85% but when I click on the link to register on active.com the waiver page says it is full and won't let me continue.

 

[twinsouvenirs]

The half is now full. It is still showing as 85% but when I click on the link to register on active.com the waiver page says it is full and won't let me continue.

wow! thank you for posting. I cannot believe how quick this went and I'm really glad I listened to people warning me!

 

[twinsouvenirs]

Do they automatically update as registrations come in? Or does a human being have to initiate the update in some way? I just thought I remembered from some of the previous recent registrations (W&D, ToT) that they didn't really update during non-business hours--and then sometime in the morning, like after 9 am or so, they would suddenly jump up a lot?

That makes sense. I just went on active.com and checked and of the main races the only ones not full are goofy and the marathon. (not including kids etc)

 

[IamTrike]

Yeah, based on the bib/corral assignments there were about 7,500 Dopey registrations last year. I've seen one claim that it was increased from an original number of around 7,000 due to the demand. If they started with around 7,000 again, and if the original Sold Out indication wasn't due to a technical glitch, they could have pushed it back down to 96% by adding just over a couple hundred more slots again.

That's really interesting. Thanks for pulling the right number I have no idea why I was thinking 5K Dopey slots. One of the guys I was running with is a big stats guy and we were noticing from our polling that the percentage of bibs we saw for Dopey didn't match the stats that runDisney gave. I can't remember if we were seeing fewer or more Dopey bibs than expected though. I also think the percentages shifted on the 10k day, but we assumed that was because of people having delayed travel plans because of weather.


I pulled the finish results from last year and there were about 6k completed Dopeys and 9K completed Goofy's. If they follow a similar ratio this year 70% of the Goofy slots would be filled up with Dopey Runners. It seems strange that Goofy still wouldn't be at 50% unless they really increased the number of Goofy slots or unless their sell out slots for Goofy only take into account the 3k or so slots that aren't consumed by Dopeys.

 

[Dug720]

That's really interesting. Thanks for pulling the right number I have no idea why I was thinking 5K Dopey slots. One of the guys I was running with is a big stats guy and we were noticing from our polling that the percentage of bibs we saw for Dopey didn't match the stats that runDisney gave. I can't remember if we were seeing fewer or more Dopey bibs than expected though. I also think the percentages shifted on the 10k day, but we assumed that was because of people having delayed travel plans because of weather. I pulled the finish results from last year and there were about 6k completed Dopeys and 9K completed Goofy's. If they follow a similar ratio this year 70% of the Goofy slots would be filled up with Dopey Runners. It seems strange that Goofy still wouldn't be at 50% unless they really increased the number of Goofy slots or unless their sell out slots for Goofy only take into account the 3k or so slots that aren't consumed by Dopeys.

Pretty sure each race has its own allotment of slots that are independent of the others. So however many slots Goofy has are just for people doing "only" Goofy.

 

[VAfamily1998]

Anyone else a little surprised that the Marathon ticker still hasn't budged past 50%? Really? NO ONE has registered for the marathon since last night?

Still shocked that Goofy isn't up there with 50%+ yet...

 

[lifeasiseeit]

My guess? They are going to wait until it hits 75% before they update again.

 

[Castle2Castle]

Yeah, I thought with the Half selling out last night that the Full would at least get a bump to around 60-70%, and that Goofy would at least make an appearance at 50%. Yesterday you could chalk up the freeze to runDisney clocking out for the night, but if people really aren't bothering to register for the remaining openings today I'm surprised.

 

[Ariel484]

My guess? They are going to wait until it hits 75% before they update again.

Maybe? They haven't done that in the past though.

I'm surprised that Goofy isn't there yet. I was expecting it to jump up once Dopey was full.

 

[Dug720]

Maybe? They haven't done that in the past though.

I'm surprised that Goofy isn't there yet. I was expecting it to jump up once Dopey was full.

Yeah... I fear this may be the death knell for Goofy - the fact that it clearly hasn't jumped since Dopey sold out. It's clearly seen as the inferior race option now.

 

[VAfamily1998]

Yeah... I fear this may be the death knell for Goofy - the fact that it clearly hasn't jumped since Dopey sold out. It's clearly seen as the inferior race option now.

It's crazy that a half marathon + a marathon the next day would be considered inferior or "only the goofy."

I don't think they'd stop offering it though--It's still only about 24 hours since registration opened. The Goofy Challenge will still sell out, likely within the next week or so.

 

[StarGirl11]

Yeah... I fear this may be the death knell for Goofy - the fact that it clearly hasn't jumped since Dopey sold out. It's clearly seen as the inferior race option now.

I remember talking with someone on twitter who wondered if some people were making the mistake of registering for the races separately thinking that they were registering for Goofy by accident?

I mean I could see it happening with some people especially the rookie crowd. I mean I had to explain to my Mom how Dopey had it's own separate registration and that no you didn't register for each race one at a time. And she knows how my Dumbo registration works so I'm not sure how she made that mistake.

But it is weird that we haven't seen any progress with Goofy.

 

[DOOM1001]

Anyone else a little surprised that the Marathon ticker still hasn't budged past 50%? Really? NO ONE has registered for the marathon since last night?

Still shocked that Goofy isn't up there with 50%+ yet...

Nothing surprises me anymore,I think in February the registration for the Space Coast marathon opened up and the half sold out in like a couple of days or less.The full however is still surprisingly available.It seems like you have the really extreme people all out to do the Dopey,the 5k,10k and half people but everyone else appears to be cautious of signing up for the full or the Goofy which includes the full.I don't know,its my favorite race of the 4.Where else can you run through 4 parks,WWOS and ride a coaster in the middle of it.

 

[IamTrike]

Nothing surprises me anymore,I think in February the registration for the Space Coast marathon opened up and the half sold out in like a couple of days or less.The full however is still surprisingly available.It seems like you have the really extreme people all out to do the Dopey,the 5k,10k and half people but everyone else appears to be cautious of signing up for the full or the Goofy which includes the full.I don't know,its my favorite race of the 4.Where else can you run through 4 parks,WWOS and ride a coaster in the middle of it.

The full is definitely my favorite race too. For some reason it usually seems less crowded to me. I know there are the same number of people running it, but for some reason at the pace I run it doesn't seem to be quite as crowded during the full.

 

[IamTrike]

Yeah... I fear this may be the death knell for Goofy - the fact that it clearly hasn't jumped since Dopey sold out. It's clearly seen as the inferior race option now.

I know in years past I've been able to sign up for Goofy several months in so not selling out or hitting 50% the first day is hardly considered a failure. I played around using some estimated numbers and this is what I came up with for runDisney's sales yesterday. I'm pretty sure nobody there got in trouble yesterday.

Sold Bibs Cost $
5k 3000 60 $180,000
10k 3000 105 $315,000
Half 15000 170 $2,550,000
Full 7500 170 $1,275,000
Goofy
Dopey 7000 530 $3,710,000
$8,030,000

 

[IamTrike]

Marathon is now at 60% and Goofy is at 50%

 

[DOOM1001]

I know in years past I've been able to sign up for Goofy several months in so not selling out or hitting 50% the first day is hardly considered a failure. I played around using some estimated numbers and this is what I came up with for runDisney's sales yesterday. I'm pretty sure nobody there got in trouble yesterday.

Sold Bibs Cost $
5k 3000 60 $180,000
10k 3000 105 $315,000
Half 15000 170 $2,550,000
Full 7500 170 $1,275,000
Goofy
Dopey 7000 530 $3,710,000
$8,030,000

If Goofy is at 50% then you can add $1,620,000 to those totals for Goofy

4500 X $360=$1,620,000

 

[StarGirl11]

Marathon is now at 60% and Goofy is at 50%

Curious where you saw this website still showing Marathon at 50 and Goofy not there at all?

ETA: Never mind. Go figure they updated the bottom part but not the bars.

 

[DOOM1001]

Curious where you saw this website still showing Marathon at 50 and Goofy not there at all?

ETA: Never mind. Go figure they updated the bottom part but not the bars.

Do they not have space to add a Goofy challenge percent bar?What's with the lack of respect for Goofy,I'm signed up for it and it's the anniversary.